MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 7, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Nathan Church logo
Nathan Church o1.5 Total Bases (+300)
Projection 1.18
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nathan Church will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Nathan Church will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Nathan Church's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 14.3%.
Total Bases
Jimmy Crooks logo
Jimmy Crooks o1.5 Total Bases (+400)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jimmy Crooks in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Jacob Misiorowski throws from, Jimmy Crooks will have an edge in today's game.. Jimmy Crooks will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Tue, Jul 7 • 6:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Alex Bregman logo
Alex Bregman o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team today.. Over the last two weeks, Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 94.2-mph lately.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson logo
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.61
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #9 stadium in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.
Total Bases
Riley Greene logo
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Comerica Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Dominic Canzone has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 34% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles LoanDepot Park as the 7th-worst field in baseball for left-handed batting average.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dominic Canzone in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh logo
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
LoanDepot Park ranks as the #29 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Michael Harris II logo
Michael Harris II o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Michael Harris II's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Michael Harris II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.
Total Bases
Matt Olson logo
Matt Olson o1.5 Total Bases (+126)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Anthony Volpe logo
Anthony Volpe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Anthony Volpe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ian Seymour in today's game.
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt logo
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Ian Seymour throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have the upper hand today.. Paul Goldschmidt has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Tue, Jul 7 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Keibert Ruiz logo
Keibert Ruiz o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.45
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Tatsuya Imai... and even better, Imai has a large platoon split.. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Keibert Ruiz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph average.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. CJ Abrams is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Tatsuya Imai today... and the cherry on top, Imai has a large platoon split.. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Cincinnati Reds logo CIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
8 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 ballpark in the league for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Sal Stewart logo
Sal Stewart o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.21
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the best field in the league for righty home runs.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Sal Stewart has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Mets logo NYM Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
8 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Projection 0.31
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in the league.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage over Seth Lugo today.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Kameron Misner logo
Kameron Misner o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+210)
Projection 1.42
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga in today's matchup.. Kameron Misner's speed has improved this year. His 28.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.33 ft/sec now.. Grading out in the 79th percentile, Kameron Misner has notched a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kahlil Watson logo
Kahlil Watson u0.5 Total Hits (+132)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kahlil Watson in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. This year, Kahlil Watson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Among all stadiums, Target Field's CF fences are the 10th-deepest.. Kahlil Watson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Over the last week, Kahlil Watson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 93.7 mph to 82.8 mph.
Total Bases
Ryan Kreidler logo
Ryan Kreidler u1.5 Total Bases (-310)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Kreidler in the 5th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Ryan Kreidler is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Ryan Kreidler has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time.. Target Field profiles as the #23 park in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
5 Computer Picks
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+138)
Projection 2.13
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Colson Montgomery will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #6 stadium in the league for overall righty offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Schultz has a large platoon split.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 7 • 8:05 PM ET
6 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Alejandro Osuna logo
Alejandro Osuna u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.74
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
35% of the time that Alejandro Osuna has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Alejandro Osuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. This season, Alejandro Osuna's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6% last year to just 0% this year.
Total Hits
Nicky Lopez logo
Nicky Lopez u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nicky Lopez in the 4th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.. Nicky Lopez has been pulled from the game early 21% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the league are found in Globe Life Field.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ San Diego Padres logo SD Tue, Jul 7 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.18
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Jul 7 • 9:45 PM ET
3 Computer Picks
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Over the last week, Kazuma Okamoto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15% up to 25%.. In the last 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.1-mph over the course of the season to 102.1-mph of late.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ernie Clement logo
Ernie Clement o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.05
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. In the past two weeks, Ernie Clement's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.1%.. Sporting a .296 batting average this year, Ernie Clement is positioned in the 95th percentile.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Tue, Jul 7 • 10:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best field in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Teoscar Hernandez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 96.1-mph in the past 7 days.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
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Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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