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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 29, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
-161 
|
o7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
3.52 |
+146
|
u7.5 -107
|
+1.5 -115 
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-0 in Luzardos last 8 starts vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 8-0 in Luzardos last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Luzardos last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Luzardos last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Miami
- Under is 5-0 in Gustos last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Gustos last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
o0.5 +290
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
+119
|
o8.5 -104 
|
+1.5 -168
|
|
4.61 |
-128
|
u8.5 +105 
|
-1.5 +162
|
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Rodriguezs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Rodriguezs last 5 road starts.
- Diamondbacks are 9-1 in Rodriguezs last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 7-0 in Pirates last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 8-1 in Jones' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Ryan Waldschmidt o0.5 Total RBIs (+375)
o0.5 +375
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.47 |
-112
|
o9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +138 
|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
u9.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -155
|
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Washington
- Under is 7-0-1 in Nationals last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Littells last 4 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Littells last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Alejandro Kirk o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5 +145
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.39 |
-111 
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
5.29 |
-102
|
u8.5 -116
|
+1.5 -168
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
NY Mets
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Mets last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Top Projection
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
o1.5 +270
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.64 |
+152
|
o7.5 +101
|
+1.5 -142
|
|
4.84 |
-162
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +139
|
Baltimore
- Orioles are 8-0 in Rogers' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Detroit
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Skubals last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
o1.5 +170
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.10 |
-121
|
o7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.10 |
+109
|
u7.5 -107
|
+1.5 -155
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Drohans last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Webbs last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Webbs last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Willy Adames o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
o1.5 +115
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+129
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -161
|
|
4.99 |
-142
|
u8.5 -116
|
-1.5 +146
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games.
- Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games as a road underdog.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
o1.5 +240
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
+125
|
o7.5 -103
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.35 |
-137
|
u7.5 -107
|
-1.5 +155
|
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Gores last 7 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Gores last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 4-1-1 in Rays last 6 home games.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Rays last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 11-3-1 in Rays last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5 +155
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-131
|
o8.5 -121
|
-1.5 +124
|
|
4.57 |
+119
|
u9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -131
|
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cantillos last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5 +150
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.26 |
-148
|
o7.0 -120
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
|
4.11 |
+134
|
u7.5 -116
|
+1.5 -135 
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Sales last 4 starts as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Carson Benge o0.5 Total RBIs (+325)
o0.5 +325
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+173
|
o8.5 -116
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
5.67 |
-191
|
u9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +110
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 road games.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Under is 8-0 in Royals last 8 during game 2 of a series.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Top Projection
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5 +150
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.95 |
-137
|
o7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +124
|
|
4.12 |
+124
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -137
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Schlittlers last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 road games.
- Yankees are 9-1 in Schlittlers last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 5-0 in Martins last 5 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Martins last 5 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Top Projection
Braden Montgomery o0.5 Total Home Runs (+880)
o0.5 +880
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.84 |
-103
|
o7.5 -116
|
-1.5 +158
|
|
4.45 |
-107
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -175
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Boyds last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Boyds last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Boyds last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Boyds last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0 in Mays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Mays last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5 +200
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.36 |
-131
|
o9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +119
|
|
4.63 |
+119
|
u10.0 -115
|
+1.5 -137
|
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wesneskis last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5 +155
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.89 |
-148
|
o10.5 -107
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
5.49 |
+130
|
u10.5 -102
|
+1.5 -116
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
o1.5 +148
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+146
|
o9.5 -110
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
6.40 |
-158
|
u9.5 -103
|
-1.5 +129
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mariners last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Hancocks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in Lauers last 7 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Lauers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 home games.
Top Projection
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-111)
o1.5 -110
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.08 |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.76 |
-127
|
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 on fieldturf.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 4-1-1 in Rays last 6 home games.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Rays last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.28 |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.24 |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 road games.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Obers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Twins are 5-0 in Obers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Obers last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.78 |
-116
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.24 |
+101
|
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 road games.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.77 |
-121
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.33 |
+105
|
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 11-2 in Cardinals last 13 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.12 |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-127
|
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 home starts.
- Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.71 |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
+119
|
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Reds are 6-0 in Greenes last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Reds last 7 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.42 |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.41 |
-127
|
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7.00 |
-155
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.83 |
+134
|
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 road starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
Athletics
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 5-2-1 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.07 |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.04 |
-132
|
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1-3 in Giants last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+134
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-161
|
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 on grass.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mariners last 4 vs. National League West.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
PHI
@
MIA
Wed, Jul 29 • 12:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 11th-best hitter in baseball.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Bryce Harper will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.. In the past 7 days, Bryce Harper's 70% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.1%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Bryce Harper grades out in the 95th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .377.
Strikeouts Thrown
Ryan Gusto u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Projection 3.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Gusto is projected to throw 72 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of the day.. Shane Livensparger projects as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. In his previous start, Ryan Gusto didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.
AZ
@
PIT
Wed, Jul 29 • 12:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Adrian Del Castillo u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 21st percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Adrian Del Castillo has been pulled from the game early 29% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 3rd-worst park in the game for left-handed home runs.. Among all parks, the 6th-highest fence height (on average) are at PNC Park.
Total Bases
Gabriel Moreno o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Gabriel Moreno's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. In the last week, Gabriel Moreno's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 13%.. Gabriel Moreno has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 92.7-mph in the past week.
