MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 22, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

HOU @

CHC Fri, May 22 • 2:20 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Moneyline

CHC (-140)

Best Odds

-142

Pick made: an hour ago

-144

-150

-142

-145

Opposing hitters sport a well-below-average .300 wOBA to pave the way to Cubs vet Jamerson Taillon spinning a tidy 3.28 ERA across an equally tidy 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the franchise in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish following a day off, and Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump. Arrighetti sports a career 5.15 ERA on the highway and faces a lineup sporting the third-lowest BABIP over the past three weeks, after all.

Total Hits

Jake Meyers u0.5 Total Hits (+170)

Projection 0.8

Best Odds

u0.5 +170

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +143

u0.5 +170

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +145

The #5 field in baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game predicts the lowest temperature of the day at 57°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 11.3-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Jameson Taillon will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Meyers in today's matchup.. Jake Meyers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

+170 at bet365

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STL @

CIN Fri, May 22 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Spencer Steer u0.5 Total Hits (+185)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +185

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +161

u0.5 +185

u0.5 +162

u0.5 +170

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Steer will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.

+185 at bet365

Total Hits

Tyler Stephenson u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.8

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +145

Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today's game.. Kyle Leahy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today's game.. Ranking in the 8th percentile, Tyler Stephenson has notched a .210 batting average since the start of last season.

+150 at DraftKings

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CLE @

PHI Fri, May 22 • 6:40 PM ET

5 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Brandon Marsh u0.5 Total Hits (+155)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

u0.5 +155

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +133

u0.5 +135

The #7 ballpark in MLB for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this game expects the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. As it relates to plate discipline, Brandon Marsh's ability is quite poor, posting a 4.89 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 9th percentile.

+155 at bet365

Total Hits

Angel Martinez u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +173

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +168

u0.5 +175

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this game expects the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Angel Martinez today.. Angel Martinez's launch angle this year (14.3°) is significantly lower than his 19.1° mark last year.

+175 at bet365

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TB @

NYY Fri, May 22 • 7:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Trent Grisham u0.5 Total Hits (+130)

Projection 0.74

Best Odds

u0.5 +139

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +139

u0.5 +130

Trent Grisham is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #25 field in baseball for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense.. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.3-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers.

+139 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 1.88

Best Odds

o1.5 +125

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +104

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +107

o1.5 +110

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Yankee Stadium as the 6th-best venue in the game for right-handed home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Junior Caminero's 13.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) is in the 82nd percentile this year.

+125 at bet365

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PIT @

TOR Fri, May 22 • 7:07 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Spread

TOR -1.5 (+134)

Best Odds

-1.5 +134

Pick made: 10 hours ago

-1.5 +130

-1.5 +134

-1.5 +125

-1.5 +130

While Bubba Chandler is struggling with control (36:30 K/BB ratio), Kevin Gausman remains in elite form, pacing the Blue Jays with a pitching run value that ranks in the 93rd percentile at Baseball Savant. Take Toronto to cover and land the first punch in this series.

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+149)

Projection 1.84

Best Odds

o1.5 +149

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +149

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +145

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 13th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's matchup.

+149 at DraftKings

View 11 Picks

MIN @

BOS Fri, May 22 • 7:10 PM ET

6 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jarren Duran u0.5 Total Hits (+202)

Projection 0.91

Best Odds

u0.5 +202

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +202

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +190

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hitting from the same side that Connor Prielipp throws from, Jarren Duran faces a tough challenge in today's matchup.. With a .275 wOBA in the last 14 days, Jarren Duran has been struggling at the plate.. Jarren Duran has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 5.4° mark is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (7th percentile).

+202 at bet365

Total Hits

Willson Contreras u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.83

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 54 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +169

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +162

u0.5 +175

+175 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 6 Picks

NYM @

MIA Fri, May 22 • 7:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

MJ Melendez u0.5 Total Hits (-129)

Projection 0.45

Best Odds

u0.5 -129

Pick made: 10 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -130

u0.5 -135

u0.5 -145

u0.5 -129

MJ Melendez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense.. In today's game, MJ Melendez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.3% rate (94th percentile).. Extreme flyball batters like MJ Melendez tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.

-129 at Caesars

Total Bases

Owen Caissie o1.5 Total Bases (+270)

Projection 1.17

Best Odds

o1.5 +275

Pick made: 2 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +184

o1.5 +270

o1.5 +145

o1.5 +275

o1.5 +175

When estimating his BABIP talent, Owen Caissie is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Owen Caissie will have the handedness advantage over Tobias Myers today.. Owen Caissie hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Owen Caissie will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

+275 at BetMGM

View 10 Picks

DET @

BAL Fri, May 22 • 7:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+185)

Projection 1.54

Best Odds

o1.5 +185

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +151

o1.5 +185

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +150

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Taylor Ward is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Taylor Ward has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Taylor Ward will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

+185 at bet365

Total Bases

Leody Taveras o1.5 Total Bases (+215)

Projection 1.39

Best Odds

o1.5 +215

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +215

o1.5 +202

o1.5 +210

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best field in the league for run-scoring.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Leody Taveras will get to bat from his good side against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage today.. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 8% to 18.1%.

