MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #1 field in the majors for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Austin Riley has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, CJ Abrams ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game.

These are two tantalizing starters: Taj Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, whereas Jared Jones hits 100 mph on the radar gun and had a 3.18 botERA last we saw him in 2024. The main concern is the weather (hot, wind blowing out), but that's mitigated at PNC park (second-lowest park factor for home runs).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a prime spot Friday night against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and has consistently produced in these spots away from home, recording 2+ bases in 50% of elite road matchups. Guerrero also owns the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters on today’s slate, matching up extremely well against Rogers’ pitch mix. 

Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.

Progressive Field ranks as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Carlos Narvaez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 4th-best park in the majors for RHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Tropicana Field's LF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.. Logan O'Hoppe has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .211 mark is a fair amount lower than his .253 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The St. Louis Cardinals are underdogs despite being the home team and being better over the last 10. Two of the last three times St. Louis has allowed fewer than five runs came in Andre Pallante starts.

His improved pitch mix has paid dividends. In an even matchup with a more reliable starter, I’d take St. Louis and its plus-money odds.

The #5 park in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Andrew Benintendi will hold the platoon advantage against Troy Melton today.. Andrew Benintendi pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Andrew Benintendi will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Andrew Benintendi's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 21.6% on the season to 25.8% over the past two weeks.

Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Coleman Crow today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Yordan Alvarez has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 18.2% seasonal rate to 30% in the last week.

Rafael Devers is in an elite spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field, but instead of laying juice on traditional props like total bases or HRR, there is more value attacking his ceiling outcome. Rather than paying steep prices for safer markets, sprinkling on Devers to record a double and a home run offers far better upside at plus money. If Devers is going to do damage in this matchup, the expectation is that it comes in loud fashion. Coors Field only adds to that potential, and when a home run just misses, it often turns into a double off the wall anyway.

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer. This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year. His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs across eight at-bats against Severino.

Corbin Carroll projects as the 20th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today's game.. Corbin Carroll pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.

 

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.