Milwaukee @ Tampa Bay picks
George M. Steinbrenner Field
MIL vs TB Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
Right-hander Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for Tampa Bay and should serve as a good fade candidate in this market. Rasmussen has started to slide recently, surrendering five home runs over his past three starts. He is 0-2 over that stretch with a 6.28 ERA. If anyone on Milwaukee is likely to continue that trend, it’s Jake Bauers. Through five plate appearances against Rasmussen, Bauers owns a .400 slugging percentage and a .517 expected slugging percentage (xSLG). Bauers also enters this matchup in good form, posting a .375 batting average and one home run over his past three games.
Total Bases

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jake Bauers o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Jake Bauers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-118)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.
Total Bases

Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. The #8 park in the game for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Junior Caminero o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. The #8 park in the game for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.
Total Bases

Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 18th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average talent.. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The #8 park in the game for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. In the league, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.