Seattle @ San Diego props

The #3 field in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Jhonathan Diaz in today's game... and even better, Diaz has a large platoon split. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle this season (6.7°) is considerably lower than his 9.7° angle last season.

The #3 field in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Stephen Kolek will hold the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today's game. The San Diego Padres outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 3rd-worst field in the majors for left-handed batting average. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Luis Arraez's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 85.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 80-mph over the last two weeks. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Randy Arozarena has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 96.8-mph in the last week's worth of games. Randy Arozarena has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season's 94.2-mph mark.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Extreme groundball batters like Cal Raleigh tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek. Cal Raleigh has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 15.5% rate last season to 20.5% this year. Cal Raleigh has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 20.5% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past week's worth of games. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 17.6% to 23%.

Jhonathan Diaz will hold the platoon advantage over Jason Heyward in today's game... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Diaz's large platoon split. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Jason Heyward will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jason Heyward's true offensive skill to be a .296, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .074 disparity between that figure and his actual .222 wOBA.

Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Elias Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Last season, Elias Diaz had an average launch angle of 6° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 9.5°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Jorge Polanco usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek. The Barrel% of Jorge Polanco has significantly improved, with an increase from 9% last year to 15.2% this year. Jorge Polanco has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Given Jhonathan Diaz's large platoon split, Jake Cronenworth will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game. Jake Cronenworth may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Over the last 7 days, Benjamin Williamson's 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%. The standard deviation of Benjamin Williamson's launch angle has been very consistent recently (35.8° in the past 7 days), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Benjamin Williamson has had some very poor luck this year. His .249 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Because of Jhonathan Diaz's large platoon split, Gavin Sheets will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Gavin Sheets will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.5% seasonal rate to 13.8% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lockridge in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Brandon Lockridge hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lockridge will hold that advantage today. Brandon Lockridge is remarkably fast, ranking in the 97th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.65 ft/sec this year.

Manny Machado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. J.P. Crawford will have the handedness advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's game. J.P. Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. J.P. Crawford has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91.4-mph in the last two weeks.

Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Miles Mastrobuoni will have an edge today. Miles Mastrobuoni has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .244 figure is a fair amount lower than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Stephen Kolek. Leody Taveras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Leody Taveras's launch angle this year (25.9°) is significantly better than his 14.1° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Jhonathan Diaz will hold the platoon advantage against Jackson Merrill in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Diaz's large platoon split. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an advantage today. Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.1% rate last season to 15.5% this season. Rowdy Tellez's launch angle lately (52° in the past week) is significantly higher than his 15.1° seasonal angle. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) provides evidence that Rowdy Tellez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .283 actual wOBA.