+215 at DraftKings

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WAS @

ATL Fri, May 22 • 7:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Sandy Leon u0.5 Total Hits (+135)

Projection 0.6

Best Odds

u0.5 +135

Pick made: 14 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -120

u0.5 +135

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sandy Leon in the 0th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Sandy Leon is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. The switch-hitting Sandy Leon will bat from his weak side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. Sandy Leon has been cold of late, posting a .118 wOBA in the last week.

+135 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Hits

Dominic Smith u0.5 Total Hits (+200)

Projection 0.93

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 19 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +200

u0.5 +175

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Dominic Smith's 5.6% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 24th percentile since the start of last season.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

LAD @

MIL Fri, May 22 • 7:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Projection 2.37

Best Odds

o1.5 +115

Pick made: 2 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +100

o1.5 -105

o1.5 -115

o1.5 +101

o1.5 +115

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 4th-best field in MLB for left-handed home runs.. The 7th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

+115 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+185)

Projection 1.58

Best Odds

o1.5 +185

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +152

o1.5 +185

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +160

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 4th-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

+185 at bet365

View 10 Picks

SEA @

KC Fri, May 22 • 7:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Rob Refsnyder o1.5 Total Bases (+225)

Projection 1.29

Best Odds

o1.5 +240

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +210

o1.5 +240

o1.5 +225

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Rob Refsnyder ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

+240 at bet365

Total Bases

Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-104)

Projection 2.15

Best Odds

o1.5 -104

Pick made: 54 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -104

o1.5 -110

o1.5 -125

o1.5 -107

o1.5 -105

As it relates to his batting average talent, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

-104 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

LAA Fri, May 22 • 9:38 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Evan Carter u0.5 Total Hits (+127)

Projection 0.68

Best Odds

u0.5 +127

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +127

u0.5 +110

u0.5 +119

u0.5 +120

Evan Carter is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium ranks as the #21 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Evan Carter will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Evan Carter's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 41.4% to 35.2%.. Evan Carter has been cold recently, struggling to the tune of a .268 wOBA in the past two weeks.

+127 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Justin Foscue o1.5 Total Bases (+215)

Projection 1.42

Best Odds

o1.5 +215

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +179

o1.5 +215

o1.5 +170

o1.5 +180

Justin Foscue has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Angels.. In the last 14 days, Justin Foscue has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .392.. Justin Foscue and his 25.5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 98th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

+215 at bet365

View 10 Picks

COL @

AZ Fri, May 22 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Hunter Goodman u0.5 Total Hits (+185)

Projection 0.76

Best Odds

u0.5 +185

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +185

u0.5 +143

u0.5 +140

Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. In MLB, Chase Field's CF fences are the 3rd-deepest.. Mike Soroka will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Goodman in today's game.. Hunter Goodman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. By putting up a 5.85 K/BB rate this year, Hunter Goodman has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 5th percentile.

+185 at bet365

Total Hits

Mickey Moniak u0.5 Total Hits (+200)

Projection 0.9

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 54 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +200

Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.. Mickey Moniak will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Mickey Moniak has shown weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 14th percentile with a 4.29 K/BB rate.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

ATH @

SD Fri, May 22 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Projection 1.74

Best Odds

o1.5 +119

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +119

o1.5 +115

o1.5 -105

o1.5 +116

o1.5 +115

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 17th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

+119 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+210)

Projection 1.4

Best Odds

o1.5 +210

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +199

o1.5 +195

o1.5 +190

o1.5 +210

When estimating his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the league, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Zack Gelof has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler has a pitch-to-contact profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.. Zack Gelof hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Zack Gelof has been hot recently, bashing 4 HRs in the last two weeks.

+210 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 10 Picks

CHW @

SF Fri, May 22 • 10:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +148

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +140

Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to drop to the 2nd-lowest level of all games on the slate at 58°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Munetaka Murakami in today's matchup.. Munetaka Murakami ranks in the 7th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (35% rate this year).

+160 at bet365

Total Bases

Jarred Kelenic o1.5 Total Bases (+265)

Projection 1.21

Best Odds

o1.5 +265

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +250

o1.5 +265

o1.5 +230

o1.5 +260

o1.5 +240

In MLB, Oracle Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Considering Trevor McDonald's large platoon split, Jarred Kelenic will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

+265 at bet365

View 10 Picks

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