MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Davis Martin logo
Davis Martin u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+122)
Projection 4.41
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-worst venue in MLB for strikeouts.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Davis Martin's cut-fastball percentage has fallen by 8.3% from last season to this one (22.9% to 14.6%) .. Considering the 0.85 difference between Davis Martin's 9.36 K/9 and his 8.51 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in future games.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 51 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Truist Park grades out as the #8 field in the league for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu logo
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 51 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Truist Park grades out as the #8 field in the league for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 2 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo u8.0 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Pick made: 10 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.

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