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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+130 
|
o7.5 -107 
|
+1.5 -161
|
|
4.54 |
-142
|
u7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +146 
|
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 on fieldturf.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5 +200
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
+124
|
o9.5 -107
|
+1.5 -161
|
|
4.94 |
-137
|
u9.5 -107
|
-1.5 +146
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Obers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Twins are 5-0 in Obers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5 +130
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
+101
|
o7.5 -116
|
-1.5 +168
|
|
4.15 |
-112
|
u8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -183
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5 +150
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.89 |
+105
|
o8.5 +101
|
+1.5 -199 
|
|
4.86 |
-116
|
u8.5 -106
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Assads last 6 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Assads last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5 +194
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
+110
|
o7.0 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.45 |
-125
|
u7.5 -131
|
-1.5 +176
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-0 in Perezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Tyrone Taylor o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
o1.5 +250
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-112
|
o9.5 -103
|
-1.5 +138
|
|
5.05 |
+105
|
u9.5 -106
|
+1.5 -148
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 8-0 in Pirates last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Greenes last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5 +190
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.58 |
+130 
|
o9.5 -112
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
5.99 |
-142
|
u10.0 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Atlanta
- Under is 7-0 in Braves last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5 +155
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.78 |
-161
|
o10.5 +101
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.79 |
+146
|
u10.5 -110
|
+1.5 -112
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
o1.5 +121
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.22 |
+114
|
o8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -183
|
|
5.06 |
-126
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +162
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
JP Sears o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o3.5 +120
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
+136
|
o8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
5.77 |
-148
|
u8.5 +101
|
-1.5 +135
|
Seattle
- Under is 4-0-1 in Woos last 5 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Woos last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mariners last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 8-0 in Sasakis last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Sasakis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Sasakis last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5 +145
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-121
|
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
Chi. Cubs
- Under is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 interleague starts.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Imanagas last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-116
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 6-0 in Skenes' last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Skenes' last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Skenes' last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Skenes' last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Greenes last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 7-1 in Reds last 8 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-107
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-121
|
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Phillies last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Phillies last 12 interleague games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 6-0 in Youngs last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 6-0 in Youngs last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+124
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0 in Leahys last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-0 in Leahys last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Ceases last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-161
|
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as an underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. National League West.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-126
|
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 8-1 in Marlins last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0 in Peraltas last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Griffins last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Griffins last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Under is 6-0 in Elders last 6 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+124
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-155
|
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-1 in Rangers last 9 during game 1 of a series.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Suganos last 4 interleague starts.
- Rockies are 4-0 in Suganos last 4 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-183
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
+158
|
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Drohans last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0-1 in Angels last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Angels last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-148
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
+119
|
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Under is 6-0 in last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+119
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 overall.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 on grass.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+146 
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-191
|
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+158
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-191
|
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 8-0 in Twins last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 overall.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 overall.
TEX
@
TB
Thu, Jul 30 • 12:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 15th-best batter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 35.7% to 41.2%.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+176)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Ezequiel Duran is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #4 park in the majors for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane McClanahan throws from, Ezequiel Duran will have an advantage in today's game.. Ezequiel Duran has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
KC
@
MIN
Thu, Jul 30 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Isaac Collins o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Hits
Royce Lewis u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. In MLB, Target Field's CF dimensions are the 10th-deepest.. Royce Lewis has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.. Over the past 7 days, Royce Lewis's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.3%.. Royce Lewis has put up a .288 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
NYY
@
CHW
Thu, Jul 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Weather's short extension robs his fastball of late deception, and Chicago's lefties are recognizing it early, exposing his 1.42 HR/9 to their .168 ISO against southpaws. Burke isn't airtight either: a 3.81 home xFIP and 1.11 HR/9 should allow the Yankees bats to do their share of the scoring today. Both bullpens raise the floor even further; Yankees relievers are walking 13.0% of hitters over the last 14 days, while Chicago's pen carries a 4.09 ERA. I am taking the Over to 8.5 runs.
Moneyline
CHW (-112)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago starter Sean Burke’s 83rd-percentile extension (6.8 feet) allows his 94.9 mph heater to play like 96+ mph, lowering hard contact (35.0% Hard-Hit rate), which should slow a longball-reliant Yankees lineup. Conversely, Yankees starter Ryan Weathers' shorter extension (5.8 feet) leaves his four-seamer sitting in the zone, exposing him and his .441 xSLG to Chicago's .168 ISO against lefties. Take the Sox today!
CHC
@
STL
Thu, Jul 30 • 2:15 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (-121)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Shota Imanaga is coming off two straight quality starts, tossing 13 consecutive scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has struggled against the Cubs throughout his career, with Chicago slashing .343/.413/.552 against the right-hander. Back the Cubs on Thursday afternoon.
Total Bases
Blaze Jordan u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Blaze Jordan is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium ranks as the #26 venue in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Blaze Jordan will not have the upper hand in today's game.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the best out of every team in action today.. In the last 7 days, Blaze Jordan's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 96.7 mph to 94.1 mph.
MIA
@
NYM
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.29
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Francisco Alvarez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 16% seasonal rate to 25% in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Francisco Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 96.3-mph over the past week.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Lindor's launch angle of late (30.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 15.5° seasonal figure.
PIT
@
CIN
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yohan Ramirez will hold the platoon advantage against Eugenio Suarez in today's matchup.. Eugenio Suarez's launch angle this season (18.7°) is a significant dropoff from his 22° angle last year.. Eugenio Suarez has compiled a .201 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. By putting up a 4.2 K/BB rate this year, Eugenio Suarez has displayed bad plate discipline, checking in at the 11th percentile.. Eugenio Suarez has posted a .204 batting average this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in the majors for run-scoring.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Sal Stewart has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
WAS
@
ATL
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+136)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Truist Park profiles as the #10 field in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 8th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Truist Park profiles as the #10 field in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 8th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
BOS
@
ATH
Thu, Jul 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+119)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #2 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 103°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.9-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 2.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #2 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 103°.
SF
@
SD
Thu, Jul 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Heliot Ramos's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Given JP Sears's large platoon split, Heliot Ramos will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Heliot Ramos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Willy Adames o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Because of JP Sears's large platoon split, Willy Adames will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.
SEA
@
LAD
Thu, Jul 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Andy Pages is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest fences among all major league parks.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average ability, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 13th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest fences among all major league parks.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Total Hits
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits (-130)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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