Another busy schedule means a lot of opportunity for bombs, and I've found value in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Today's picks include Yordan Alvarez, CJ Abrams, and Drake Baldwin.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 25.
Best MLB home run props today
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CJ Abrams
Yordan Alvarez
Home run pick: CJ Abrams (+495)
Washington Nationals star CJ Abrams cannot be stopped right now.
The shortstop has a .560 ISO across his last six games, and he's homered four times during that span. What really stands out here is Abrams' mind-boggling 22.2% barrel rate in the last week. He's tearing the cover off the baseball.
Abrams will face struggling Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Mitch Bratt, who owns a 9.10 FIP in his last two appearances while allowing 3.52 HR/9. The Arizona bullpen hasn't been giving up a ton of homers lately, but they're vulnerable at times, posting a 4.75 xERA in the last week.
Abrams has lots of opportunity here to go yard again.
I'll play this pick down to +300.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Nationals.TV
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+208)
Yordan Alvarez has smacked three bombs in his last six games while posting a .438 ISO. The underlying numbers hint at another homer tonight -- Alvarez owns a 21.1% barrel rate and 52.6% hard-hit rate during the last week. He's jumping on everything.
The Houston Astros slugger will face Sean Burke tonight. He's been vulnerable at times against left-handed hitters, giving up 1.15 HR/9 this season. The Chicago White Sox bullpen has allowed that same number of homers in the last two weeks.
With three long balls in his previous four appearances alone, there's value here.
I'll play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, CHSN
- HR picks: 16-81, -6.49 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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