Atlanta @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest RF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarred Kelenic stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Ranked in the 79th percentile, Jarred Kelenic has one of the highest average exit velocities in the game since the start of last season (90.8-mph).

CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton today. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ozzie Albies in today's game. This year, there has been a decline in Ozzie Albies's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.54 ft/sec last year to 27.03 ft/sec currently. Hitting the ball to all fields is a core talent for batting average that Ozzie Albies has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his checking in at the 2nd percentile on THE BAT X's Spray Score.

Eddie Rosario is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest RF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Eddie Rosario will have the handedness advantage against Charlie Morton today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Eddie Rosario will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Jacob Young has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jacob Young will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. With a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jacob Young has performed in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Harris II can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Michael Harris II has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has had bad variance on his side given the .045 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jesse Winker ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesse Winker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Jesse Winker will have an advantage today. Jesse Winker has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Matt Olson projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Matt Olson is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP. Matt Olson pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Brian Anderson will have an edge in today's matchup. Brian Anderson has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Brian Anderson has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (an important skill for batting average), ranking in the 90th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Charlie Morton. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz has been unlucky this year, compiling a .230 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .068 disparity.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Joey Gallo will have an edge in today's matchup. Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Joey Gallo will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Joey Gallo's 19.3% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Luis Garcia is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Luis Garcia will have an advantage in today's game. Luis Garcia has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 11th-shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Sean Murphy ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Sean Murphy will have the handedness advantage over MacKenzie Gore today. Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Sean Murphy has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .354 figure is a fair amount lower than his .392 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Travis d'Arnaud will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's game. Travis d'Arnaud has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Ranked in the 76th percentile, Travis d'Arnaud has one of the highest average exit velocities in the game since the start of last season (90.6-mph). Travis d'Arnaud grades out in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.9% rate since the start of last season).

Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Lane Thomas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 11th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .269 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Lane Thomas has experienced some negative variance given the .045 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an edge today. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Orlando Arcia will hold the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore today. Orlando Arcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Orlando Arcia has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .270 figure is deflated compared to his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The 7th-shallowest LF fences in MLB are found in Nationals Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Nick Senzel will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In terms of plate discipline, Nick Senzel's skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.6 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 88th percentile.

Adam Duvall has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Adam Duvall will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's game. Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 11th-shallowest LF fences today. Since the start of last season, Adam Duvall's 12.6% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 85th percentile among his peers.

Ildemaro Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.