MLB Picks

This matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair, with strong bullpen performance on both sides and neither offense generating much recent power. Milwaukee’s relief corps owns a 2.89 xERA over the last week, while the Cardinals and Brewers have posted modest recent ISO marks of .162 and .151, respectively.

Both offenses enter in strong recent form, and the late-inning pitching has been vulnerable. Detroit owns a .212 ISO and 41% hard-hit rate over the last week, while the Tigers and Athletics bullpens have posted 5.99 and 7.32 FIPs, respectively, across their latest stretches of work heading into this matchup.

Griffin Conine has been crushing right handed pitching lately, and the matchup against Bryan Woo sets up nicely. The Marlins outfielder owns an elite Batters-Box rating with nearly 84% arsenal coverage against Woo, who has struggled to contain left handed hitters. Over his last 60 left handed hitters faced, Woo has allowed elevated contact, a 43%+ hard hit rate, and elite expected metrics. Meanwhile, Conine is generating a 51.6% hard hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate against righties. At plus money, an elite rated bat going over 1.5 HRR is a valuable look.

I’m taking the Under because Seymour’s best trait attacks New York’s biggest offensive issue. The Yankees still carry power, but their high whiff rate is a problem here. Tampa Bay can pressure Warren with contact, but this is not a pure slugging profile. Warren has allowed only a 7.2% barrel rate and a .397 xSLG, so the Rays may need sequencing instead of one-swing damage. I make this closer to 7.7 runs, play to -152.

Astros right hander Tatsuya Imai has piled up strikeouts recently, posting a strikeout rate near 40% over his last three starts, but the underlying numbers remain concerning. During that stretch, he owns a 5.40 ERA while allowing plenty of hard contact. Through 12 starts, Imai has surrendered 10 first inning runs, good for an 8.18 first inning ERA. Now he faces a Washington lineup that thrives early, ranking among baseball's best first inning offenses with a 127 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .804 OPS over its last 21 games. I am backing an early run in this matchup.

I want a right-handed bat against lefty Andrew Abbott in Cincinnati today, with Great American Ball Park once again projecting as one of the best home run parks on the slate. Abbott's home numbers help this play even more, as his ERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher at GABP. He has also allowed 12 home runs to right-handed hitters compared to just three to lefties and is currently battling his command. Abbott walked five batters in his last start, and two outings ago he surrendered three home runs. Alec Bohm is the right-handed bat I want in this lefty-heavy Phillies lineup. He's taken the Reds' starter deep in just seven career at-bats and is sporting a .924 OPS over his last eight games after a one-game benching that followed an 0-for-12 stretch. During that run, he has two homers and four doubles. Bohm also owns a better BlastContact% than both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber over the last week.

It's a big name at a big price with a nine-inning home run edge. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City offense get to face a tired Mets bullpen that used six arms yesterday and has leaned on its three best relievers in back-to-back games. New York is going with a bullpen game to add injury to insult, and this staff has allowed 29 runs over its last three games. Witt might only have three homers over the last 30 days, but he also missed a week, has nine games under his belt since returning, and ranks 10th in all of baseball in BlastContact% (23.2%) over that span. The home runs and hard contact are coming, and there could be a handful before the All-Star break. The Royals' shortstop might see three or four different pitchers today, but that also means he'll get plenty of plate appearances against the weaker arms in New York's bullpen over nine innings.

Miguel Vargas finds himself in a strong matchup against Red Sox left hander Payton Tolle. Vargas enters today with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering nearly 91% of Tolle’s pitch mix. Left handed pitching has been his strength this season, posting a .306 BA, .424 OBP, .571 SLG, 58.5% hard hit rate, and 17% barrel rate over his last 60 at bats against southpaws. Meanwhile, Tolle has struggled to keep right handed hitters from elevating the baseball, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate with a .700 xSLG. Vargas is a strong candidate to clear his bases prop.

This is a complete fade of Zac Gallen. If you want to get frisky and back the Padres to score in the first inning instead of the YRFI, I would not blame you. San Diego has been swinging the bat extremely well over the last week and brings six elite rated hitters, plus two more with strong ratings, according to Batters-Box's current season ratings. Gallen has been a disaster in the opening frame, allowing 15 earned runs through 18 starts for a 7.50 first inning ERA. Opposing hitters own a .342 batting average and .964 OPS in the first, making -121 a very fair price.

This is a giant number for a short-leashed pitcher facing an offense that is deader than dead. Trevor McDonald projects for around 90 pitches today, which might be generous for a guy who has thrown more than 90 pitches just once over his last eight starts. He is coming off a one-hit outing and projects as a better-than-a-hit-per-inning starter. He gets the coldest offense in baseball, which has managed just three runs and 13 hits over its last four games (36 innings) and has done nothing offensively since hitting the West Coast last week. Toronto hasn't recorded more than three hits in three straight games. Because of that, the Giants bullpen is fresh and ready to go, making a 15-out outing from McDonald very realistic. It's time to fade the Jays until this offense shows signs of life.

Hunter Goodman is in another excellent spot to attack his 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI prop against Dodgers left hander Justin Wrobleski. The Rockies catcher has been crushing southpaws, posting a .333 batting average, .383 OBP, and .630 SLG over his last 60 plate appearances against lefties. Meanwhile, Wrobleski has struggled against right handed bats, allowing a 55.2% hard hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate over his last 60 batters faced. Goodman has also cleared this prop 53.3% of the time when carrying an elite Batters-Box rating this season. At -110, this is a strong value.

D-backs starter Jose Cabrera struggled to find the strike zone in his last outing, surrendering three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against Milwaukee. Arizona will also have a tough time against Michael King, who has held D-backs hitters to a .546 OPS across 62 at-bats. The Padres are playable to -150.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.