Atlanta @ San Diego Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Sean Murphy hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Sean Murphy's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.9-mph over the course of the season to 99.4-mph in recent games. Sean Murphy's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 42.5% on the season to 57.9% over the past two weeks. In notching a .346 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Sean Murphy has performed in the 85th percentile.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Last season, Orlando Arcia had an average launch angle of 5.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 8.6°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Orlando Arcia's true offensive skill to be a .282, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 disparity between that mark and his actual .244 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 8th-worst field in the majors for lefty batting average. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has dropped to 87.3-mph. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11°, Luis Arraez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (7.3° in the past 14 days).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage today. In the last week's worth of games, Ha-seong Kim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.5% up to 14.3%.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Adam Duvall has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 85.4-mph over the last 7 days. Adam Duvall has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .255 figure is quite a bit lower than his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Jurickson Profar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Jurickson Profar's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.5% up to 15.4%. Jurickson Profar has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Jarred Kelenic will have an advantage in today's game. Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jarred Kelenic has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 93.6-mph over the last 14 days.

Jackson Merrill's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Ozzie Albies is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Travis d'Arnaud has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 94.5-mph over the last 7 days. In the last week, Travis d'Arnaud's 80% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.9%. Travis d'Arnaud has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .238 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Xander Bogaerts will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Matt Olson will have an edge today. Matt Olson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph average. Matt Olson's launch angle in recent games (21.2° over the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 15.7° seasonal figure.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Eddie Rosario will have an advantage today. Eddie Rosario has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season's 88.6-mph average. Eddie Rosario's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, increasing from 41.7% on the season to 55.6% in the last week's worth of games. In terms of his batting average, Eddie Rosario has experienced some negative variance this year. His .180 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .229.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game. Austin Riley is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Austin Riley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Austin Riley has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 15.1% seasonal rate to 30% over the past two weeks. Over the last week, Austin Riley's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph recently.

Donovan Solano's BABIP ability is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Donovan Solano will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Marcell Ozuna has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 95.7-mph over the last two weeks. Marcell Ozuna has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph figure.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, David Peralta will have an edge today. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and David Peralta will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to last season, David Peralta has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 46.8% to 57.1% this season.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Petco Park. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's game. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 17.5% to 25.6%.