Philadelphia @ New York Picks & Props

The #2 stadium in the game for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Cody Bellinger's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 90.7-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 86.2-mph in the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cody Bellinger's true offensive skill to be a .327, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .030 gap between that mark and his actual .357 wOBA.

Yankee Stadium grades out as the #27 stadium in the game for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Yankee Stadium has the 6th-deepest CF fences in MLB. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Will Warren will have the handedness advantage over Trea Turner today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Warren's large platoon split. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trea Turner in today's matchup.

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage over Will Warren in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Warren has a large platoon split. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryson Stott has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Yankee Stadium grades out as the #27 stadium in the game for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Taijuan Walker will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Judge today. Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Aaron Judge has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 26.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 16.7% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker today. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Will Warren today... and even more favorably, Warren has a large platoon split. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.8°, Otto Kemp has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 20° mark in the past 7 days. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Otto Kemp has had some very poor luck this year. His .313 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Because of Will Warren's large platoon split, Max Kepler will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Max Kepler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Anthony Volpe will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Anthony Volpe has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.1% seasonal rate to 31.3% over the past 7 days. Over the last 14 days, Anthony Volpe has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 34.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.2°.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Because of Will Warren's large platoon split, Brandon Marsh will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Brandon Marsh has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today. Over the last 7 days, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 21.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Ben Rice is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Ben Rice will have an edge in today's matchup. Ben Rice pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Considering Will Warren's large platoon split, Kyle Schwarber will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today. Paul Goldschmidt will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 45.2% on the season to 62.5% in the last week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Trent Grisham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker in today's matchup. Trent Grisham pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team playing today. Based on Statcast data, Nick Castellanos is in the 83rd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .275.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today. Oswald Peraza will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Oswald Peraza has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .202 rate is deflated compared to his .258 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Checking in at the 77th percentile, the hardest ball Oswald Peraza has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.8 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today. Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Austin Wells will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.