MLB Picks

When it comes to his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 8th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #3 park in MLB for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Yandy Diaz will have the upper hand in today's game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter the day as Batters-Box's highest rated offense, posting an average hitter matchup rating of 0.514 against Jameson Taillon. Six Pirates hitters grade out as elite, with five expected to bat from the left side, where Taillon has been crushed all season. Over his last 60 left handed batters faced, he owns a 9.75 ERA while allowing a .402 xBA, .807 xSLG, and .447 wOBA. Taillon has also struggled overall recently, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across his last three starts. Expect Pittsburgh to put pressure on him from the opening inning.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns a career 1.017 OPS at Fenway Park and gets another favorable platoon matchup against left-hander Ranger Suárez, making him an enticing quarter-unit home run play at +600 or longer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. The #6 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Austin Riley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.. In the past week, Austin Riley's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 33.3%.. Austin Riley has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 101.8-mph over the past 7 days.

Nationals Park has the 10th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 14 days.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89-mph over the course of the season to 94.1-mph recently.. In the past two weeks, Nolan Arenado's 29.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage over Janson Junk in today's matchup.. Over the past week, Jackson Merrill's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 27.8%.. Jackson Merrill has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph EV.

Freddy Peralta has gone through his share of struggles but he has been much less vulnerable on home soil, with an ERA 2.28 runs lower.

The New York Mets rank 24th in average against righties at home since June 1.

While they have shown improvement of late, their inability to put the ball in the air will make it difficult to capitalize on Emmet Sheehan’s 14th percentile barrel rate.

Bet to -130.

When it comes to his home run skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the highest humidity of all games on the slate at 82%.. Riley Greene will have the handedness advantage over Luinder Avila today.

Look for Chicago to snap its mini RISP slump against a Houston starter making his second appearance in a year. 

American Family Field projects as the #9 stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 86°.. The switch-hitting Willi Castro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Jacob Misiorowski.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 93°.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Brooks Lee will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 89°.. JJ Wetherholt hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In the league, Globe Life Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams today.. Wyatt Langford will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

When estimating his home run talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.. Batters such as Willy Adames with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jose Soriano who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Willy Adames will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Willy Adames has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.5% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games.

Bryce Harper has recorded multiple H+R+R in 57.8% of his games against right-handed starters, and nearly 60% when playing on home soil.

He has a mouthwatering matchup against Will Warren, who has allowed a .309 average against lefties over his last six starts.

Bet to -140.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.