MLB Picks

Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.64 xFIP and ranks in the 16th percentile in xERA yet it sits at 1.88. He is heading for significant regression, and the Texas Rangers are capable of forcing the issue. They rank Top-5 in batting average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and hard hit rate against right-handed pitching on the road.

In addition to the favorable weather at Coors Field, with the wind blowing out to his pull side, the matchup against Merrill Kelly is the main reason we’re attacking this home run prop for Hunter Goodman. Kelly relies heavily on a four-seam fastball, cutter, and sinker combination, but he’s not a power pitcher who can simply blow hitters away. He depends much more on command and precise pitch location. That’s a dangerous matchup against Goodman, who hunts fastballs and loves to pull the ball with authority. That aggressive approach can be problematic against high-velocity pitchers, but Kelly doesn’t fit that profile. Instead, Kelly throws the exact type of pitches Goodman can drive out of the ballpark, especially at Coors Field, where the altitude can impact both movement and command. If Kelly misses his spots, he doesn’t have elite velocity to bail him out.

Both teams are trending toward the Under. The Dodgers are 5-10 in their last 15 and have the lethal Blake Snell on the bump, while the Angels are 3-11 O/U in their last 14 and couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.

The San Diego Padres are heating up and have already swept the Seattle Mariners once this season. Randy Vasquez has been far more effective on the road, posting a 1.93 ERA away from Petco Park and allowing only three earned runs across his last two road starts. Emerson Hancock has struggled recently at home, while Seattle has dropped four of its last six games at T-Mobile Park.

Ramos hasa great HR matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right and Aaron Civale on the mound. The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.