Another busy schedule means a lot of opportunity for bombs, and I've found value in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Today's picks include Yordan Alvarez, CJ Abrams, and Drake Baldwin.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 25.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Home run pick: CJ Abrams (+495)
Washington Nationals star CJ Abrams cannot be stopped right now.
The shortstop has a .560 ISO across his last six games, and he's homered four times during that span. What really stands out here is Abrams' mind-boggling 22.2% barrel rate in the last week. He's tearing the cover off the baseball.
Abrams will face struggling Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Mitch Bratt, who owns a 9.10 FIP in his last two appearances while allowing 3.52 HR/9. The Arizona bullpen hasn't been giving up a ton of homers lately, but they're vulnerable at times, posting a 4.75 xERA in the last week.
Abrams has lots of opportunity here to go yard again.
I'll play this pick down to +300.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Nationals.TV
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+208)
Yordan Alvarez has smacked three bombs in his last six games while posting a .438 ISO. The underlying numbers hint at another homer tonight -- Alvarez owns a 21.1% barrel rate and 52.6% hard-hit rate during the last week. He's jumping on everything.
The Houston Astros slugger will face Sean Burke tonight. He's been vulnerable at times against left-handed hitters, giving up 1.15 HR/9 this season. The Chicago White Sox bullpen has allowed that same number of homers in the last two weeks.
With three long balls in his previous four appearances alone, there's value here.
I'll play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, CHSN
Home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+310)
Drake Baldwin has broken out as one of the Atlanta Braves' top power bats this season, and he's scorching hot right now. The catcher has clubbed four home runs in his last seven games while posting a .429 ISO.
Baldwin has put 39% of his contact in the air during that span, and they've left the yard 44.4% of the time. He'll face Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young tonight, who has allowed just 1.13 HR/9 over the last month.
However, Young is vulnerable to fly balls right now. Nearly 50% of his contact in his last 23.1 innings is in the air, and opponents are averaging a 21.1 launch angle and 43.7% hard-hit rate. The O's bullpen is also allowing 2.16 HR/9 in their last 16.1 frames.
I'll play this pick down to +250.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, MASN
- HR picks: 16-81, -6.49 units
Today’s HR parlay
 CJ Abrams |
Bet Now +6949 |
 Drake Baldwin |
|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
