New York @ New York picks

Mets starter David Peterson, on the other hand, has his hands full with the Bronx Bombers. New York paces the majors in wOBA (.377) and ISO (.239) against lefties, and he’s surrendered a healthy 51.5% hard-hit rate. I'm also confident opposing starter Max Fried can navigate his way through the Mets lineup. The veteran lefty is off to a 6-0 start with a sterling 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and solid 3.55 xFIP, and his Stuff+ marks are up across the board per FanGraphs.

This price feels like a steal, and my -172 projection backs it up. Like Fried, David Peterson thrives as an elite ground-ball pitcher, with his success tied to inducing weak contact. Aside from Cody Bellinger, today's Yankee lineup has no hitter in it with a lower career ground-ball rate than Trent Grisham. That should make him a tough matchup. Grisham brings plenty to like. Against lefties, he boasts a .178 ISO, a .270+ batting average, and a .292 BABIP. Peterson leans heavily on his sinker (28% of pitches), and while Grisham's actual numbers against sinkers this season are underwhelming, his .348 xBA and .538 xSLG scream positive regression.

Through 42 plate appearances against Max Fried, Pete Alonso boasts a .472 slugging percentage, .577 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and two home runs. Alonso is also one of baseball’s top power hitters this season, ranking in the 98th percentile in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

Pete Alonso is one of a handful of Mets with a lengthy history against Max Fried. The Polar Bear has had 36 head-to-head duels with him, with some impressive success: Two homers, seven RBI, and a .853 OPS. Add in situational aspects of things like the wind blowing out to center close to 20 mph and the platoon splits, and you'll see that there's at least an increased chance that Alonso will collect an RBI completely by himself with a longball. He usually bats third behind Juan Soto, which holds a lot of weight. 

The 18.5 outs prop Over may seem ambitious, but Fried has cleared it in two of his last three starts and six of nine overall. He also did so comfortably against the New York Mets last year. His elite ground-ball rate is the key. Fried has evolved from his earlier days as a slightly more strikeout-dependent thrower to a more efficient one. His K-rate has dipped from 27% two years ago to 23% this season, reflecting a shift toward inducing quick outs. With a 52% ground-ball rate — among the league's best — and an average of 97 pitches per start, Fried has become even more of an innings-eater than before. The Mets' 45% ground ball rate ranks 10th in MLB. In four starts since April against teams with similar or higher rates, Fried has averaged 6.6 innings (19.8 outs). 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as the league's 17th-best home run batter.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams today.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Juan Soto is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.

Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage today.

Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Pete Alonso will have an advantage in today's game.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Aaron Judge will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball bats like Cody Bellinger generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as the league's 17th-best home run batter.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams today.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Juan Soto is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.

Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage today.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball bats like Cody Bellinger generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.