Tampa Bay @ Toronto props

The #4 venue in the game for suppressing base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Batting from the same side that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Bo Bichette will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.

The #4 venue in baseball for suppressing BABIP to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Chandler Simpson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Over the last 7 days, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 81.8 mph to 77.8 mph. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 4.9% on the season to 0% over the last week. Chandler Simpson has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .343 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .379 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. The switch-hitting Jonatan Clase will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Ryan Pepiot. Jonatan Clase will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Christopher Morel hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Christopher Morel has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 100.8-mph in the past 7 days. Compared to last season, Christopher Morel has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.7% to 25.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Junior Caminero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and George Springer will hold that advantage in today's matchup. George Springer has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 18.3% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe has been unlucky this year, posting a .243 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .080 difference.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Jose Caballero's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (25.3°) is quite a bit better than his 17° mark last year. Over the last 7 days, Jose Caballero's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 58.3%.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Travis Jankowski will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Travis Jankowski usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt. Travis Jankowski has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 89.4-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 86-mph figure. Travis Jankowski's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 43.4% to 53.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage in today's game. Alejandro Kirk's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 50% on the season to 57.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Alejandro Kirk has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .295 rate is considerably lower than his .325 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. In the past 14 days, Jonathan Aranda's 69.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 56%.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Anthony Santander will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Anthony Santander has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 95.4-mph over the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Anthony Santander's true offensive talent to be a .327, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .056 disparity between that mark and his actual .271 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ernie Clement has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 88.9-mph. Ernie Clement's launch angle this year (22.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.2° angle last season.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Addison Barger has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph average. Addison Barger has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.5-mph.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Daulton Varsho has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.4 mph compared to last year's 91.1 mph mark.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 16.4% to 20.3%. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 42.4% on the season to 52.9% over the past two weeks. Despite posting a .260 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Danny Jansen has experienced some negative variance given the .054 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314. Sporting a 1.32 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Danny Jansen has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 96th percentile.

Taylor Walls hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.6°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26° angle in the last 7 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.292) may lead us to conclude that Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck this year with his .255 actual wOBA.

Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Kameron Misner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Myles Straw has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.