MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, July 25

Our home run picks for tonight like Manny Machado to take advantage of a matchup with Miles Mikolas, and much more.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Jul 25, 2025 • 10:50 ET • 4 min read
Manny Machado MLB San Diego Padres
Photo By - Imagn Images. Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres in MLB action.

Today’s MLB player props analysis will highlight a pair of sluggers in tonight's Phillies-Yankees matchup in Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper. 

I'll also tell you why Manny Machado will jump the yard later on this Friday, July 25.

Best MLB home run props today

  • Yankees Judge (+145)
  • Phillies Harper (+230)
  • Padres Machado (+380)
  • 💲 +3380 parlay💲

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HR picks for July 25

Aaron Judge (+145 at DraftKings)

Aaron Judge continues to put up historic numbers, and while the Yankees are struggling lately, he hasn’t missed a beat. 

The slugger is hitting .345 with 37 home runs, and he just went deep in the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. In fact, he already has two long balls since the All-Star break concluded. 

Judge and the Bronx Bombers welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town tonight for the start of a three-game series. The Phils hand Taijuan Walker the baseball, and Judge is 4-for-13 lifetime against him with four homers. Yes, you read that correctly. 

Of Judge’s 37 bombs, 26 have come off right-handed hurlers, and he has left the yard 17 times at home this season. Walker has given up nine homers this year, and Judge is hot. No. 38 could be on its way this evening in the Big Apple. 

Bryce Harper (+230 at DraftKings)

He only has 14 homers this season, but Bryce Harper has some of the best power in the sport. We’ve seen that many, many times over the years. 

The slugger has also gone deep four times across his last six contests, and just went yard on Wednesday in the rubber match against the Boston Red Sox. 

New York sends Will Warren the hill tonight. Although Harper is 0-for-3 lifetime against him, eight of his bombs are off right-handed pitchers. 

Warren has allowed three homers across his last two starts alone, and of the 11 bombs he’s given up, nine of those have came off the bats of left-handed hitters like Harper. 

Harper has really found his power stroke as of late, and he’ll be amped up for a matchup with the Yankees as the Phils look to get hot and take back first place in the NL East. The short porch in right certainly helps his case, too. 

Manny Machado (+380 at DraftKings)

Manny Machado just had a banner day on Thursday in the series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals, finishing 3-for-5 with a home run. That was his 19th round-tripper of the campaign, and he's also hitting .289.

It’s been a very impressive season for the veteran third baseman. Machado will also be liking tonight’s matchup. 

The Cards will start Miles Mikolas, who is having a nightmare year. He owns a 5.20 ERA and has surrendered 17 home runs in 19 starts.

Machado is 4-for-17 lifetime against him, and although that’s just a .235 average, two of those hits left the ballpark. Machado has nine bombs off righties, too. 

Over the last two games, Machado has collected five hits. He’s swinging the bat with authority, and Mikolas tends to make a lot of mistakes.

Back-to-back games with a long ball? It’s certainly a possibility this evening.

Today’s HR parlay

Aaron Judge home run

Bryce Harper home run

Manny Machado home run

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
  2. Aaron Judge, Yankees
  3. Eugenio Suarez, D-backs

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications. He's currently a senior editor at ClutchPoints and has published work for numerous betting websites in the past. 

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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