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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 13, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.22 |
+158 
|
o8.5 -128 
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.23 |
-150 
|
u9.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +135
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 vs. National League West.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.02 |
+112 
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
5.46 |
-125 
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160 
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts overall.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 13-1-1 in Holmes' last 15 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Holmes' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+155 
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
5.55 |
-175
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.94 |
+115
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
5.23 |
-120
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +172
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. American League West.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.06 |
+130
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -176
|
|
4.28 |
-148
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Ceases last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+346)
o0.5+350
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
+120
|
o7.5 -117
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.34 |
-124
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +168
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in Wesneskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
o1.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-137
|
o8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +123
|
|
3.78 |
+130
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Dodgers
- Over is 7-0 in Wrobleskis last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Wrobleskis last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Marlins last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Max Muncy u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
+115
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.42 |
-125
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +170
|
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Prielipps last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Prielipps last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+171)
o0.5+171
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.05 |
+170
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.08 |
-195
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +110
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1 in Reds last 10 vs. National League Central.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
-114
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +143
|
|
4.05 |
+120
|
u8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -160
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in McGreevys last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.38 |
+135
|
o6.0 -177
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
3.97 |
-140
|
u7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Boyds last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+254)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.09 |
+165
|
o7.0 -122
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
4.38 |
-180
|
u7.5 -120
|
-2.5 +200
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Camerons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Tolles last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+271)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.60 |
-130
|
o9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -286
|
|
5.48 |
+116
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +225
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Millers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 road starts.
Athletics
- are 5-0 in Lopezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Lopezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 9-1 in last 10 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
o0.5+950
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
+120
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.87 |
-125
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Gabriel Moreno o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-126
|
o7.0 -135
|
+1.5 -275
|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
u8.5 -177
|
-1.5 +215
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Webbs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.12 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Lodolos last 8 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.67 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in Sorianos last 7 starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as a road favorite.
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.37 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.63 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 10-2 in Braves last 12 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Braves last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 home games.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.32 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.14 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Mariners last 9 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 on grass.
Arizona
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 overall.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
PHI
@
ATL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+270)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Matt Olson is on the verge of a breakout.
He has posted a 22.2% barrel rate and 97.3 mile per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties the past 25 games. Those just happen to be Andrew Painter’s primary pitches against lefties.
Zooming out, Olson's season ISO is .329 against fastballs and .629 against the slider. Downright absurd.
Total
u9.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Under is appealing and playable to 59%.
Grant Holmes' barrel rate is trending in the right direction – 5.6% the past month vs. 8.5% this season – and the Philadelphia Phillies are struggling to hit for power, an encouraging combination.
Andrew Painter has quietly pitched to a 3.55 xERA the last 30 days. He’s in a much better spot than early in the year, and should avoid major damage.
NYM
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Aaron Judge o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge’s hits, runs and RBI prop is a rare opportunity to grab the Yankees captain at a reasonable price. Judge has surpassed this prop in more than 57% of his 373 elite ratings over the last three seasons, while going over 2.5 nearly 46% of the time and homering almost 30%. He draws Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who has struggled against right-handed hitters on the road, allowing a .294 batting average, .412 SLG and .366 wOBA. Judge has recorded three hits in four games since returning from injury and continues to generate plenty of hard contact. The play is worth targeting at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+266)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge stands out as the top home run target against Christian Scott and the Mets. Scott has struggled more against right-handed hitters, allowing them to hit .294 with a .412 SLG and .366 wOBA on the road this season. Judge enters today with an elite Batters-Box rating, a spot where he homers nearly 30% of the time. While he has yet to leave the yard since returning from injury, his recent contact has been encouraging. Each of his last five balls in play has left the bat at 93 MPH or harder, including three at 100.3 MPH or better. The bleachers are calling.
LAA
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+108)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Grayson Rodriguez has struggled mightily over his last three starts, posting a 5.74 ERA and 1.72 WHIP while left-handed hitters have continued to crush him. Lefties are generating a hard-hit rate above 52%, a 10.5% barrel rate and a 68.4% elevation rate during that stretch. That creates an appealing matchup for Washington Nationals first baseman Abimelec Ortiz, who enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box and covers nearly 85% of Rodriguez’s arsenal. Ortiz has also maintained a .719 SLG, .407 ISO, 50%+ hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He is in an excellent spot against Rodriguez.
Total Home Runs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not a bad day for dingers in Washington with Grayson Rodriguez on the bump. He has the third-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and has given up multiple homers in back-to-back starts. It's a big-total game that could see the Nats' healthy offense stack some runs. The best value on the home side is CJ Abrams at 20.4%, with a fair probability of 23.5%. He's slugging .461 in the second half and leads the team with 10 dingers. He got over the toughest one to get, his 30th, and is looking to finish a breakout season with a great home-run matchup at home this afternoon. James Wood and CJ Abrams should not be four percentage points apart in home-run pricing.
BAL
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:37 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+305)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
HOU
@
TB
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Daulton Varsho u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.. Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best of all teams on the slate).. Daulton Varsho will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jose Altuve o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jose Altuve's batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jose Altuve's launch angle lately (22.8° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 10.6° seasonal angle.
