Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 15, 2026.
MIA
@
CIN
Sat, Aug 15 • 6:40 PM ET
SD
@
CLE
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-103)
The Over 8.5 is a Padres-led angle, with Cantillo struggling and Cleveland’s bullpen vulnerable lately. San Diego owns a 139 wRC+ and .230 ISO over the last week, giving it enough upside to carry scoring. Cleveland’s recent 111 wRC+ also gives the Guardians a chance to contribute tonight at Progressive.
SD (+105)
San Diego has the cleaner edge behind Randy Vasquez, who owns a 2.44 xERA over his last six outings while limiting homers and inducing ground balls. Joey Cantillo has struggled lately, allowing hard contact and home runs, while the Padres enter with a 139 wRC+ and .230 ISO over the last week.
PHI
@
MIN
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:10 PM ET
u8.5 (-116)
PHI (-131)
SEA
@
HOU
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Taylor Trammell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+625)
Taylor Trammell is hammering the baseball. He leads the Astros in ISO and SLG while barreling the ball at an astronomical 40% clip over the last 20 games.
He is striking out a ton while chasing power, but it’s hard to argue with a sky-high barrel rate and average distance of 340 feet over that period of time.
Bet to +600.
o8.5 (-110)
Just four of 16 Emerson Hancock starts have come against Top-10 offenses in ISO vs. righties. He didn’t hold up in those games, posting a 5.32 ERA.
Hayden Wesneski ranks in the 16th percentile in xSLG and 12th percentile in xwOBA. Those are alarming numbers considering he has only faced the Angels, Blue Jays, and Giants – three bad offenses.
Bet the Over to -125.
BOS
@
PIT
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:15 PM ET
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Jared Jones throws a ton of fastballs and sliders, and Wilyer Abreu owns ISOs of .227 and .484 against those pitches when facing righties.
Abreu is also in fantastic form, ranking in the 99th percentile in ISO vs. right-handed pitching the past 20 games.
Bet to +360.
u8.0 (-120)
Sonny Gray throws three pitches more frequently than the fastball. The Pittsburgh Pirates have posted a 3.9% barrel rate vs. the sinker, and have hit .235 or worse against sliders and cutters.
Boston does not hit for much power against the fastball, and Jared Jones’ 95th percentile average fastball velocity will help him neutralize it.
Bet to -130.
AZ
@
ATL
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:15 PM ET
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+414)
This is a rare situation where the pitching we're backing could be the most homer vulnerable As mentioned, that's because of the 42%+ hard-hit rate that Grant Holmes carries coming into this matchup. Corbin Carroll is poised to take advantage of that.
Holmes throws his slider, four-seamer, and cutter 74.8% of the time, led by a slider at 36.3%.
Carroll owns a .573 xSLG and 58.8% hard-hit rate against sliders, along with a .400 xSLG against four-seamers and .487 xSLG against cutters. He has also generated positive run value against all three pitch types.
Holmes will have to live in areas of his arsenal that match Carroll’s strongest contact profile, making him the best Arizona power target.
o9.0 (-110)
The starter ERAs point toward a pitchers' game, but the underlying contact suggests otherwise.
Grant Holmes owns a 3.47 ERA despite a 4.76 xERA, 90.9-mph average exit velocity, 42.1% hard-hit rate, and 9.1% barrel rate. Rodriguez has his own separation between results and expected production, with opponents carrying a .445 xSLG against him. The Braves should get the best of the DBacks but it won’t come without allowing runs. Both starters have allowed enough damaging contact to make a total of 9 playable, especially with temperatures near 90 degrees at first pitch. I’d play Over 9.5 as the stronger call.
MIL
@
LAD
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:15 PM ET
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total Home Runs (+414)
Jackson Chourio has been Milwaukee’s most consistent home run hitter this year with 17 dingers in 89 games. The right-handed slugger has hammered left-handed pitching, with five homers in just 94 at-bats while carrying a .309 average and .521 SLG. Breaking balls have been a weak spot for Wrobleski, who carries a -3 breaking run value according to Statcast. Wrobleski’s slider has been hit out of the park five times this season, and Chourio himself has hit nine of his 17 dingers off that pitch.
u7.5 (-121)
The Dodgers are scoring 3.62 rpg over their last 13 outings, while the Brewers are averaging just 3 rpg over their last seven. Milwaukee owns the eighth-worst average and highest K% vs. lefties this month, so I don't expect much offense on either side.
KC
@
LAA
Sat, Aug 15 • 9:38 PM ET
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+226)
Jac Caglianone is red-hot, with four homers in his last six games and a massive .583 ISO over the last week. He also owns a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate. Reid Detmers’ recent homer issues and an Angels bullpen allowing loud contact give him multiple power paths tonight.
TEX
@
ATH
Sat, Aug 15 • 9:40 PM ET
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for August 15
MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for August 15
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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