MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 22, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Wed, Apr 22 • 12:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jakob Marsee logo
Jakob Marsee u0.5 Total Hits (+187)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 4th-deepest RF dimensions among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. This season, Jakob Marsee's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 8.1% last year to just 1.6% this year.. Jakob Marsee has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 83.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.
Total Hits
Nathan Church logo
Nathan Church u0.5 Total Hits (+171)
Projection 0.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Church in the 24th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Nathan Church is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.. When starting against a northpaw this year, Nathan Church has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time.. The 4th-deepest RF dimensions among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Wed, Apr 22 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez logo
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Projection 2.03
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the league.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The #3 field in baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-most humidity on the slate at 76%.
Total Bases
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Manzardo has been pinch hit for 23% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. In Major League Baseball, the 4th-tallest fences are at Progressive Field.. Kyle Manzardo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 18.7% to 11.4%.. With a .219 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Kyle Manzardo finds himself in the 13th percentile.. Kyle Manzardo has put up a .270 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 20th percentile.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Wed, Apr 22 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Nathaniel Lowe logo
Nathaniel Lowe u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.. The #4 ballpark in the game for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathaniel Lowe in today's game.. Nathaniel Lowe's quickness has declined this season. His 26.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.17 ft/sec now.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.285) provides evidence that Nathaniel Lowe has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .301 actual wOBA.
Total Hits
Ryan Vilade logo
Ryan Vilade u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Vilade in the 12th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 4th-worst venue in the game for righty BABIP.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Ryan Vilade's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.69 ft/sec now.. Sporting a .187 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ryan Vilade grades out in the 16th percentile.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Wed, Apr 22 • 2:10 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Baltimore Orioles logo Kansas City Royals logo u9.5 (-126)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Wacha may be outperforming his metrics, but his 23.5% strikeout rate and 33% chase rate are legitimate, and Baltimore's lineup punches out 25% of the time against right-handers. 

Kansas City's bullpen may be a disaster, but they won't be tested much if Wacha deals deep into the game. Kansas City's hacky lineup will swing early and often against Bassitt, which should help the struggling Orioles starter.

With two pitchers doing just enough against two aggressive lineups, runs might be hard to come by. Take the Under.

Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles logo BAL (+115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

The Baltimore Orioles lineup is already rolling, scoring 12 runs in this series, and this is not a soft landing spot. The Orioles also hold a clear bullpen edge, with a reliable relief group compared to the Kansas City Royals' struggles. 

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Wed, Apr 22 • 3:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Nathan Lukes logo
Nathan Lukes u0.5 Total Hits (+181)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nathan Lukes has been pinch hit for 35% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.. Nathan Lukes has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nathan Lukes today.. Nathan Lukes has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 5% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.
Total Hits
Tyler Heineman logo
Tyler Heineman u0.5 Total Hits (-105)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 40 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler Heineman ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tyler Heineman is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Tyler Heineman will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Jose Soriano. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tyler Heineman in today's matchup.. Tyler Heineman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.3-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the last 7 days.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Wed, Apr 22 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone u0.5 Total Hits (+141)
Projection 0.75
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dominic Canzone is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the league for lefty batting average.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this contest predicts the 4th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 57°.. Dominic Canzone's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 94.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 92.3-mph in the past week.
Total Hits
Carlos Cortes logo
Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Carlos Cortes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 47% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the league for lefty batting average.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this contest predicts the 4th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 57°.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Wed, Apr 22 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Sal Frelick logo
Sal Frelick u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 44 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.. The 2nd-deepest centerfield fences in the league are found in Comerica Park.. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sal Frelick in today's matchup.. Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the last 7 days.. Sal Frelick's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 41.1% to 29.1%.
Total Bases
Kerry Carpenter logo
Kerry Carpenter o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Comerica Park as the 10th-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense.. Kerry Carpenter will hold the platoon advantage against Chad Patrick today.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Wed, Apr 22 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Keibert Ruiz logo
Keibert Ruiz u0.5 Total Hits (+138)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today's game.. The #4 ballpark in the majors for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will bat from his bad side (0) today against Martin Perez
Total Hits
Ozzie Albies logo
Ozzie Albies u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Nationals Park grades out as the #28 park in the game for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will bat from his bad side (0) today against Zack Littell. Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Wed, Apr 22 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk logo
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+143)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Randal Grichuk is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Randal Grichuk has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 45% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather report for this game projects the lowest temperature on the slate at 45°.
Total Hits
Trevor Story logo
Trevor Story u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather report for this game projects the lowest temperature on the slate at 45°.. Trevor Story's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 93.2-mph average last season has lowered to 88.9-mph.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.8°, Trevor Story has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.4°) in the last 14 days.. Sporting a 5.8 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Trevor Story has shown bad plate discipline, checking in at the 4th percentile.
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Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ New York Mets logo NYM Wed, Apr 22 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.. Connor Prielipp will have the handedness advantage against Juan Soto in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Mark Vientos logo
Mark Vientos u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Citi Field ranks as the #29 venue in MLB for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.. Mark Vientos has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11.2% rate last year has fallen off to 4.7% this year.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.6°, Mark Vientos has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.7°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Wed, Apr 22 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Edmundo Sosa logo
Edmundo Sosa u0.5 Total Hits (+115)
Projection 0.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Edmundo Sosa is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.. Since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa has been pulled from the game early in 26% of his appearances when starting against lefty hurler.. The #8 ballpark in the league for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to drop to the 2nd-lowest level on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
Total Bases
Carson Kelly logo
Carson Kelly u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Wrigley Field ranks as the #26 field in the league for overall righty offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The league's 7th-highest average fence height can be found at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to drop to the 2nd-lowest level on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Taijuan Walker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carson Kelly today.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Wed, Apr 22 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-159)
Projection 0.91
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst field in the league for run-scoring.. The 6th-deepest centerfield dimensions in the league are found in Globe Life Field.. Among every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brandon Lowe today.. Brandon Lowe's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 91-mph mark last year has fallen off to 86.2-mph.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz logo
Oneil Cruz u1.5 Total Bases (-150)
Projection 0.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst field in the league for run-scoring.. In today's matchup, Oneil Cruz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (89th percentile).. Among every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oneil Cruz in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has been lucky this year, notching a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .346 — a .038 difference.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Wed, Apr 22 • 8:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

I had this start circled for five days. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is closer to 8.00. He’s been wildly lucky while allowing the eighth-worst Blast Contact% among starters, and he’s also posted one of the worst HR/9 rates over the last two seasons. In short, the San Diego Padres are a great place to look for dingers on Wednesday at Coors Field, especially with poor hitting weather elsewhere. Fernando Tatis Jr. is +400 to go deep with a fair price around +330, per Covers projections powered by THE BAT. He’s the best +EV home run on the board this morning. It’s surprising he hasn’t gone deep yet, but that’s why the price is discounted. He leads the team with a 27.5% Blast Contact% rate, and it feels like a matter of time before that breaks through.

Total Bases
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best park in the league for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The weather forecast forecasts the best hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Wed, Apr 22 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas logo
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 34 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as baseball's 2nd-best home run hitter.. Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Wed, Apr 22 • 9:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Oracle Park ranks as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Teoscar Hernandez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of every team today.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 1.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 4th-best field in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an edge in today's game.
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