Boston @ San Francisco picks

Lucas Giolito started this season in rocky fashion, but he's turned a corner of late. Giolito has held opponents to one run or fewer in four of the last five starts, with one blow-up game against a homer-heavy Angels team the lone exception. Otherwise, three of the four games were quality starts against competitive teams with positive run differentials in the Mariners, Rays, and Braves. The underlying numbers suggest that the strong results Giolito has posted over the last month are well-deserved. He has a 2.75 FIP during that span, which is even lower than his ERA (2.84).

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Heliot Ramos will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his home run talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's game.. Willy Adames has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last two weeks.. Willy Adames's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (27°) is quite a bit higher than his 22.2° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have the upper hand in today's game.. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. With 7 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Robbie Ray meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Robbie Ray (39.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Boston's projected offense.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's matchup.. Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Mike Yastrzemski will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.5-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. The switch-hitting Patrick Bailey will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Lucas Giolito.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Patrick Bailey will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. When it comes to his home runs, Patrick Bailey has been unlucky this year. His 3.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.1.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Roman Anthony is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.