Toronto @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Spencer Horwitz's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. Spencer Horwitz has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week. Spencer Horwitz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.

Kyle Bradish will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette in today's game. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In notching a .243 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Bo Bichette has performed in the 13th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 16th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today's game. Colton Cowser will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the same side that Nate Karns throws from, Ernie Clement faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Ernie Clement has posted a .275 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest among every team in action today. Despite posting a .390 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has been lucky given the .039 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #10 venue in the league for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Bradish in today's game. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Batting from the same side that Bowden Francis throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams in action today. Ryan Mountcastle has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days. Ryan Mountcastle's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 90.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84.1-mph in the last 14 days. Sporting a 3.92 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has demonstrated bad plate discipline, grading out in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This season, Kevin Kiermaier has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.7 mph compared to last year's 87.4 mph mark. Kevin Kiermaier's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (9.1°) is significantly higher than his 4.4° angle last year. Kevin Kiermaier is quite toolsy, placing in the 85th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.62 ft/sec this year.

When assessing his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nate Karns will have the handedness advantage over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in baseball for right-handed BABIP. This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Jorge Mateo will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Mateo has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .273 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323. Jorge Mateo has been great at making hard contact. If you were to look at the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (109.2 mph) rank him among the game's best: in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nate Karns will hold the platoon advantage against George Springer in today's game. George Springer has posted a .360 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #10 venue in the league for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Cavan Biggio will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish today. Cavan Biggio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Cavan Biggio is in the 100th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (23% rate since the start of last season).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #10 venue in the league for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Cedric Mullins II will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cedric Mullins II will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in baseball for right-handed BABIP. This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Bradish. Danny Jansen ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (21.4% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the platoon advantage over Bowden Francis today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #10 venue in the league for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Daniel Vogelbach will have the upper hand today. Daniel Vogelbach hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Daniel Vogelbach has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 23.64 ft/sec to 24.45 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Anthony Santander's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Heston Kjerstad will have an advantage in today's game. Heston Kjerstad hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Heston Kjerstad will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jordan Westburg will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jordan Westburg has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.5% rate last year to 11.9% this season. In the past two weeks, Jordan Westburg's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best venue in MLB for LHB base hits. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Adley Rutschman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ramon Urias has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Ramon Urias usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ramon Urias's launch angle this season (10.9°) is significantly higher than his 7.7° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Davis Schneider is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nate Karns will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Davis Schneider today. Davis Schneider has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 91.5-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the same side that Nate Karns throws from, Brian Serven has a tough challenge in today's matchup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in baseball for right-handed BABIP. This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past week, Connor Norby's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph lately. Connor Norby's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (33° over the past week) is considerably higher than his 28° seasonal angle.

Alejandro Kirk has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.