MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 23, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

STL @

CIN Sat, May 23 • 1:10 PM ET

3 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+105)

Projection 2.01

Best Odds

o1.5 +105

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -119

o1.5 +105

When assessing his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #1 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the most humid conditions on the slate today at 92%.

+105 at BetMGM

Total RBIs

Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)

Projection 0.76

Best Odds

o0.5 +125

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +112

o0.5 +125

+125 at BetMGM

View 3 Picks

TB @

NYY Sat, May 23 • 1:35 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Ryan Vilade u0.5 Total Hits (+129)

Projection 0.64

Best Odds

u0.5 +129

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +129

u0.5 +125

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 4th-worst ballpark in the league for righty BABIP.. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

+129 at Caesars

Total Bases

Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+155)

Projection 1.75

Best Odds

o1.5 +155

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +155

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +130

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Junior Caminero as the league's 19th-best home run batter.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Junior Caminero will have an edge in today's game.

+155 at bet365

View 10 Picks

HOU @

CHC Sat, May 23 • 2:20 PM ET

2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Total

u7.5 (-115)

Best Odds

u7.5 -115

Pick made: 2 hours ago

u7.5 -117

u7.5 -115

Houston's Under record is 8-0-1 in its last nine games.

Moneyline

CHC (-142)

Best Odds

-146

Pick made: 2 hours ago

-156

-150

-146

-155

-150

Colin Rea has allowed just four earned runs in his last three home starts, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA.

View 12 Picks

PIT @

TOR Sat, May 23 • 3:07 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz u1.5 Total Bases (-165)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u1.5 -165

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -177

u1.5 -165

u1.5 -170

u1.5 -165

In MLB, the 8th-tallest average fence height are at Rogers Centre.. Patrick Corbin will have the handedness advantage over Oneil Cruz in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.. In the last week's worth of games, Oneil Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.4% down to 0%.. Over the past 7 days, Oneil Cruz's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.3%.

-165 at bet365

Total Bases

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+185)

Projection 1.48

Best Odds

o1.5 +185

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +154

o1.5 +185

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +150

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best park in MLB for left-handed home runs.. The 9th-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Rogers Centre.. The Rogers Centre roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Brandon Lowe has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the last 7 days.

+185 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CHW @

SF Sat, May 23 • 4:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 20 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +141

Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Over the past 7 days, Munetaka Murakami's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 21.4% down to 12.5%.. Munetaka Murakami's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 94.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 92.3-mph in the past two weeks.. Munetaka Murakami's launch angle in recent games (9.5° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is significantly lower than his 14.5° seasonal figure.

+175 at bet365

Total Bases

Matt Chapman o1.5 Total Bases (+185)

Projection 1.43

Best Odds

o1.5 +185

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +169

o1.5 +185

o1.5 +180

o1.5 +155

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. This game is forecasted to have the 4th-most humidity of all games today (82%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Matt Chapman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

+185 at bet365

View 10 Picks

DET @

BAL Sat, May 23 • 4:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jeremiah Jackson u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +145

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +144

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-coldest weather of all games today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this year (6.1°) is a significant dropoff from his 11.7° mark last season.. Posting a 9.56 K/BB rate this year, Jeremiah Jackson has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 1st percentile.

+190 at bet365

Total Hits

Weston Wilson u0.5 Total Hits (+103)

Projection 0.5

Best Odds

u0.5 +120

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +103

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +102

Weston Wilson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Weston Wilson is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-coldest weather of all games today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Weston Wilson's quickness has declined this year. His 28.15 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.71 ft/sec now.

+120 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CLE @

PHI Sat, May 23 • 4:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Brandon Marsh u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 28 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +145

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +150

The #7 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level on the schedule today at 54°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Brandon Marsh's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 86-mph over the last week.. Brandon Marsh's launch angle in recent games (5.3° over the last two weeks) is considerably lower than his 10.8° seasonal mark.

+190 at bet365

Total Hits

Kyle Schwarber u0.5 Total Hits (+141)

Projection 0.75

Best Odds

u0.5 +141

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +136

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +141

The #7 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level on the schedule today at 54°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Kyle Schwarber's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 21.3% on the season to 0% in the last week.. Despite posting a .410 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side given the .041 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .369.

+141 at Caesars

View 10 Picks

SEA @

KC Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-111)

Projection 2.25

Best Odds

o1.5 -105

Pick made: 6 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -111

o1.5 -120

o1.5 -130

o1.5 -113

o1.5 -105

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #6 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games today.

-105 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+132)

Projection 1.7

Best Odds

o1.5 +132

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +121

o1.5 +132

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +121

o1.5 +125

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The #6 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games today.. Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have an advantage in today's game.

