MLB Picks

Brandon Marsh’s recent power indicators are much stronger than his surface numbers suggest. He owns a .308 ISO lately with a 71.4% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 14 plate appearances. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also allowed enough home run damage to keep Marsh interesting at this price.

I don't think I've ever seen CJ Abrams this long, and he is featured here at least once a week. Justin Hagenman is the projected starter, but the MLB app still shows TBD as of this afternoon. Either way, it doesn't look like a confident starter today against the Nationals and Abrams. It's likely going to be a righty regardless, which is great news for Abrams, as he has a .900 OPS against right-handers this year with 25 taters. Abrams isn't cooling off in the fall month, either, as he had two homers in his last series and another against the Cardinals. The wind is blowing in, but lefty bats should have a better chance to cut through it with the wind coming in from left field. This price still makes little sense when Abrams is usually around 5x, not 7.2x.

Jo Adell hits for a ton of power against southpaws. He is sporting a .265 ISO and 11.8% barrel rate vs. lefties, and those numbers rise even further when isolating Noah Cameron’s pitch mix.

Adell’s ISO sits at .285 facing fastballs, changeups, and cutters, which are the three pitches Cameron throws at least 20% of the time against RHH.

His bat speed vs. that combination is also tops on the Guardians.

Sean Burke gives Chicago a significant edge on the mound after posting a 0.82 ERA and 3.10 FIP across his last two appearances. Colorado counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a 5.10 FIP over his previous five starts and has continued to surrender plenty of hard contact. The White Sox are the stronger side.

Neither starter enters in dominant form, but Robert Gasser has been much better at keeping opposing hitters from doing serious damage. He's held opponents below a 30% hard-hit rate over his last two starts and has surrendered just 0.91 HR/9 at home this season. That gives Milwaukee the edge over Michael McGreevy and St. Louis.

The Rangers have gone Over in five of their last six games, and this pitching matchup could make it six of seven. Jacob deGrom has been getting lit up on the road all season where he has a 5.35 ERA. Joe Ryan has been awful since the All-Star break, allowing 11 homers with a 7.62 ERA in six appearances. With both bullpens also struggling, seven runs looks too low.
 
 

It must be the end of the season because we're getting Yordan Alvarez at one of his best prices in weeks, in maybe the best home-run matchup on the entire slate. Alvarez should be priced at 3.2x, not 3.7x, today against Jacob Lopez in Sacramento. Lopez looks like he wants to call it a season after giving up 10 runs in his last start and 19 runs over his last three starts, spanning just 12.1 innings. Lopez has also allowed multiple homers in three of his last four games, and Alvarez has taken him deep once in five meetings. This is the best September hitting weather, with winds blowing out, a tired starter who looks ready to wrap it up, and the price is right. Full send here.

Corbin Carroll hasn’t hit for average, but he’s generated barrels at a remarkably high 20.2% clip against fastballs, splitters, and sliders over the last 25 games. That has led to an ISO of nearly .240.

It’s also worth noting Carroll’s had Casey Mize’s number, albeit over a limited sample. He is 4-6 with four hard hit balls and a triple against Mize.

Detmers has been generating plenty of swings and misses lately, posting 9.60 K/9 over his last five appearances and clearing this number in three of his previous four. He also punched out eight Mariners just 10 days ago, and Seattle has averaged 8.71 strikeouts per game at home this season. Another strong strikeout performance is well within reach.

Betts is seeing the ball exceptionally well, batting .458 over the last week with seven of his 11 hits going for extra bases. He's topped 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games and now draws struggling rookie Yunior Marte along with a Giants bullpen carrying a 6.78 FIP over its last 22 innings. Betts should have plenty of opportunities to stay hot.

Detroit sits at the top of baseball over the last 14 days with a 137 wRC+, pairing a .380 on-base percentage with a 3.53 bullpen SIERA. Justin Verlander takes the mound at Comerica Park for the final start of his Hall of Fame career. Facing a Pittsburgh bullpen carrying a 1.34 WHIP and 4.61 ERA, the Tigers hold massive offensive and bullpen advantages in an emotional home spot.

Cleveland enters the weekend in an all-out battle for the AL Central crown and the crucial first-round bye (No. 2 seed). Tanner Bibee gets the start, backed by a bullpen that ranks third in MLB over the last two weeks with a 2.99 SIERA and 31.3% strikeout rate. Kansas City's bullpen has faltered down the stretch (5.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), giving Cleveland a major late-inning edge with season-defining motivation.

Arizona has rattled off five straight wins to stay alive in the wild-card race and gives the ball to Corbin Burnes in a must-win game. San Diego has already punched their postseason ticket, while the Diamondbacks offense has caught fire over the last fortnight (128 wRC+, .500 SLG, 3.49 bullpen SIERA). Getting Burnes backed by high urgency against Walker Buehler provides the premier late-game value on the board.