San Diego @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-driest conditions of the day at 36%. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers. Joe Ross will have the handedness advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Ross's large platoon split. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of every team playing today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Xander Bogaerts has displayed impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 81st percentile with a 1.79 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Sal Frelick is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage against Joe Musgrove in today's game. Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Luis Campusano's batting average ability is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Luis Campusano ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19.3% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Luis Campusano's launch angle since the start of last season (25.7°) is in the 82nd percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.356) may lead us to conclude that Ha-seong Kim has suffered from bad luck this year with his .306 actual wOBA. Ha-seong Kim has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 1.6 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Manny Machado has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .338 rate is a fair amount lower than his .340 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage in today's game. Jackson Chourio is notably athletic, checking in at the 78th percentile in Sprint Speed at 27.91 ft/sec this year.

American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Brice Turang will have the upper hand in today's game. Brice Turang will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willy Adames is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jackson Merrill's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Given Joe Ross's large platoon split, Jackson Merrill will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill has been hot recently, posting a .371 wOBA in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. William Contreras is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. William Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Jake Bauers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Musgrove in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Blake Perkins will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks, Blake Perkins has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .463.

American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Rhys Hoskins is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage today.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Because of Joe Ross's large platoon split, Jake Cronenworth will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. When it comes to his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .234 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .266.

American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Tyler Wade will have the handedness advantage over Joe Ross today... and the cherry on top, Ross has a large platoon split.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Jurickson Profar has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 25.68 ft/sec to 26.49 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). As it relates to plate discipline, Jurickson Profar's ability is quite good, sporting a 1.86 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 80th percentile.