MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, May 16 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Yohendrick Pinango logo
Yohendrick Pinango u0.5 Total Hits (+164)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Yohendrick Pinango has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 35% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park's centerfield fences are the 2nd-deepest.. Yohendrick Pinango will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Yohendrick Pinango's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 12.5% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.. Yohendrick Pinango has been cold lately, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Jesus Sanchez logo
Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.44
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Among all stadiums, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Jesus Sanchez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Casey Mize today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, May 16 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Yohel Pozo logo
Yohel Pozo u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yohel Pozo in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Yohel Pozo is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Dingers are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for mound aces.. Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.
Total Hits
Masyn Winn logo
Masyn Winn u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.91
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for mound aces.. Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.3-mph.. Compared to his seasonal figure of 14.9°, Masyn Winn has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.2°) over the past two weeks.. From last season to this one, Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.8% to 10.9%.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sat, May 16 • 3:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak logo
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #1 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 27 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The #1 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, May 16 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.1
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Taylor Ward logo
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Taylor Ward has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, May 16 • 4:05 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber logo Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+266)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Kyle Schwarber is impossible to ignore right now after crushing three home runs across his last two games. The Phillies slugger has gone deep in seven of his previous eight appearances and already leads MLB with 20 homers. Schwarber continues to mash on the road as well, making him a dangerous threat again against the Pirates pitching staff.

Total
Philadelphia Phillies logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo u8.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

The Under has cashed in six of the last nine head-to-head matchups.

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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, May 16 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kyle Stowers logo
Kyle Stowers u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #4 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Kyle Stowers will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. From last season to this one, Kyle Stowers's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 19.2% to 10.5%.
Total Hits
Richie Palacios logo
Richie Palacios u0.5 Total Hits (+133)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Richie Palacios in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Richie Palacios is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. When starting against a righty hurler this year, Richie Palacios has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 36% of the time.. The #4 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sat, May 16 • 6:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Matt McLain logo Matt McLain o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Matt McLain enters Saturday swinging a hot bat after homering in back-to-back games for the Reds. The second baseman draws a favorable matchup against Gavin Williams, who has surrendered eight home runs through nine starts and struggled badly lately. At nearly 10/1 odds, McLain offers excellent value to stay hot against Cleveland tonight.

Total Bases
JJ Bleday logo
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
JJ Bleday is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Progressive Field as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.. JJ Bleday pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Royce Lewis logo
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.46
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Target Field grades out as the #7 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Royce Lewis will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Despite posting a .255 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had some very poor luck given the .053 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.
Total Bases
Ryan Jeffers logo
Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Target Field grades out as the #7 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Ryan Jeffers will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 16th-best batter in the league.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. The #8 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 2
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as baseball's 2nd-best home run batter.. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #8 field in the game for boosting offensive stats to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Munetaka Murakami will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon today.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Houston Astros logo HOU Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brice Matthews logo
Brice Matthews o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.3
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brice Matthews has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Brice Matthews pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Brice Matthews will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 14 days, Brice Matthews's 31% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.3%.
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.67
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The #3 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. Over the past 14 days, Jake Burger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.2-mph recently.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.9°, Jake Burger has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 47.3° figure in the past week's worth of games.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Ceddanne Rafaela has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Jarren Duran logo
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+156)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ New York Mets logo NYM Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge logo Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+317)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Aaron Judge remains one of baseball’s premier home run threats every time he steps into the batter’s box. The Yankees superstar already has 16 homers this season and owns a strong history against the Mets, hitting 14 bombs in 32 career games. Judge’s power against shaky pitching makes him an intriguing target Saturday night.

Total Bases
Aaron Judge logo
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.24
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the majors.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Huascar Brazoban throws from, Aaron Judge will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences today.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Miguel Andujar logo
Miguel Andujar u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Miguel Andujar is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst park in baseball for right-handed batting average.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the lowest level of all games today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Logan Gilbert will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miguel Andujar in today's game.
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 17th-best hitter in baseball.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.3-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Sat, May 16 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Sebastian Rivero logo
Sebastian Rivero u0.5 Total Hits (+124)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sebastian Rivero in the 0th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Sebastian Rivero is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Angel Stadium as the 9th-worst field in the league for righty batting average.. This matchup is expected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. In the past week, Sebastian Rivero has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power).
Total Hits
Hyeseong Kim logo
Hyeseong Kim u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
Projection 0.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Hyeseong Kim is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.. 41% of the time that Hyeseong Kim has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for.. The #9 ballpark in the game for suppressing batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. This matchup is expected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hyeseong Kim has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Sat, May 16 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Chapman logo
Matt Chapman o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of the day at 88°.
Total Bases
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of the day at 88°.
View 10 Picks
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 2 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo u8.0 (-120)
Pick made: 10 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Pick made: 10 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.

View 4 Picks

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