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Mets starter David Peterson, on the other hand, has his hands full with the Bronx Bombers. New York paces the majors in wOBA (.377) and ISO (.239) against lefties, and he’s surrendered a healthy 51.5% hard-hit rate. I'm also confident opposing starter Max Fried can navigate his way through the Mets lineup. The veteran lefty is off to a 6-0 start with a sterling 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and solid 3.55 xFIP, and his Stuff+ marks are up across the board per FanGraphs.


This price feels like a steal, and my -172 projection backs it up. Like Fried, David Peterson thrives as an elite ground-ball pitcher, with his success tied to inducing weak contact. Aside from Cody Bellinger, today's Yankee lineup has no hitter in it with a lower career ground-ball rate than Trent Grisham. That should make him a tough matchup. Grisham brings plenty to like. Against lefties, he boasts a .178 ISO, a .270+ batting average, and a .292 BABIP. Peterson leans heavily on his sinker (28% of pitches), and while Grisham's actual numbers against sinkers this season are underwhelming, his .348 xBA and .538 xSLG scream positive regression.


Through 42 plate appearances against Max Fried, Pete Alonso boasts a .472 slugging percentage, .577 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and two home runs. Alonso is also one of baseball’s top power hitters this season, ranking in the 98th percentile in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.


Pete Alonso is one of a handful of Mets with a lengthy history against Max Fried. The Polar Bear has had 36 head-to-head duels with him, with some impressive success: Two homers, seven RBI, and a .853 OPS. Add in situational aspects of things like the wind blowing out to center close to 20 mph and the platoon splits, and you'll see that there's at least an increased chance that Alonso will collect an RBI completely by himself with a longball. He usually bats third behind Juan Soto, which holds a lot of weight.


The 18.5 outs prop Over may seem ambitious, but Fried has cleared it in two of his last three starts and six of nine overall. He also did so comfortably against the New York Mets last year. His elite ground-ball rate is the key. Fried has evolved from his earlier days as a slightly more strikeout-dependent thrower to a more efficient one. His K-rate has dipped from 27% two years ago to 23% this season, reflecting a shift toward inducing quick outs. With a 52% ground-ball rate — among the league's best — and an average of 97 pitches per start, Fried has become even more of an innings-eater than before. The Mets' 45% ground ball rate ranks 10th in MLB. In four starts since April against teams with similar or higher rates, Fried has averaged 6.6 innings (19.8 outs).









