MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 15, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Fri, May 15 • 6:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Philadelphia Phillies logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo u8.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Recent history and current form both point toward a low-scoring matchup in Pittsburgh. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have stayed Under, while both starters are trending positively. Aaron Nola has settled down lately, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to pitch consistently. With both bullpens also performing better recently, runs could be limited tonight.

Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT (-129)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

The Pirates enter this series with momentum, winning three straight against Philadelphia dating back to last season while handing the ball to breakout starter Braxton Ashcraft. The right-hander owns a 2.77 ERA and has allowed just one run across his last two starts. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola continues to struggle, especially on the road, giving Pittsburgh a strong edge.

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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Fri, May 15 • 6:45 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Runs
Taylor Ward logo Taylor Ward o0.5 Runs (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Taylor Ward continues to produce for the Orioles, scoring 28 runs through 43 games while heating up at the plate recently. He’s crossed home in back-to-back contests and now faces Zack Littell, who owns a 6.94 ERA. Ward has crushed Littell historically, going 4-for-8 with two homers and three RBI against him.

Total Hits
Luis Garcia Jr. logo
Luis Garcia Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.94
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Luis Garcia Jr. has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense.. Luis Garcia Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 15.3% to 10.7%.. By putting up a 3.42 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Luis Garcia Jr. has shown weak plate discipline, checking in at the 24th percentile.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Fri, May 15 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Wenceel Perez logo
Wenceel Perez u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 38 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wenceel Perez's BABIP skill is projected in the 17th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wenceel Perez is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.. Wenceel Perez has been pulled from the game early 17% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-deepest centerfield fences in the majors.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Hits
Colt Keith logo
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Colt Keith has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 42% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.8-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Colt Keith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 78th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.. Colt Keith has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Fri, May 15 • 7:10 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Sal Stewart logo
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 3rd-best park in baseball for right-handed BABIP.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Sal Stewart has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Rhys Hoskins logo
Rhys Hoskins o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.52
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 3rd-best park in baseball for right-handed BABIP.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Rhys Hoskins will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Abbott in today's game.. Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Fri, May 15 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jonathan Aranda logo
Jonathan Aranda u0.5 Total Hits (+203)
Projection 0.96
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #4 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. In the last two weeks, Jonathan Aranda's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 93.2 mph to 89.9 mph.. Jonathan Aranda has been lucky this year, notching a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .031 discrepancy.
Total Bases
Kyle Stowers logo
Kyle Stowers o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage against Jesse Scholtens in today's game.. Kyle Stowers has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jesse Scholtens has a pitch-to-contact profile (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. Kyle Stowers pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Fri, May 15 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park profiles as the #5 ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez logo
Carlos Narvaez o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.28
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Truist Park profiles as the #5 ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Compared to last season, Carlos Narvaez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.8% to 17.5% this season.. Carlos Narvaez's 91.1-mph average exit velocity is among the best in the league since the start of last season: 79th percentile.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ New York Mets logo NYM Fri, May 15 • 7:15 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Cam Schlittler logo Cam Schlittler o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-138)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Cam Schlittler has quickly become one of the Yankees’ most reliable starters, posting a stellar 1.35 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. He’s struck out six or more batters in two of his last four starts and now faces a struggling Mets lineup. Schlittler’s dominant 0.98 road ERA makes this matchup even more appealing.

Total Bases
Trent Grisham logo
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 38 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Clay Holmes in today's matchup.. Trent Grisham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.7°, Trent Grisham has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.1° angle in the past two weeks.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Fri, May 15 • 7:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Edward Cabrera logo Edward Cabrera o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Edward Cabrera enters tonight’s matchup in strong strikeout form, clearing this line in three straight starts while piling up 43 punchouts in 46.1 innings overall. The White Sox are one of baseball’s most strikeout-prone teams, ranking near the bottom of MLB in contact metrics, giving Cabrera another favorable spot to rack up Ks.

Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Seiya Suzuki projects as the 17th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #8 ballpark in the league for overall right-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.. Seiya Suzuki has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 93.7-mph average.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Houston Astros logo HOU Fri, May 15 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez logo
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.17
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty home runs.. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in the league.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 4th-best field in the league for righty home runs.. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences among all parks.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jake Burger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 96-mph recently.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Jake Burger has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 42.8° angle in the past week.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Fri, May 15 • 8:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jordan Walker logo
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. In MLB, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°.. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera logo
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°.. Extreme groundball batters like Ivan Herrera usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael Wacha.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Fri, May 15 • 8:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Colorado Rockies logo o12.5 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Kyle Freeland has surrendered a 1.032 OPS against Diamondbacks hitters, while Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly has been a disaster in 2026, carrying a 9.92 xERA and a .346 xBA. Playing at the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, expect these two offenses to have a field day in the thin air.

Total Hits
Edouard Julien logo
Edouard Julien u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Edouard Julien is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. Edouard Julien has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Edouard Julien has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past two weeks.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.2°, Edouard Julien has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-4.7°) over the past two weeks.. In notching a .288 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Edouard Julien grades out in the 20th percentile.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Fri, May 15 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #9 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Total Hits
Sebastian Rivero logo
Sebastian Rivero u0.5 Total Hits (-114)
Projection 0.51
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sebastian Rivero in the 0th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Sebastian Rivero is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.. The #9 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. In the last 7 days, Sebastian Rivero has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power).
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Fri, May 15 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Randy Arozarena logo
Randy Arozarena u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game forecasts the lowest temperature on the slate at 52°.. Randy Vasquez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Arozarena in today's game.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill logo
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jackson Merrill's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.7-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for bats.. Jackson Merrill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's game... and even more favorably, Hancock has a large platoon split.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Fri, May 15 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Carlos Cortes logo
Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 44 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Carlos Cortes's BABIP talent is projected in the 17th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. 38% of the time that Carlos Cortes has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Carlos Cortes hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Carlos Cortes has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.. In the last two weeks, Carlos Cortes's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 93 mph to 90.5 mph.
Total Bases
Matt Chapman logo
Matt Chapman o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. The #2 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 2 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo u8.0 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Pick made: 9 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.

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