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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+120 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
+1.5 -184 
|
|
4.13 |
-130
|
u8.5 -115 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total Home Runs (+584)
o0.5+775
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.90 |
-157
|
o9.5 -108
|
-1.5 +100 
|
|
5.02 |
+147
|
u10.0 -125 
|
+1.5 -113
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+101
|
o6.5 -118
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
3.96 |
-108
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+175
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.34 |
-186
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +115 
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Pirates last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
o0.5+181
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-115
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.15 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 vs. American League East.
Top Projection
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
-130
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.72 |
+120
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+243
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+162
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
4.94 |
-177
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 road games.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Mets last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.32 |
+125
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.91 |
-135
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.11 |
+110
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -194
|
|
5.35 |
-120
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +162
|
Minnesota
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 9-1 in White Sox last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-106
|
o7.5 -130
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.47 |
+105
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 on grass.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+123
|
o8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.62 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Houston
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 interleague games.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.19 |
+105
|
o9.5 -114
|
+1.5 -193
|
|
4.94 |
-115
|
u10.0 -115
|
-1.5 +158
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.65 |
-130
|
o11.5 -105
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.61 |
+120
|
u11.5 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
o0.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-125
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.35 |
+115
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -152
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+2000)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.21 |
+265
|
o8.0 -114
|
+2.5 -140
|
|
4.91 |
-300
|
u8.5 -120
|
-2.5 +115
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total RBIs (+470)
o1.5+470
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+190
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.72 |
-200
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +112
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Seattle
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
HL
Hao-Yu Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-highest humidity on the slate today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Kevin McGonigle has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Brice Turang o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Brice Turang is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Batting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage today.. Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Jackson Chourio has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+101)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I mean, this is as good as it gets. Two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially with Sale coming off a dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. You know he's in elite form right now. The Phillies' offense is heavily dependent on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider. The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.
Total RBIs
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ozzie Albies is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Cristopher Sanchez... and even better, Sanchez has a large platoon split.. Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Johnson doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Ryan Johnson in today's game.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Trevor Story o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+149)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Heriberto Hernandez will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.. Heriberto Hernandez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Otto Lopez will have an advantage in today's game.. Hitters such as Otto Lopez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shota Imanaga who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christopher Morel u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Matt Wilkinson... and even better, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Trevor Larnach o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Trevor Larnach will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde today.. Trevor Larnach pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Trevor Larnach o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Trevor Larnach will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde today.. Trevor Larnach pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league.. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Corey Seager will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league.. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Corey Seager will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Altuve u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jose Altuve faces a tough challenge in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
LaMonte Wade Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-320)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 16th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. LaMonte Wade Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 78th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest RF fences today.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total
o9.5 (-115)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight. If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA). On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a bullpen that was used up yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
Total RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Daniel Lynch throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an advantage today.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.9-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Feltner today.
Total RBIs
Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.9-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Trent Grisham will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup.. Trent Grisham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Ben Rice is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Ben Rice will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler today.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Kent today.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Hits
Freddie Freeman u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
