MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 22, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

HOU @

CHC Fri, May 22 • 2:20 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Moneyline

CHC (-140)

Best Odds

-142

Pick made: 3 hours ago

-144

-150

-142

-145

Opposing hitters sport a well-below-average .300 wOBA to pave the way to Cubs vet Jamerson Taillon spinning a tidy 3.28 ERA across an equally tidy 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the franchise in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish following a day off, and Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump. Arrighetti sports a career 5.15 ERA on the highway and faces a lineup sporting the third-lowest BABIP over the past three weeks, after all.

Total Hits

Jake Meyers u0.5 Total Hits (+165)

Projection 0.8

Best Odds

u0.5 +165

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +143

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +145

The #5 field in baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game predicts the lowest temperature of the day at 57°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 11.3-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Jameson Taillon will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Meyers in today's matchup.. Jake Meyers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

+165 at bet365

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STL @

CIN Fri, May 22 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Spencer Steer u0.5 Total Hits (+185)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +185

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +161

u0.5 +185

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +162

u0.5 +170

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Steer will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.

+185 at bet365

Total Bases

Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Projection 2.12

Best Odds

o1.5 +100

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -122

o1.5 -130

o1.5 +100

o1.5 -121

o1.5 -120

When assessing his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #3 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the majors.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

+100 at BetMGM

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CLE @

PHI Fri, May 22 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Brandon Marsh u0.5 Total Hits (+155)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

u0.5 +155

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +133

u0.5 +135

The #7 ballpark in MLB for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this game expects the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. As it relates to plate discipline, Brandon Marsh's ability is quite poor, posting a 4.89 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 9th percentile.

+155 at bet365

Total Hits

Angel Martinez u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +173

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +165

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this game expects the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Angel Martinez today.. Angel Martinez's launch angle this year (14.3°) is significantly lower than his 19.1° mark last year.

+175 at bet365

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TB @

NYY Fri, May 22 • 7:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Spencer Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+115)

Projection 0.62

Best Odds

u0.5 +115

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +115

u0.5 +105

Spencer Jones is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #25 field in baseball for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-deepest CF dimensions in the league.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense.. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

+115 at bet365

Total Bases

Jazz Chisholm Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+191)

Projection 1.52

Best Odds

o1.5 +191

Pick made: 35 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +191

o1.5 +165

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +170

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has strong power (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..

+191 at DraftKings

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PIT @

TOR Fri, May 22 • 7:07 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Spread

TOR -1.5 (+134)

Best Odds

-1.5 +134

Pick made: 12 hours ago

-1.5 +130

-1.5 +134

-1.5 +125

-1.5 +130

While Bubba Chandler is struggling with control (36:30 K/BB ratio), Kevin Gausman remains in elite form, pacing the Blue Jays with a pitching run value that ranks in the 93rd percentile at Baseball Savant. Take Toronto to cover and land the first punch in this series.

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+149)

Projection 1.84

Best Odds

o1.5 +150

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +149

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +131

o1.5 +150

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 13th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's matchup.

+150 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 11 Picks

MIN @

BOS Fri, May 22 • 7:10 PM ET

8 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Austin Martin u0.5 Total Hits (+180)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +163

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +154

u0.5 +155

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the lowest level on the schedule today at 58°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team today.. Austin Martin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. This year, Austin Martin's 2% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 9th percentile among his peers.

+180 at bet365

Total Hits

Byron Buxton u0.5 Total Hits (+180)

Projection 0.85

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 43 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +157

u0.5 +155

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Typically, bats like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tolle.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team today.. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Byron Buxton today.

+180 at bet365

View 8 Picks

NYM @

MIA Fri, May 22 • 7:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

MJ Melendez u1.5 Total Bases (-319)

Projection 0.44

Best Odds

u1.5 -319

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -319

MJ Melendez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. LoanDepot Park projects as the #27 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense.. In today's game, MJ Melendez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.3% rate (94th percentile).

