MLB Picks

My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge, but at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105. Neither starter is built to fully shut this down and I'd be suprised if they did.

For example, Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path.

Ultimately, I do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren; we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
 

This might be the best pitching matchup of the day with Drew Rasmussen taking on Kevin Gausman, and with how putrid Toronto's offense has been, it's tough to find a path to both teams scoring. The Blue Jays have scored just two runs over their last three games, and their only win since the All-Star break was a 1-0 shutout. Toronto's high-leverage bullpen arms are all available, and the Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these clubs. The Jays own the worst offense in baseball by wRC+ over the last 30 days and now face a pitcher who has fared well vs. them throughout his career. Rasmussen owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 13 career appearances against Toronto, while right-handed hitters are batting just .159 against him this season.

Rafaela has touched home plate and recorded at least a hit in five consecutive games (14 total HRR). He sports a team-best 25 doubles and is on pace for career-best slashes. He also has an XBH and an RBI in three of his last five as he and the Sox look for a franchise record-tying 15th straight win.

Both offenses enter in excellent form, with Atlanta carrying a .298 ISO and San Diego posting a 147 wRC+ over their recent stretches. Buehler’s hard-contact and home-run issues give the Braves a clear scoring path, while the Padres’ hot bats create enough offensive pressure to support the Over tonight.

The Rangers swing and miss vs. southpaws at a high rate, posting the MLB's fourth-worst K% vs. left-handed pitching. Noah Schultz rolls into today's start with extra rest and projects for 85 pitches, but has a ceiling in the 90s. THE BAT has this fair price at around -110, and the projections at Covers are forecasting 4.71 punchouts on the road.  Schultz is a 22-year-old giant as a 6-foot-10 left-hander who might see the leash grow in relation to the White Sox's division hopes. He can blow past his K total with four of his 11 starts going for 6+ Ks. He missed all of June with a knee injury, so this extended rest should be very beneficial. Texas might have the No.4 offense vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 109, but the 25% K rate is the same as the Rockies. 

The Under case is built around Valdez’s recent form and two bullpens trending in the right direction. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 3.11 xERA over two weeks, while Chicago’s relief corps has a 3.34 xERA over four games. Neither lineup is showing overwhelming power despite recent offensive production overall tonight either.

Mead is 8-for-16 after the break with four extra-base hits, and this should have a fair price of +350 at Coors Field vs. Michael Lorenzen. The Colorado starter has allowed just one dinger over his last four starts, but he has the worst BlastCont% among all MLB starters today (last 30 days), and the homers could be coming. Looking back over the last two seasons, only two other starters today have a worse HR/9 than Lorenzen. Ball Park Pal has this as the second-best HR setting on the board today.

Walbert Urena is sporting a 2.83 ERA and has allowed 0.63 homers per nine innings over five matchups with Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. righties. 

While the Los Angeles Angels have strung together hits against southpaws, they sit 22nd in OPS and 29th in FB% in July.

It’ll be tough to generate homers, and I don’t see 10+ runs being scored without plenty of aid from power.

I like the Under to -125.

Let's crap on a rookie making his MLB debut Tuesday night in Arizona. With the litany of injuries in the Diamondbacks' rotation, Triple-A call-up Kohl Drake gets the ball. He brings a 7.00 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across his last two seasons at Triple-A. He hasn't been a strikeout-per-inning arm during that stretch, and command could be a real issue at the next level after issuing 45 walks over his last 100 innings. He also gives up plenty of contact, allowing 122 hits — including 16 home runs — over those same 100 frames. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup, none of which grades above 50 on Baseball Savant. THE BAT projects him for 78 pitches and just 3.7 strikeouts, making this a play down to even money. There is nothing like fading a young prospect in his MLB debut against a very good Athletics lineup. I'm hoping the adrenaline gets pumping early and the command issues drive up the pitch count in a hurry.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.