MLB Picks

This matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair, with strong bullpen performance on both sides and neither offense generating much recent power. Milwaukee’s relief corps owns a 2.89 xERA over the last week, while the Cardinals and Brewers have posted modest recent ISO marks of .162 and .151, respectively.

Both offenses enter in strong recent form, and the late-inning pitching has been vulnerable. Detroit owns a .212 ISO and 41% hard-hit rate over the last week, while the Tigers and Athletics bullpens have posted 5.99 and 7.32 FIPs, respectively, across their latest stretches of work heading into this matchup.

This is a big number at a great price for a starter who projects to throw only 86 pitches and is still transitioning from a bullpen arm into a starter. Two straight starts against the Royals might also be inflating his numbers more than they should. The Yankees do strike out at a high rate, but expecting a strikeout per inning and 18 outs from a pitcher on this type of leash is something I'm betting against today. THE BAT projections at Covers have him closer to 5.12 strikeouts with a fair price around -145. New York also handles left-handed pitching well, ranking fourth in baseball this season in wRC+ against southpaws. Tampa Bay's bullpen isn't a strength, but nearly every arm is available tonight behind a pitcher with a limited track record and a relatively short leash on this elevated strikeout prop.

Astros right hander Tatsuya Imai has piled up strikeouts recently, posting a strikeout rate near 40% over his last three starts, but the underlying numbers remain concerning. During that stretch, he owns a 5.40 ERA while allowing plenty of hard contact. Through 12 starts, Imai has surrendered 10 first inning runs, good for an 8.18 first inning ERA. Now he faces a Washington lineup that thrives early, ranking among baseball's best first inning offenses with a 127 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .804 OPS over its last 21 games. I am backing an early run in this matchup.

I want a right-handed bat against lefty Andrew Abbott in Cincinnati today, with Great American Ball Park once again projecting as one of the best home run parks on the slate. Abbott's home numbers help this play even more, as his ERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher at GABP. He has also allowed 12 home runs to right-handed hitters compared to just three to lefties and is currently battling his command. Abbott walked five batters in his last start, and two outings ago he surrendered three home runs. Alec Bohm is the right-handed bat I want in this lefty-heavy Phillies lineup. He's taken the Reds' starter deep in just seven career at-bats and is sporting a .924 OPS over his last eight games after a one-game benching that followed an 0-for-12 stretch. During that run, he has two homers and four doubles. Bohm also owns a better BlastContact% than both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber over the last week.

It's a big name at a big price with a nine-inning home run edge. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City offense get to face a tired Mets bullpen that used six arms yesterday and has leaned on its three best relievers in back-to-back games. New York is going with a bullpen game to add injury to insult, and this staff has allowed 29 runs over its last three games. Witt might only have three homers over the last 30 days, but he also missed a week, has nine games under his belt since returning, and ranks 10th in all of baseball in BlastContact% (23.2%) over that span. The home runs and hard contact are coming, and there could be a handful before the All-Star break. The Royals' shortstop might see three or four different pitchers today, but that also means he'll get plenty of plate appearances against the weaker arms in New York's bullpen over nine innings.

The Boston Red Sox have a great power profile against left-handed pitching, ranking eighth in OPS, fourth in ISO, and first in fly ball rate over the last five weeks.

The Chicago White Sox have excelled against lefties all season, leading the majors in ISO. 

Payton Tolle has posted an xERA of 4.0 or higher in four of his last five and will be tested.

Bet to -115.

This is a complete fade of Zac Gallen. If you want to get frisky and back the Padres to score in the first inning instead of the YRFI, I would not blame you. San Diego has been swinging the bat extremely well over the last week and brings six elite rated hitters, plus two more with strong ratings, according to Batters-Box's current season ratings. Gallen has been a disaster in the opening frame, allowing 15 earned runs through 18 starts for a 7.50 first inning ERA. Opposing hitters own a .342 batting average and .964 OPS in the first, making -121 a very fair price.

A combined seven elite rated hitters and three strongly rated bats, according to Batters-Box, is more than enough for me to back early runs. Michael Lorenzen owns the worst pitcher rating in the current dataset and has been crushed in the first inning, allowing 13 earned runs through 18 starts with opponents posting an .869 OPS. Justin Wrobleski has not been much better early, surrendering 7 first inning earned runs through 14 starts. Both offenses have been scorching over their last 21 games, each producing at least a 129 wRC+, .799 OPS and .173 ISO. Expect traffic on the bases early.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.