MLB Picks

The Padres rank 10th in road wRC+ the past two weeks (116 wRC+), while ranking eighth with a .179 ISO. Meanwhile, hitters are slugging Nola’s fastball at a ridiculous .904 clip.

Vasquez is going to struggle with the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryce Harper. Against RHP in May, Harper posted a 46.7% HR/FB rate and 190 wRC+, while Schwarber posted a 61.5% pull% and 41% hard-hit rate. 

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Curtis Mead is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Curtis Mead has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Curtis Mead has significantly improved, with an increase from 4.4% last year to 11.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup.

It goes without saying that if I expect the Guardians to make Schlitter labor some, then I should like a low total going Over. I do, and I'd play this to 8 at +100. On the other side of things, like we've hit on often with the Yankees, giving them free passes is an issue. Joey Cantillo’s 12.7% walk rate is a problem, as it gives a group with patience and power a chance to create traffic. For the most part, you're looking for both teams to score 3 or so runs, and I'm comfortable backing that here.

Salvador Perez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #1 venue in the league for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Salvador Perez will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Abbott today.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Despite posting a .266 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Salvador Perez has experienced some negative variance given the .053 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.

Elder has allowed just five home runs all season, making this more of a half-unit sprinkle than a full-sized play. Still, Springer has shown encouraging signs lately, recording a hit in 10 of his last 13 games. Last season, he excelled against sinker-heavy pitchers, batting .371 with a .661 expected slugging percentage against the pitch type.

 

McDonald has not been nearly as tough on left-handed hitters, allowing a .283 average and .358 wOBA. 

The Brewers have an abundance of lefties to throw at McDonald, including Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick.

The Giants might only need a couple of runs to push this game Over the total.

Playable to -130.

I'm backing the NRFI in the White Sox vs. Twins matchup, largely because of David Martin's dominance in the first inning. The top-rated pitcher in the Batters-Box season ratings owns a 1.64 first-inning ERA and has held opponents to a .195 batting average through 11 starts. On the other side, Connor Prielipp's first-inning ERA is concerning, but his underlying numbers at home remain strong, including a .167 xBA allowed and a 36.7% strikeout rate over his last 30 hitters faced. With the White Sox struggling against left-handed pitching and striking out at a high rate, this sets up as a strong NRFI spot.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.. Nathan Eovaldi will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ivan Herrera in today's matchup.. Ivan Herrera has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.. Typically, batters like Ivan Herrera who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nathan Eovaldi.. The Texas Rangers outfield defense projects as the 5th-best out of all the teams today.

Nick Kurtz enters a strong matchup against Jameson Taillon with his hits, runs, RBI prop priced near even money, which looks undervalued based on underlying trends. He ranks number one on Batters-Box and consistently clears this number in elite ratings, especially on the road where his hit rate approaches 70%. Taillon has struggled with hard contact, barrels, and elevated metrics, particularly against left-handed hitters, allowing heavy damage across multiple advanced stats. Given Kurtz’s consistent production profile and Taillon’s recent struggles, the data supports a strong edge on the over. I would personally take this prop up to -120 tonight.

Yordan Alvarez finds himself in a dream matchup against Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. The Astros slugger has been scorching hot against right-handed pitching, posting a 64.4% hard-hit rate, 42.9% barrel rate, and 78.6% elevation rate over his last 30 plate appearances. He also owns 100% arsenal coverage against Chandler's pitch mix, according to Batters-Box. Chandler has struggled to keep left-handed hitters in the yard, allowing plenty of hard contact and fly balls while surrendering a .510 xSLG and .365 xwOBA. With Chandler throwing fastballs nearly 54% of the time, Alvarez is in prime position to do damage tonight.

Angel Stadium has the shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Oswald Peraza will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Oswald Peraza has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .349.. Posting a .454 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Oswald Peraza has performed in the 77th percentile.

Soroka added a cutter to his slurve/four-seamer mix, resulting in a big dip in hard-hit rate and a 7-2 record with a 3.25 ERA. Arizona’s bullpen hasn’t allowed a run in three games and has surrendered just one earned run in the last five. 

The Under is a safe bet, but if the odds go beyond -125, your money might be better spent elsewhere.

He has held opponents scoreless in three of his last four starts and allowed only 13 hits during that stretch. It’ll be difficult for the Mets offense to generate much

The Mariners have plated an average of 3.3 runs per game over their last 15 in Seattle, where it is generally harder for them to score.

Play the Under to -130.