MLB Picks

Brandon Williamson is returning to Cincinnati following a rehab assignment where he compiled a 5.94 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and 14:12 K/BB across 16.2 innings. He'll handle a normal workload today after recovering from a shoulder injury, but will be in tough against a Padres lineup looking to win a series. Prior to his injury, Williamson owned a 6.81 xERA, and his 41.9% hard-hit rate and low 14% K rate suggest he won't be missing many bats today. Fire up the Padres with confidence.

This abbreviated two-game set saw 14 runs yesterday, but today's matchup doesn't deserve to have the same total, in my opinion. The wind is blowing in, and there is a slight chance of rain, which could create even more disinterest for Washington, which has the worst schedule spot of the week. The Nationals will wrap up today's game and head to Los Angeles to open a series against the Dodgers on Friday. Atlanta also has a massive weekend series on deck against the Phillies. It's a perfect getaway game. Grant Holmes is a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher who has recorded scoreless outings in three of his last five starts, and Brad Lord isn't even as bad as he looks for this Under. He's been great since the All-Star break and will likely pitch only three innings, allowing a bridge reliever to get to Washington's high-leverage arms, which are all available. This should close at 9. I love an afternoon getaway game.

Texas Rangers first baseman Jake Burger is in a strong spot against Athletics left-hander Jacob Lopez this afternoon. Burger enters the matchup with an elite Batters-Box rating and nearly 76% arsenal coverage against Lopez’s pitch mix. He has been crushing the baseball over his last 10 games, posting a .548 SLG, .765 xSLG, .290 ISO and 26.1% barrel rate. Burger has also punished left-handed pitching this season, owning a .636 SLG and 25% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against lefties. Lopez has allowed more than 70% elevation and a nearly 44% hard-hit rate to his last 30 right-handed hitters.

The Baltimore Orioles’ bats may have cooled off recently, but this matchup presents a strong opportunity to expect a bounce-back against Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano owns a 12.75 ERA and 2.42 WHIP over his last three outings and has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box today. He faces a fully elite-rated Orioles lineup featuring seven elite-rated hitters and two with strong ratings. Sugano has allowed five or more runs in five of his last 10 poorly rated matchups. With the Orioles’ power and Sugano’s long leash, there is plenty of upside to alt this prop for better value. Avoid paying juice.

This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries. Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors. Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season. I'd play this matchup to 5x.

Rafael Devers enters tonight as one of the highest-rated hitters on the slate after homering in back-to-back games. While some may be hesitant to back a hitter coming off consecutive home runs, the numbers suggest otherwise. Across 36 elite ratings this season, Devers has surpassed this prop 58.33% of the time and has homered more than 25% of the time. He draws Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler, against whom Devers has nearly 90% arsenal coverage. Devers has also been outstanding over his last 10 games, posting a .789 SLG, .421 ISO, 51.7% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate.

Let's keep it simple off the top: Griffin Jax is coming off the IL after throwing just 42 pitches in his only rehab start. He has been dealing with right elbow discomfort, which is a major red flag, and pushing him much past 60 pitches today seems unlikely. There is also a chance he is innings-capped, as Tampa should be cautious with Jax with a long playoff run on the horizon. He's better than a K-per-inning pitcher, but getting to 15 outs is doubtful today. That was his leash on a full workload; now it could be cut in half. The Rays have all of their middle relievers and long arms available today, giving them little reason to push Jax deep into this game. The market is already moving, and THE BAT is projecting 60 pitches, with a fair price of -150 on this total at that pitch count.

The Tigers are in need of a bounce-back game after surrendering 26 runs across their first two against the Twins, and they may just get it with Dean Kremer on the mound for Minnesota. Not only has he allowed a homer in three straight starts, this Tigers team also seems to have his number, owning a .303 xBA and .510 xSLG across 98 plate appearances against him. Now that's a sample size we can get behind. On the other side, Drew Anderson has been serviceable this year in Detroit, owning a career-best 3.91 xERA and 34.1% chase rate. The Tigers are a live 'dog tonight trading +105, and I'd play them up to -105.

Noah Cameron has been lights out. He owns a 1.29 ERA over his last seven starts, including four scoreless outings, and now faces a Marlins lineup ranked 26th in OPS against lefties over the past month. Eury Perez has been less reliable on the road, while Kansas City has crushed right-handed pitching and won seven of its last eight at home. Add in Miami's inefficient bullpen and a fair price at home, and there’s plenty of ammo to pull the trigger on the KC.

White Sox righty Davis Martin has surrendered a .393 wOBA and .902 OPS to opposing hitters over his past 11 starts, so I'm expecting the Astros to cash in on statistical correction tonight. Houston has the second-lowest xwOBA and lowest BABIP in the majors across the past 30 days despite ranking 13th in hard-hit rate, after all. Plus, Astros righty Hayden Wesneski has found a groove with just a single run allowed on four hits for a 2.64 xERA across his past two starts.

The Los Angeles Angels slot 28th in wOBA and 29th in K% against right-handed pitching the past month, and now they draw Cam Schlittler.

Schlittler ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value and 94th percentile in K% this season. He also owns a remarkably strong 1.14 ERA over 15 starts away from Yankee Stadium.

You’d be hard pressed to find a worse matchup for the Angels to get going offensively.