LAD
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+214)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Otto Lopez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Emmet Sheehan.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Otto Lopez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 14.1% on the season to 20% in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Griffin Conine pulls many of his flyballs (37.1% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Griffin Conine's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 99.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 97.2-mph over the last 14 days.
CLE
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Trevor Larnach u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Target Field ranks as the #25 field in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Target Field.. In the league, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.. The weather report predicts the 2nd-most favorable pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. In the past week's worth of games, Trevor Larnach's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.
Total Bases
Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.. Over the last 7 days, Ryan Jeffers's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 18.2%.
CIN
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Robert Gasser o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-150)
Projection 5.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz).. It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Doug Eddings) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 3rd-best field in baseball for strikeouts.. This game is predicted to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Robert Gasser will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats across the board.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field ranks as the #8 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
CHW
@
STL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an advantage today.. Colson Montgomery has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy doesn't generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for Montgomery.
Total Bases
Kyle Teel o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Kyle Teel has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kyle Teel will have the handedness advantage against Michael McGreevy today.
PIT
@
CHC
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of MLB’s most dangerous hitters all season, and he finds himself in a favorable spot against Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, Crow-Armstrong is batting .320 with a .720 SLG and 1.120 OPS, while generating a nearly 58% hard-hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate. Chandler has also struggled against left-handed hitters, who own a .300 xBA, .487 xSLG and .284 ISO over his last 60 faced. With Crow-Armstrong’s recent production and matchup working in his favor, there is value on his hits, runs and RBI prop at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Tom Oldfield
Betting Analyst
Target Alex Bregman's scorching September form - he’s gone 13-for-37 this month, with two dingers and a 1.039 OPS.
With one hit off Chandler in a small sample size, and extra-base blasts off a couple of Pittsburgh relievers, Bregman offers great value here, and he’s smashed 18 of his 25 homers off righties.
KC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Isaac Collins o0.5 Total RBIs (+325)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (94%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Isaac Collins will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Payton Tolle today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Isaac Collins's true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .014 deviation between that mark and his actual .299 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (94%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Payton Tolle throws from, Salvador Perez will have an edge in today's matchup.
SEA
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+267)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not every day you get the most probable home run on the board at a +EV price, but that's what's happening today with Cal Raleigh at a fair probability of 33%. I think we can thank the NFL slate for this sneaky price. It's the best setting in baseball for dingers today, and Cal Raleigh is making up for lost time with nine home runs over the last 30 days and a top-20 slugging percentage of .628. He's also owned Jacob Lopez, with three home runs in five plate appearances. Do you hear that? That's the sound of Lopez's knees knocking together at the thought of facing Raleigh today.
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+318)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Shea Langeliers is back in the Athletics' lineup, and at around 24% today, it's a great spot to back him to go yard with a fair probability of 28.6%. It's a Sutter Health Park game, which is always good for the taters. It's no surprise it's the best park today for home runs by a wide margin, per Ball Park Pal. At home, Langeliers slugs 100 points better than he does on the road. The next green check is the pitching matchup. Bryce Miller has the worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and is not in great form. In the second half of this year, he owns the 13th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters and the 28th-worst HR/FB rate. Miller hasn't gotten to 15 outs in four straight starts.
TEX
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-119)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
This should be a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, as both Quantrill and Rodriguez have been lights out over their last five outings. Quantrill’s numbers are above, but Rodriguez has posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and allowed just a 2.44% barrel rate during that span.
Plus, with how cold the Diamondbacks’ bats have been, the Rangers will likely be the only team producing runs. Asking for nine runs in this spot feels like a lot.
Total Home Runs
Justin Foscue o0.5 Total Home Runs (+630)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Justin Foscue is the preferred look here, with Jake Burger serving as a strong replacement option. Foscue has been excellent against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .614 SLG and .291 ISO while maintaining a 31.9% ground-ball rate. Batters-Box also has the 27-year-old covering nearly 80% of Rodriguez’s pitch mix, giving him strong coverage against what the pitcher is expected to throw. Given how well Foscue has been seeing the ball against southpaws, he stands out as one of the best home run looks in this matchup.
SD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 13 • 7:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Rafael Devers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The way Rafael Devers has been swinging the bat, this is an auto-bet.
Let’s keep it short and sweet. Over his last 10 games, Devers owns a 1.000 SLG, .707 xSLG and .658 ISO, generating a 66.7% hard-hit rate and a 26% barrel rate.
He is covering 100% of San Diego Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta’s pitch mix. Let the hot streak ride!
Total
u7.5 (-122)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Webb's impressive groundball rate gives him a solid floor. Also, his above-average chase rate creates a combination that can turn hard-hit balls into double plays and limit extra-base damage. One of these offenses hasn’t been great all season and sees a pitcher who looks like his old self, while the other will face a tough matchup. With seven runs providing some margin for late scoring and Pivetta’s workload creating the only major concern, Under 7 is playable at 51% or better.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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