+132 at bet365

View 10 Picks

NYM @

MIA Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET

8 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Juan Soto u0.5 Total Hits (+180)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 18 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +179

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +172

u0.5 +180

LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Juan Soto today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 42.2% to 34.6%.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 34.6% on the season to 25% in the last 14 days.

+180 at bet365

Total Bases

Connor Norby o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.4

Best Odds

o1.5 +204

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +204

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +195

o1.5 +200

Connor Norby's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. LoanDepot Park has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today's game.

+204 at DraftKings

View 8 Picks

WAS @

ATL Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Matt Olson u0.5 Total Hits (+195)

Projection 0.94

Best Odds

u0.5 +195

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +194

u0.5 +195

u0.5 +184

u0.5 +190

Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.. Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 16.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games.. Matt Olson's launch angle recently (2.2° over the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 17.5° seasonal figure.. Matt Olson has been lucky this year, notching a .386 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .036 deviation.

+195 at bet365

Total Hits

Dominic Smith u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 18 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +179

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +170

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. 12% of the time that Dominic Smith has started against a northpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.. When it comes to his batting average, Dominic Smith has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .304 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252.

+190 at bet365

View 10 Picks

MIN @

BOS Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET

7 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Willson Contreras u0.5 Total Hits (+182)

Projection 0.83

Best Odds

u0.5 +182

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +145

u0.5 +182

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Hitting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Willson Contreras will be in a tough position in today's matchup.. In the past week, Willson Contreras's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.5% down to 10%.

+182 at bet365

Total Hits

Wilyer Abreu u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.8

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +154

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +145

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Wilyer Abreu has notched a .230 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+175 at bet365

View 7 Picks

STL @

CIN Sat, May 23 • 7:15 PM ET

4 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Spencer Steer u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +190

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Steer has a tough challenge today.. Spencer Steer has been lucky this year, compiling a .342 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .024 deviation.. Spencer Steer has recorded a .218 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+190 at bet365

Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

o0.5 +125

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +125

o0.5 +105

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Chase Petty throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

+125 at bet365

View 4 Picks

LAD @

MIL Sat, May 23 • 7:15 PM ET

2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Total

u9.0 (-115)

Best Odds

u9.0 -115

Pick made: 3 hours ago

u9.0 -115

u9.0 -122

u9.0 -115

The Dodgers (2.98; 2nd) and Brewers (3.22; 6th) both have elite bullpens, while the pitchers will benefit from a field with the fifth-lowest Park factor (97) in the majors.

LA will also likely be without top slugger Max Muncy, who left Friday's game after taking a heater to the wrist.

Moneyline

MIL (+105)

Best Odds

+108

Pick made: 3 hours ago

+102

+100

+108

+100

Roki Sasaki throws his four-seamer 43% of the time, and that's something the Brewers' bats will take advantage of.

Opponents are hitting .342 vs. Sasaki's fastball, while the Brewers rank ninth in batting average against that pitch type when facing righties (.261).

View 12 Picks

ATH @

SD Sat, May 23 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Brent Rooker o1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Projection 1.85

Best Odds

o1.5 +140

Pick made: 36 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +130

Brent Rooker projects as the 16th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brent Rooker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. In MLB, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Brent Rooker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.1-mph mark.

+140 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+190)

Projection 1.52

Best Odds

o1.5 +190

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +173

o1.5 +190

o1.5 +150

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. In MLB, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Zack Gelof hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. In the past 7 days, Zack Gelof's 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.1%.. Zack Gelof's footspeed has gotten better this season. His 28.04 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.72 ft/sec now.

+190 at bet365

View 10 Picks

$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

LAA Sat, May 23 • 10:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Brandon Nimmo u0.5 Total Hits (+182)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 26 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +175

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 6th-worst ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Brandon Nimmo has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

+190 at bet365

Total Hits

Alejandro Osuna u0.5 Total Hits (+126)

Projection 0.67

Best Odds

u0.5 +126

Pick made: 36 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +126

u0.5 +105

u0.5 +109

u0.5 +115

Alejandro Osuna is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Alejandro Osuna has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 40% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 6th-worst ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Today, Alejandro Osuna is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.2% rate (81st percentile).. Alejandro Osuna will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

+126 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

COL @

AZ Sat, May 23 • 10:10 PM ET

1 Computer Pick

Strikeouts Thrown

Michael Lorenzen u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-102)

Projection 3.26

Best Odds

u3.5 -102

Pick made: 20 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u3.5 -116

u3.5 -120

u3.5 -102

u3.5 -112

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Michael Lorenzen in the 21st percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.. The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the worst stadium in the majors for strikeouts.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 83°.

-102 at FanDuel

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