The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks as -112 favorites tonight at Busch Stadium.
With Brandon Pfaadt toeing the rubber for Arizona opposite Michael McGreevy, my Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals predictions are favoring the home side and the Over.
I explain why in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23, below.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Cardinals today: Cardinals (-112)
I'm no longer a believer in Brandon Pfaadt. I was high on the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander as a prospect and into his first full season in the rotation in 2024. His 4.71 ERA that year seemed fake, as he boasted an expected ERA of 3.73 and a 3.61 FIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate. In other words, there was a clear path for improvement.
That hasn't happened. His 2025 was a disaster, and 2026 found him back in the minors for a spell while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation with the top club. His 4.58 ERA isn't far off his xERA, and his ability to miss bats has regressed, with a 15th-percentile whiff rate and a strikeout rate in the 14th.
Opponents own a 9% barrel rate against him (29th percentile), and while he's pitched better since returning to the rotation, there's way too much smoke to ignore the fire.
Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt are among the bats who will feast on Pfaadt's offerings early, giving the St. Louis Cardinals enough of a lead that the bullpen won't blow it this time.
The relief corps' shakiness is the only reason I'm not taking the run line, as it's shown that a big lead can evaporate in the blink of an eye.
Play to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Walker's breakout is legitimate, and his 100th-percentile bat speed helps him catch up to high-velocity arms and to really punish those like Pfaadt, who might touch 94.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+140)
Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy give up regular and loud contact.
McGreevy has limited the damage well enough, as indicated by his 2.92 ERA, but it's simply not sustainable. I like him to outpitch Pfaadt, but that's about it.
He's also stepping in against baseball's hottest offense. The Diamondbacks have scored a whopping 66 runs over their last 10 games in the past two weeks.
The Cardinals have watched theirs dry up a bit in that span, but Pfaadt's deficiencies will help reignite St. Louis' bats.
I'd play this down to even money and would even consider Over 9.5 at +180 or longer.
- ML/RL bets: 6-1, +5.23 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-3, -0.2 units
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals weather
A high-pressure system with winds blowing toward home plate could suppress fly ball distance, limiting home run potential at Busch Stadium, so the scoring may come by a stream of consistent contact where the ball stays in play.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +104 | Cardinals -108
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) | Cardinals -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+150) | Under 8.5 (-156)
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Thursday, July 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Diamondbacks.TV, Cardinals.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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