MLB Picks

Mitch Keller owns an abysmal 8.72 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in eight of nine starts when facing teams that slot Top-10 in OPS vs. right-handed pitching.

Gerrit Cole has not looked sharp, and that’s been problematic at home. He has allowed 1.91 homers per nine innings in New York.

Bet to -115.

After backing Jacob Wilson at +1140, I'm like a vampire with a thirst for 10/1 home runs or better, and Dean Kremer at Fenway with the wind blowing out is my next target. I'm playing this down to +750 in the first game of a doubleheader, where Kremer could be asked to eat innings. Kremer currently owns the worst HR/FB rate among qualified MLB starters and the third-worst HR/9. He's already surrendered nine home runs in just 26 innings, with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage. Masataka Yoshida is one of only two Red Sox with an OPS north of 1.000 over the last 30 days and ranks near the top of the club in most offensive categories. He isn't known as a prolific home run hitter, but he's in the middle of a nice power surge with two homers and a .351 average over his last 10 games. The matchup and the setting are there today to take a shot at a massive price.

Two bad teams square off here, but I'll take the team with the pitching advantage in this matchup. Landen Roupp has strikeout power, and he's been dialed in of late, pitching 15 innings across his last two starts, giving up one run on five hits. The Royals, while they've won two straight, are still in the bottom half in terms of runs and power. Roupp delivers another gem. 

I think Merrill Kelly is one of the worst starters in baseball, but this is simply too small a strikeout total at home against a getaway Athletics lineup, especially with the market moving toward the Over. Kelly is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, but his strikeout numbers at home have been much better than on the road. He has 32 strikeouts over 37 home innings compared to just 30 punchouts in 61 road frames. He is also 6-1 to the Over on this prop at home this season and has recorded at least three strikeouts in each of his seven home starts. The Athletics are heading to Minnesota to open a series Friday, so there's a chance this turns into a mail-in game. They also struck out five times in five innings against MLB debutant Kohl Drake yesterday, who doesn't project as a high-strikeout pitcher. THE BAT projects Kelly for 4.03 strikeouts, making the fair price closer to -130/-135.

Citizens Bank Park still ranks as the No. 2 home run park on today's slate, according to Ball Park Pal, despite a slight wind blowing in. That's great news for the Dodgers' bats against Aaron Nola, who has been one of the more home run-prone pitchers in baseball this season. He served up three homers in his last start on the 16th and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven outings. Only Tommy Edman owns a better OPS than Freddie Freeman over the last 30 days in the Dodgers' clubhouse, and Freeman has plenty of history against Nola with 76 career at-bats. Nola has gotten the better of him over the years with a .237 average and just two home runs allowed, but this version of the Phillies' right-hander is the most vulnerable Freeman has ever faced. Almost the entire Dodgers lineup projects as +EV to go deep today, but Freeman at +370 or better is where I'm landing. It also helps that the Phillies have just one available lefty in the bullpen.

My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge, but at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105. Neither starter is built to fully shut this down and I'd be suprised if they did. For example, Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path. Ultimately, I do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren; we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
 

For variety's sake, Varsho is a decent quarter-unit play here. He hasn't homered since June 23, yet he is ramping up lately. Varsho has at least one hit in five of his last six contests, including one of only two Jays RBI yesterday. He's also oddly equipped to handle Jax's arsenal of mostly junk pitches. Jax uses a changeup 23% of the time, and Varsho slugs .421 against offspeeds. 

Anthony Kay has posted an xERA of 5.05 or worse in three of his last four starts. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact and it’ll be tough to get the cat back in the bag against a Texas Rangers offense feasting on lefties.

The Chicago White Sox will see a lot of Cal Quantrill, who ranks in the 21st percentile in barrel rate and has allowed 2.14 homers per nine innings the last month.

Bet to -130.

It's really tough to trust the Tigers' offense right now, so we'll gladly take the hot-hitting Cubbies at home at a short price. Colin Rea has given up three or fewer runs in five straight games, and with the way the Tigers are hitting right now, that trend should continue. Take the home side here. 

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.