San Diego @ Philadelphia picks

Both the Padres and Phillies trend heavily to the Under this season. The Under is 47-34 for San Diego and 46-36 for Philadelphia, and both squads have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games. Neither team is swinging the bat well right now, either. The Padres have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last five games, with the Phillies at four runs or fewer in three straight and six of their previous seven games.

The Phils will be up against Dylan Cease in the second contest this evening, and Kyle Schwarber is one hitter in the lineup who loves to face the struggling righty. He’s 3-for-7 lifetime with two home runs. 

Sanchez has a 2.79 ERA with .229 OBA through 16 starts. The southpaw has allowed fewer than 5.5 hits in 10 of his last 13 starts. The Padres were just 25th in the majors in OPS (.679) in June. They've also struggled to hit southpaws all year, ranking 22nd in OPS (.657) against lefties. Sanchez is in the top 15th percentile in barrel rate and ground ball rate while the Friars have the second-lowest barrel rate and the sixth-highest ground ball rate. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an edge in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease in today's game.. Max Kepler will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. The Barrel% of Max Kepler has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.2% last year to 12.8% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Nick Castellanos will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. Nick Castellanos has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 10th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average talent.. Trea Turner is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Trea Turner will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Trea Turner has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 90.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Jackson Merrill has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team in action today.. Jackson Merrill's launch angle lately (26.5° in the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 14° seasonal mark.

Manny Machado's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team in action today.

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. J.T. Realmuto has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96.8-mph over the last week.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates J.T. Realmuto's true offensive skill to be a .329, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .037 gap between that mark and his actual .292 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Bryce Harper will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.