Milwaukee @ Tampa Bay props

Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Jackson Chourio will be in a tough position in today's game. In today's game, Jackson Chourio is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (92nd percentile). The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Chourio in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Jackson Chourio's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

Among all stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field's centerfield dimensions are the 5th-deepest. Over the last 7 days, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 81.8 mph to 77.8 mph. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, going from 5.6% on the season to 0% in the last week. Chandler Simpson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) in the last 14 days.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Over the last week, Caleb Durbin's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 24.6%.

Hitting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Yandy Diaz meets a tough challenge in today's game. Yandy Diaz's launch angle in recent games (-2.5° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 4.4° seasonal mark. Grading out in the 19th percentile, Yandy Diaz has posted a .244 BABIP this year.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Jake Bauers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Jake Bauers pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen. Jake Bauers has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.5% rate last year to 18.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Extreme flyball hitters like Junior Caminero tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chad Patrick. Junior Caminero will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Extreme groundball batters like Rhys Hoskins are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen. Rhys Hoskins has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks. Rhys Hoskins has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV. In the last week, Rhys Hoskins's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.7%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Travis Jankowski will have an advantage in today's game. Bats such as Travis Jankowski with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chad Patrick who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Travis Jankowski will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Travis Jankowski has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph to 96.9-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Sal Frelick is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Sal Frelick will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. This season, Sal Frelick has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 86.2 mph compared to last year's 83.4 mph mark.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Jose Caballero's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (25.3°) is significantly higher than his 17° figure last year. Sporting a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero grades out in the 80th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Christian Yelich will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Yelich's true offensive talent to be a .339, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .052 deviation between that figure and his actual .287 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Brice Turang is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Brice Turang will have the upper hand today. Brice Turang's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 45.5% to 51.8%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 16.7% on the season to 28.6% in the past 14 days. Taylor Walls has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .264 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .302 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Danny Jansen will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal angle of 22°, Danny Jansen has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9.3°) in the last two weeks' worth of games. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.4% to 21.1%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Danny Jansen's true offensive ability to be a .314, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .062 disparity between that mark and his actual .252 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. In the last week, William Contreras's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 20%. William Contreras has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.

Kameron Misner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Kameron Misner will have the handedness advantage against Chad Patrick today. Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Christopher Morel has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.