MLB Picks

After finishing fourth in the AL MVP race in 2024, Gunnar Henderson had a bit of a down year in 2025. However, he's hitting the ball well again and has a great matchup today. Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile in overall offensive talent according to THE BAT X, and he's slugging .691 over the last two weeks. He'll have the platoon advantage at home against Arizona starter Merril Kelly and there's a 13 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Kelly is making his season debut after dealing with a back ailment and he logged a 4.16 xERA in 32 starts last year. The D-Backs have one of the worst bullpens in the majors behind him.

Pete Alonso crushed a home run on Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and a fan in a Polar Bear costume caught it—if that’s not a sign to run it back on Tuesday, I don’t know what is. Alonso is listed at +427 to hit a home run, but I make the fair price closer to +350. The weather at Camden Yards is also favorable, with the wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph and temperatures expected to be in the high 80s—ideal conditions for power hitting. If you’re into BvP, you’ll also like that Alonso has three home runs in 19 career at-bats against Merrill Kelly.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Let's keep on keeping on with the Tigers here. They are coming off a sweep of the Marlins and now get to face Cole Ragans, who is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA. Detroit will have the edge on the bump with Framber Valdez, and with the offense finally clicking, a short home favorite seems the right play. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Spencer Torkelson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Comerica Park as the 10th-best park in baseball for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.. There has been a decrease in Eugenio Suarez's average exit velocity this season, from 90.2 mph last year to 83.9 mph now. Over the past 7 days, Eugenio Suarez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 93.8 mph to 83.9 mph.. There has been a significant decline in Eugenio Suarez's launch angle from last season's 22° to 16.5° this year.. As it relates to his home runs, Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 42.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.6.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 17th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Spencer Steer is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Spencer Steer tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.. Spencer Steer has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 22.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 19.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Ranking in the 17th percentile, Spencer Steer has posted a .224 batting average since the start of last season.

When I go square, I want all the checkmarks, and I’m getting them in this Pittsburgh Pirates spot. Oneil Cruz is a Top-5 hitter in baseball in swing speed and leads all batters in Blast Contact%, a stat that combines fast swings with barrels. Swing hard and square it up — simple. Cruz gets a heavenly matchup vs. Miles Mikolas, who might be looking for a new job soon. Mikolas has been getting lit up, allowing 19 runs in just over 12 innings with five home runs surrendered. He’s unlikely to go deep, and Pittsburgh should also get cracks at a taxed Washington Nationals bullpen after hanging 16 runs on them last night. There might be four arms unavailable today from that Washington pen. Elite form, double-digit winds blowing out, a great matchup, and a depleted bullpen all point to upside. I’m willing to go a bit shorter here at +330 and would still play it down to +300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP ability.. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. James Wood has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 16.1% rate last season to 23.1% this year.

When I’m backing a big dog, I’ll happily take an offense like the Los Angeles Angels, which has been a Top-10 unit over the last week and is coming off a 10-run outing yesterday. They got to the New York bullpen early, tagging it for six runs and two home runs, which is key to their chances again today. Ryan Weathers is coming off a career-high 101 pitches in his last start after relatively light workloads throughout his six MLB seasons, which adds some uncertainty to his leash. THE BAT projects a fair price closer to +125 for the Halos, making +158 a strong value spot.

When it comes to his home run skill, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Jorge Soler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today's game.

The 4th-shallowest CF dimensions among all parks are found in Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage over Reynaldo Lopez in today's matchup.. Graham Pauley has been lifting the ball well lately, notching a 25.3° launch angle over the last two weeks.

The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. The 4th-shallowest CF dimensions among all parks are found in Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage over Reynaldo Lopez in today's matchup.

The Toronto Blue Jays are listed as +114 underdogs on the moneyline, and I’m hitting that number—I actually believe they should be slight favorites, closer to -110. The Brewers will be without Christian Yelich in the middle of their order, which means they’ll be relying on Jake Bauers and Gary Sánchez to provide power. Both are boom-or-bust hitters, and Kevin Gausman is well-equipped to take advantage of that. By tunneling his splitter off his four-seam fastball, Gausman should be able to keep them off balance and exploit their high swing-and-miss tendencies at the plate.

When it comes to his home run talent, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 8th-best park in the league for right-handed home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, American Family Field's CF fences are the 7th-shallowest.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #5 ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The #5 ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this season (28.4°) is significantly higher than his 23.3° figure last year.. Cedric Mullins's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 14.3% on the season to 27.3% in the last week.

Let’s call it what it is—this price is simply too good to pass up on one of the premier hitters in MLB, especially in a ballpark that favors power given Tuesday’s weather forecast. José Ramírez is listed at +551 to hit a home run on Tuesday, but I make it closer to +435, which creates a clear edge and makes this a bet worth attacking. He also looked comfortable at the plate in this park on Monday, going 2-for-4 with a walk—an encouraging sign that he’s seeing the ball well. On the mound, Michael McGreevy may be off to a solid start, but his underlying splits are a concern. Left-handed hitters tagged him for a .318 average with nine home runs in just 173 at-bats last season, which sets up well for Ramírez in this matchup.

McGreevy's underlying metrics suggest Cleveland will score, while Cantillo's command issues against a right-handed heavy lineup and gusty winds blowing out mean a few free passes could turn into a run explosion in a hurry. Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine. The Cardinals' pen can't miss bats. Play the Over. 

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best park in the majors for righty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Hunter Goodman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Hunter Goodman has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colton Gordon doesn't generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best park in the majors for righty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Hunter Goodman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Hunter Goodman has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colton Gordon doesn't generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Michael King today.. Luke Raley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Luke Raley has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 96.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Michael King today.. Luke Raley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

This matchup features two left-handed starters against lineups that have been awful vs southpaws, ranking 26th and 27th in OPS. MacKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.45 ERA) and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA. Jeffrey Springs has been even better, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, highlighted by a one-hit gem over seven innings at Yankee Stadium his last time out. Oakland is always an Under candidate as they've already scored one run or fewer six times, including each of their last two.

 

Nick Kurtz projects as the 8th-best home run hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Nick Kurtz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium is easily the marquee matchup of the night, and I’m backing the Mets in what could very well be an NLCS preview. The Mets are listed at +181 on Pinnacle, but I make them closer to +130, so there’s clear value at this price. While the Dodgers lineup—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy—typically thrives against right-handed pitching, that edge diminishes against elite arms. McLean fits that profile with his high-end stuff and impressive spin rates. He has the ability to neutralize left-handed power by burying back-foot sliders and mixing in his curveball to keep hitters off balance, which should help limit hard contact and suppress their power upside.

A team with Nolan McLean as their starting pitcher shouldn’t be priced at +186. 

The 24-year-old has a 2.23 ERA across 11 starts in the Big Leagues and has flashed elite stuff this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity. 

The offense could reasonably plate several runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to ramp up to “elite mode” with a pedestrian 3.62 xERA and 20.9% K rate in three starts.