MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The #8 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Taylor Ward hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.. Taylor Ward will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. The #2 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

J.T. Realmuto's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.6-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Cam Schlittler owns a 1.34 ERA over nine games vs. teams Bottom-10 in OPS against righties, allowing more than a single run just once. 

Conversely, Tarik Skubal has allowed multiple runs in five straight, including a couple of four-spots. 

Back New York to -145.

The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all parks are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.8-mph in this match-up, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Brett Baty will have the upper hand in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Curtis Mead ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. Batting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Curtis Mead will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nelson Velazquez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Nelson Velazquez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #10 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 92°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Jax to throw 80 pitches in today's game (3rd-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The #5 park in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15.8-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

Among all stadiums, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 93°.. Hitting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Among all stadiums, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. The weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Considering JP Sears's large platoon split, Dansby Swanson will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Kody Clemens is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Kody Clemens will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Kyle Freeland will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Stowers in today's game.

The #1 park in the league for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most favorable for pitching of all games today.. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Zach Neto will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.. Zach Neto will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Justin Wrobleski is the ultimate regression candidate; his 2.71 ERA is a mirage masked by a fraudulent 4.32 xERA and a bottom-tier 17.8% whiff rate.  Conversely, Jeffrey Springs is dynamically unlucky. His bloated 5.52 ERA hides a much sharper 4.41 xERA and a strong .244 xBA, while his 20.6 % strikeout rate provides a true missing-bat floor. Take the Athletics to +115 tonight. 

 

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.