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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.35 |
+112 
|
o6.5 -150 
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.44 |
-124 
|
u7.5 -139 
|
-1.5 +176
|
Tampa Bay
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rasmussens last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rasmussens last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in Rodons last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+105 
|
o7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -205 
|
|
4.14 |
-118
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+136
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -157
|
|
4.10 |
-155
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Abimelec Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
u0.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.54 |
+120
|
o7.0 -123 
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.24 |
-135
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+130
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.18 |
-145
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +158
|
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+218
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
o6.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.60 |
-125
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +176
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.21 |
+117
|
o6.5 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.71 |
-130
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +173
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in Rasmussens last 4 starts on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.64 |
+160
|
o9.0 -129
|
+1.5 -131
|
|
5.06 |
-184
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Williamsons last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Matt McLain o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+160)
o1.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-117
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +149
|
|
4.04 |
+100
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.78 |
+181
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
3.56 |
-210
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +114
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Junks last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
o0.5+295
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+123
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -173
|
|
4.45 |
-140
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +155
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Texas
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
MacKenzie Gore o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+128)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-188
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
4.87 |
+165
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+112)
o2.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+130
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.40 |
-140
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +146
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Javiers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Javiers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.26 |
-107
|
o9.5 +101
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.90 |
-108
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -175
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in Bassos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+154)
o0.5+154
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
-130
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.25 |
+115
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -152
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Emmanuel Rodriguez u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
u1.5-235
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+105
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.76 |
-118
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+196
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+236)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Heliot Ramos has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Heliot Ramos will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 17th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Junior Caminero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today.. Junior Caminero's launch angle of late (19.1° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 9.9° seasonal angle.
TOR
@
BAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:35 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Nathan Lukes is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Nathan Lukes has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 2.8% seasonal rate to 9.1% over the past week.
Total RBIs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the game.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Pete Alonso has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Pete Alonso will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
WAS
@
DET
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Riley Greene u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park projects as the #22 venue in the game for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jackson Kent will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Riley Greene today.. Riley Greene's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 21.1% to 16.9%.
Total Hits
Abimelec Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abimelec Ortiz in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. 38% of the time that Abimelec Ortiz has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Comerica Park projects as the #22 venue in the game for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
MIL
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 3rd-best home run hitter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Hitting from the opposite that Dustin May throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge today.
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.4-mph in this game, the 7th-strongest of the day for pitchers.. The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams today.. Kyle Schwarber has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 16.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.. Kyle Schwarber's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 94.3-mph figure last season has decreased to 92.3-mph.
STL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Andre Pallante in today's game.. Bryan Reynolds will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles PNC Park as the 3rd-best park in baseball for LHB BABIP.. Hitting from the opposite that Jared Jones throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.
CLE
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for run-scoring.. The shallowest LF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park.. Jo Adell will have the handedness advantage against Payton Tolle today.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jo Adell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+117)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for run-scoring.. The shallowest LF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park.. Jo Adell will have the handedness advantage against Payton Tolle today.
CIN
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the league's 17th-best home run hitter.. The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Eugenio Suarez's launch angle in recent games (29.3° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 20.2° seasonal angle.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+126)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Truist Park projects as the #4 stadium in the majors for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
CHW
@
KC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brenton Doyle u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. When starting against a southpaw this year, Brenton Doyle has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.9-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest CF fences today.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all major league stadiums, Kauffman Stadium's RF dimensions are the deepest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.9-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. Considering Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Carter Jensen will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's game.. Carter Jensen has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 11.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 7 days.. By putting up a .229 batting average this year, Carter Jensen grades out in the 23rd percentile.
MIA
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
Projection 0.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 7th-best batter in baseball when it comes to his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Otto Lopez will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
Total Hits
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dansby Swanson is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.. The weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Janson Junk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today's game.. Dansby Swanson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 16.8% to 13.7%.
NYM
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #1 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest CF fences in MLB are found in Globe Life Field.. Wyatt Langford has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 13.8% rate last season has fallen off to 8% this year.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 117° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Juan Soto has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 95.6-mph.
AZ
@
COL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Ildemaro Vargas u0.5 Total Hits (+325)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 4th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ildemaro Vargas in today's game.. Ildemaro Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 40.5% on the season to 33.3% over the last 14 days.. Ildemaro Vargas has been lucky this year, notching a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .270 — a .023 gap.. Using Statcast data, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 11th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .228.
Strikeouts Thrown
Michael Soroka o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125)
Projection 5.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Michael Soroka in the 76th percentile among all SPs in MLB.. The Colorado Rockies have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Zac Veen, Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak).. In his previous GS, Michael Soroka turned in a great performance and posted 10 strikeouts.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Michael Soroka has relied on his non-fastballs 12.2% more often this year (57.2%) than he did last season (45%).. Michael Soroka's 2526-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all starters.
HOU
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
T-Mobile Park profiles as the #29 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense.. Typically, hitters like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristian Javier.. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 39% to 31.6%.. Over the last 14 days, Cal Raleigh's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 31.6%.
Total RBIs
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among every team today.. Christian Walker has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past 14 days.
LAA
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+108)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.. Mike Trout will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Basso in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+101)
Projection 2.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
MIN
@
SF
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
JC
Jonah Cox o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Jonah Cox is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jonah Cox is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest humidity on the slate today at 91%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.5-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Jonah Cox has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Emmanuel Rodriguez u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Emmanuel Rodriguez in the 13th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Emmanuel Rodriguez is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all stadiums, the tallest average fence height are at Oracle Park.. Emmanuel Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.
SD
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-120)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading as a 54% favorite, but I price them closer to 57%, so I'm hitting the button at this price. Justin Wrobleski will open the game, but the Dodgers also plan to use Roki Sasaki in a relief role as he returns from the injured list with a blister and prepares for a potential bullpen role in the postseason. Sasaki in relief is an intriguing weapon because he can empty the tank for a couple of innings, attack hitters with his high-octane four-seamer at the top of the zone and work his splitter off it down in the zone, rather than conserving his arm for 90-plus pitches. That usage is flying under the radar in this matchup, and I think it's a big reason we're seeing an edge at the current market price. Sasaki gives the Dodgers a legitimate weapon in middle relief who can help bridge the game to the back end of their bullpen.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 16th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height in the majors.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
