Philadelphia @ New York picks

Aaron Judge continues to put up historic numbers, and while the Yankees are struggling lately, he hasn’t missed a beat. The slugger is hitting .345 with 37 home runs, and he just went deep in the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. He has four career homers vs. Taijuan Walker.

Warren has allowed three homers across his last two starts alone, and of the 11 bombs he’s given up, nine of those have came off the bats of left-handed hitters like Harper. 

Taijuan Walker has done a moderately good job of inducing soft contact on the season, with strong barrel rate numbers and hard-hit numbers. However, his cutter-heavy approach is concerning. Walker has been able to get through most innings throwing this pitch almost 39% of the time, and it’s inducing a batting average of .189. But what happens if that doesn’t hold up here? The New York Yankees have obliterated most cutter-heavy pitchers, ranking in the top three in baseball when facing that pitch, on almost any metric you can find. I think this strikeout number, on the surface, is too high when you look at what Walker and the Yankees have done this season. When you consider the risk of him being run early, it becomes too good to pass up.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Giancarlo Stanton has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn't generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Stanton.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Trent Grisham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker in today's matchup.

Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Anthony Volpe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Anthony Volpe has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.1% seasonal rate to 31.3% over the past 7 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team in action today.

Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Because of Will Warren's large platoon split, Max Kepler will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Max Kepler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Considering Will Warren's large platoon split, Kyle Schwarber will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Ben Rice is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Ben Rice will have an edge in today's matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Giancarlo Stanton has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn't generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Stanton.