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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 9, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.73 |
+118 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
5.10 |
-130 
|
u8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games following a win.
Detroit
- Tigers are 5-0 in Monteros last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Monteros last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1 in Monteros last 10 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
o0.5+167
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.94 |
-184
|
o9.0 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.30 |
+160 
|
u9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -102
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in Fishers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Brady Basso o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.01 |
-124
|
o7.5 -132
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.98 |
+110
|
u8.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -155
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0 in Giants last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
+165
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
4.95 |
-173
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +126
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games following a loss.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Padres are 5-0 in Buehlers last 5 home starts.
- Padres are 4-0 in Buehlers last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+135
|
o7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.29 |
-150
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 games following a win.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.22 |
-110
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.12 |
+102
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -162
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League East.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
+105
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.92 |
-117
|
u8.5 +102
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Stocks last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Miami
- Over is 5-0-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Junks last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+140
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.87 |
-155
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +138
|
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Browns last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts overall.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Phillies last 7 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
+180
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
5.72 |
-210
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +100
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 8-0 in Bennetts last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+210
|
o9.0 -110
|
+4.0 -500
|
|
6.43 |
-240
|
u9.5 -134
|
-4.0 +285
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 8-0 in Suganos last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)
o1.5-120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.72 |
+106
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.87 |
-120
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +172
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
+130
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -164
|
|
4.67 |
-125
|
u8.5 -118
|
-1.5 +145
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-2 in Pirates last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in Martins last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games.
Top Projection
Lake Bachar o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+150)
o2.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
-112
|
o8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.50 |
-104
|
u9.0 -125
|
+1.5 -172
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 on grass.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Kansas City
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+164)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+116
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.51 |
-130
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +160
|
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Hendersons last 7 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+242)
o0.5+242
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+240
|
o8.5 -113
|
+2.0 -121
|
|
5.80 |
-285
|
u9.0 -125
|
-2.0 -107
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0-1 in Reds last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 3 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+241)
o0.5+241
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.91 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Rays are 6-0 in Martinezs last 6 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
- Braves are 5-0 in Perezs last 5 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-1 in Wheelers last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Wheelers last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 8-2 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.52 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.46 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
6.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
MIN
@
DET
Wed, Sep 9 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Kody Clemens ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Luke Keaschall o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Luke Keaschall is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.
TOR
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 9 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Jeff McNeil u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sutter Health Park has the 9th-deepest fences among all major league parks — generally bad for HRs.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 5th-best out of every team today.. Jeff McNeil has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 84.6-mph over the last 14 days.. This year, the hardest ball Jeff McNeil has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 105.8 mph (a reliable stat to assess power), checking in at the 1st percentile.. Ranking in the 22nd percentile, Jeff McNeil has posted a .297 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Zack Gelof ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°.
STL
@
SF
Wed, Sep 9 • 3:45 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Andre Pallante o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+106)
Projection 4.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andre Pallante has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.. The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Drew Cavanaugh, Shay Whitcomb, Jonah Cox, Bryce Eldridge).. Oracle Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions of the day at 37%.. Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Andre Pallante (56.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.. Jordan Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96-mph in the past week's worth of games.. With a .502 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Jordan Walker has performed in the 94th percentile.
WAS
@
SD
Wed, Sep 9 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Keibert Ruiz o1.5 Total Bases (+201)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Walker Buehler in today's game.. Keibert Ruiz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.8-mph average to last year's 86.1-mph EV.
TEX
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 9 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases (+119)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the majors, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for dingers.. Randy Arozarena will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cody Bradford in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. In the majors, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for dingers.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.
CLE
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:35 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-104)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
I like the Guardians at this price, starting with Foster Griffin, who owns a 3.26 ERA across his full season and draws an Orioles lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching. Griffin also has the starting-pitching edge over Shane Baz, who enters 5-15 with a 3.91 ERA. Cleveland has another advantage once the starters leave: since August 4, the Guardians rank fourth in defense and fifth in bullpen ERA. With three different run-prevention edges working in Cleveland's favor, I'll back the Guardians on the moneyline.
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Among all stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield fences are the 3rd-shallowest.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.
NYM
@
MIA
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Griffin Conine o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Conine in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Griffin Conine is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Griffin Conine will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Stock in today's game... and even more favorably, Stock has a large platoon split.. Griffin Conine is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Griffin Conine will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Brett Baty u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brett Baty is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Brett Baty has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #30 stadium in the majors for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
HOU
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #9 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.7-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total RBIs
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+228)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 20th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his batting average talent.. Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #9 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Trea Turner will hold that advantage in today's game.
LAA
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.3-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Johnson throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge in today's game.. Jarren Duran has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.
COL
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 10th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 8th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 10th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 8th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has strong power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..
TB
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (-123)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Atlanta Braves are trading as a 55% favorite on Polymarket in their matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, and I think there's an edge to exploit at that number because I price the Braves closer to a 57% favorite. There are two things I particularly like about this matchup for Atlanta, and both should help neutralize Tampa Bay's speed and running game. First, Reynaldo López isn't afraid to challenge hitters with velocity at the top of the zone, which makes it more difficult for the Rays' slap hitters to put the ball on the ground and beat out plays at first base. Second, Sean Murphy has a quick transfer and an elite pop time, giving him the ability to slow down Tampa Bay's running game once the Rays get runners on base.
Total Bases
Matt Olson o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 87°.
PIT
@
CHW
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Konnor Griffin o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Konnor Griffin as the 2nd-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Konnor Griffin has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. The #6 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This year, the hardest ball Konnor Griffin has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.2 mph (a reliable standard to assess power), checking in at the 90th percentile.
Total Bases
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #6 ballpark in the majors for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Davis Martin throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have the upper hand in today's game.. Spencer Horwitz has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. By putting up a 1.37 K/BB rate this year, Spencer Horwitz has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, placing in the 93rd percentile.
AZ
@
KC
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ketel Marte o1.5 Total Bases (-102)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #5 field in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the schedule today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Total RBIs
Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+143)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #5 field in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the schedule today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
CHC
@
MIL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Ian Happ is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. American Family Field projects as the #8 park in the league for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.
Total Bases
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. William Contreras is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. American Family Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.
CIN
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 9 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Max Muncy o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Max Muncy is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for LHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 19th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #3 ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
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Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
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First Five Innings MLB Picks
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MLB Picks And Parlays
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