The Toronto Blue Jays close out a rough four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon, with both sides priced at -110.
Toronto’s bats have gone missing for most of this series, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting the ball as hard as he has all year, and he's the focus of my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions.
Read on for my MLB picks for this Thursday, July 23 matchup.
Rays vs Blue Jays predictions
Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
While I won’t ever base a bet on one swing, I saw some great cuts from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Wednesday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.
In his first at-bat, he crushed a double the other way to right field at 105 mph, narrowly missing a home run. He’s swinging hard trying to drag this offense out of its rut, and I expect that to translate against Rays starter Ian Seymour.
As I’ll get into below, Seymour serves up meatball fastballs. He’s allowed a homer in four straight starts, and opponents own a .497 xSLG against his fastball, sinker and cutter.
Guerrero also holds the platoon advantage here, carrying a .762 OPS and 121 wRC+ against southpaws, far above his numbers vs. righties.
I’d play this to +110.
COVERS INTEL: Guerrero topped 105 mph exit velocity on all four of his balls in play Wednesday, and he now draws a pitcher who lives up in the zone with his fastball.
Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen worked hard on Wednesday, and fatigue tends to show up late in a series, while Ian Seymour’s penchant for allowing homers gives Toronto a path to runs of its own.
I’ll add Vladdy Over 0.5 hits, leaning on the same hard contact behind my best bet, then finish with the Blue Jays on the moneyline — banking on the home side finally breaking out with a statement win in the finale.
Rays vs Blue Jays SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits
- Over 8.5
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Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)
By all accounts, Kazuma Okamoto is the best home run bet on the board.
He’s the perfect foil for Rays starter Ian Seymour, who carries a 1.6 HR/9, has allowed a homer in four straight outings and owns a bad fastball.
The left-hander has a very good changeup (+9 run value), but his fastball grades out below average (-2 run value), and the heat maps show it sitting high in the zone.
Enter Okamoto, who owns a +12 run value against the four-seamer, slugs .578 on that pitch, and leads the Blue Jays with five home runs against lefties this season.
The matchup works on both the pitch mix and the platoon side, which makes him the best home run bet on the card.
I’d bet this to +250 but no shorter, at my standard quarter unit.
- Best bets: 8-8, -0.57 units
- SGPs: 2-15, -2.06 units
- HR picks: 3-14, -0.50 units
Rays vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -110 | Toronto -110
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150) | Toronto +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have seen the Over cash in eight of their last 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Thursday, 7-23-2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, Sportsnet |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ian Seymour (6-2, 4.79 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (1-1, 5.70 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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