-319 at bet365

Total Bases

Owen Caissie o1.5 Total Bases (+270)

Projection 1.17

Best Odds

o1.5 +270

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +221

o1.5 +270

o1.5 +145

o1.5 +230

o1.5 +210

When estimating his BABIP talent, Owen Caissie is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Owen Caissie will have the handedness advantage over Tobias Myers today.. Owen Caissie hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Owen Caissie will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

+270 at bet365

View 10 Picks

DET @

BAL Fri, May 22 • 7:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Tyler O'Neill o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.48

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: 17 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +199

o1.5 +170

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +200

Tyler O'Neill projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Tyler O'Neill will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

+200 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+190)

Projection 1.54

Best Odds

o1.5 +190

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +151

o1.5 +190

o1.5 +145

o1.5 +155

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Taylor Ward is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Taylor Ward has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Taylor Ward will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

+190 at bet365

View 10 Picks

WAS @

ATL Fri, May 22 • 7:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Sandy Leon u0.5 Total Hits (+125)

Projection 0.6

Best Odds

u0.5 +125

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -120

u0.5 +125

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sandy Leon in the 0th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Sandy Leon is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. The switch-hitting Sandy Leon will bat from his weak side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. Sandy Leon has been cold of late, posting a .118 wOBA in the last week.

+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Hits

Ozzie Albies u0.5 Total Hits (+205)

Projection 0.92

Best Odds

u0.5 +205

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +205

u0.5 +185

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. This year, Ozzie Albies's 4.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 19th percentile among his peers.. Ozzie Albies's 86.4-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in the league this year: 15th percentile.

+205 at bet365

View 10 Picks

LAD @

MIL Fri, May 22 • 7:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Projection 2.37

Best Odds

o1.5 +110

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +110

o1.5 -105

o1.5 -115

o1.5 -105

o1.5 +101

o1.5 +110

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 4th-best field in MLB for left-handed home runs.. The 7th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

+110 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+190)

Projection 1.61

Best Odds

o1.5 +190

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +164

o1.5 +190

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +137

o1.5 +165

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Andy Pages is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 4th-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 7th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

+190 at bet365

View 10 Picks

SEA @

KC Fri, May 22 • 7:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Projection 2.14

Best Odds

o1.5 -105

Pick made: 19 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -108

o1.5 -110

o1.5 -125

o1.5 -105

o1.5 -109

o1.5 -105

As it relates to his batting average talent, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

-105 at BetMGM

Total Bases

Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Projection 1.65

Best Odds

o1.5 +135

Pick made: 13 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +132

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +132

o1.5 +135

As it relates to his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

+135 at bet365

View 10 Picks

$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

LAA Fri, May 22 • 9:38 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Justin Foscue o1.5 Total Bases (+215)

Projection 1.42

Best Odds

o1.5 +215

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +179

o1.5 +215

o1.5 +170

o1.5 +180

o1.5 +170

Justin Foscue has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Angels.. In the last 14 days, Justin Foscue has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .392.. Justin Foscue and his 25.5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 98th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

+215 at bet365

Total Bases

Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+160)

Projection 1.7

Best Odds

o1.5 +160

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +137

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +133

o1.5 +150

When assessing his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Angels.. Jake Burger has been hot lately, notching 2 homers over the past week.. Power-wise, Jake Burger has performed in the 86th percentile, having averaged 29.7 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

+160 at bet365

View 10 Picks

COL @

AZ Fri, May 22 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Mickey Moniak u0.5 Total Hits (+200)

Projection 0.9

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +200

u0.5 +170

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +185

Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.. Mickey Moniak will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Mickey Moniak has shown weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 14th percentile with a 4.29 K/BB rate.

+200 at bet365

Total Hits

Troy Johnston u0.5 Total Hits (+182)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +182

Pick made: 13 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +148

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +145

Troy Johnston is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In today's game, Troy Johnston is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (95th percentile).. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Troy Johnston in today's matchup.. Troy Johnston's 1.9% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 8th percentile this year.

+182 at bet365

View 10 Picks

ATH @

SD Fri, May 22 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+170)

Projection 0.85

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +132

u0.5 +170

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +129

u0.5 +125

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Carlos Cortes today.

+175 at BetMGM

Total Bases

Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+128)

Projection 1.92

Best Odds

o1.5 +128

Pick made: 35 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +128

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +117

o1.5 +120

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Shea Langeliers as MLB's 17th-best home run batter.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Shea Langeliers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.

+128 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

CHW @

SF Fri, May 22 • 10:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +148

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +115

u0.5 +140

Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to drop to the 2nd-lowest level of all games on the slate at 58°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Munetaka Murakami in today's matchup.. Munetaka Murakami ranks in the 7th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (35% rate this year).

+160 at bet365

Total Bases

Jarred Kelenic o1.5 Total Bases (+265)

Projection 1.21

Best Odds

o1.5 +265

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +250

o1.5 +265

o1.5 +230

o1.5 +260

o1.5 +240

In MLB, Oracle Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Considering Trevor McDonald's large platoon split, Jarred Kelenic will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

+265 at bet365

View 10 Picks

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