TOR
@
WAS
Wed, Jul 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+245)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total Bases
Ernie Clement o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
ATL
@
NYM
Wed, Jul 29 • 1:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (+105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The higher-scoring path comes from Smith-Shawver’s likely workload limit, which could push Atlanta’s struggling bullpen into meaningful innings. The Mets own a 127 wRC+ and .219 ISO over the last week, while Manaea’s poor recent form gives the Braves a chance to answer early offensively as well.
Moneyline
ATL (-121)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
AJ Smith-Shawver returns from Tommy John after a strong rehab assignment, giving Atlanta a high-upside arm if he can provide four or five competitive innings. Sean Manaea’s recent struggles, including a 5.08 FIP and hard-contact issues, give the Braves enough of an offensive path to back him in Queens.
BAL
@
DET
Wed, Jul 29 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. In the league, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Spencer Torkelson will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in today's game.
Total Hits
Coby Mayo u0.5 Total Hits (+100)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Coby Mayo's BABIP talent is projected in the 25th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In today's matchup, Coby Mayo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (97th percentile).. Coby Mayo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. Sporting a .208 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Coby Mayo has performed in the 7th percentile.. Coby Mayo is in the 5th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (37.5% rate this year).
MIL
@
SF
Wed, Jul 29 • 3:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Oracle Park's RF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.. Rafael Devers will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Milwaukee Brewers only has 1 same-handed RP.
Total RBIs
Andrew Vaughn o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.. In the past week's worth of games, Andrew Vaughn's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 20%.. Andrew Vaughn has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 94.1-mph in the past two weeks.
COL
@
SD
Wed, Jul 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total Home Runs (+367)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I need a left-handed Colorado bat against Griffin Canning, who has surrendered 11 of his 12 home runs to left-handed hitters while allowing them to post a 1.004 OPS. He is one of my favorite pitchers to fade today, ranking seventh-worst among qualified starters in HardHit% while sitting in the bottom 50 in HR/9, HR/FB, and BlastContact%. Even if San Diego opens with another arm, it should still be Canning handling the bulk of the innings. Mickey Moniak projects as the Rockies' second-most likely hitter to go deep today behind Hunter Goodman (+280). Moniak doesn't walk much, but he takes aggressive hacks with a 74.7 mph bat speed that ranks second on the club. He also crushes right-handed pitching, posting a .952 OPS with 15 of his 17 home runs coming against righties. He also likely avoids San Diego's best left-handed reliever, as Adrian Morejon threw 32 pitches yesterday. The Padres are in a tough spot with their pitching staff. I make the fair price closer to +325.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Gabriel Hughes throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage today.
TEX
@
TB
Wed, Jul 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
TB (-137)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
The Rays are in a great spot at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season. MacKenzie Gore has struggled badly on the road, posting a 6.02 ERA away from home while allowing five earned runs in each of his road starts this month. Even if Gore survives early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July, while Tampa Bay's relief corps, who ranks among the month's best in both ERA and FIP, is well-positioned to keep the Rangers in check on a bullpen day.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Wyatt Langford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Casey Legumina today.. Wyatt Langford pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
CLE
@
CIN
Wed, Jul 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Jose Ramirez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team today.
Total Bases
Tyler Stephenson u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams playing today.. Tyler Stephenson has recorded a .230 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
ATL
@
NYM
Wed, Jul 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (+105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The starters appear to give a pathway to the Under tonight, but it's difficult to look past the recent offensive form of both ball clubs. Aside from Atlanta's brilliance at the dish since the break, it also has a .204 ISO over the last two weeks.
As for the Mets, they own a 134 wRC+ in their last six contests while carrying a .217 ISO. There's no shortage of production coming from this lineup at the moment.
Moneyline
ATL (-148)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Chris Sale continues to be absolutely lights out. In two starts since the All-Star break, the Braves SP owns a 0.96 FIP while walking just 0.69 hitters per nine innings. During that span, Sale has also limited opponents to a 3.4% barrel rate. He'll outduel Mets starter Christian Scott en route to a straight-up victory.
KC
@
MIN
Wed, Jul 29 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Lane Thomas o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 90°.. In the past two weeks, Lane Thomas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.5-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph lately.
Total Bases
Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 90°.. Among all the teams today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Ryan Jeffers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
NYY
@
CHW
Wed, Jul 29 • 7:40 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-115)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Cam Schlittler has struck out 32.2% of batters his past five starts while posting a 2.80 xFIP.
His success should continue in Chicago. The White Sox rank 18th in average vs. righties this season, and 24th during the month of July.
If Davis Martin doesn’t get blown up, this game should stay Under.
Bet to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-145)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Davis Martin has had a rough go of late. His ERA is 6.0 over the last 30 days and his underlying numbers (5.45 xFIP, 5.69 SIERA) indicate the poor results are warranted.
The Chicago White Sox will have a difficult time keeping up facing Cam Schlittler, who slots in the 99th percentile in Pitcher Run Value.
Bet New York to -160.
CHC
@
STL
Wed, Jul 29 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+228)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alex Bregman is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. In terms of plate discipline, Alex Bregman's talent is quite good, posting a 1.52 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 88th percentile.
Total RBIs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd today.
HOU
@
LAA
Wed, Jul 29 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jeremy Pena o0.5 Total Home Runs (+572)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Every Wednesday home run card needs a Houston bat or two. Grayson Rodriguez might be making his final start for a while, as he has been getting pummeled while trying to pitch through shoulder and back issues. His expected metrics back up the ugly ERA and FIP, and only one starter has allowed a higher HardHit% this season. He gets just 29% of his outs on the ground and owns the 13th-worst BlastContact% in baseball. Jeremy Peña should get five plate appearances out of the leadoff spot and might be the hottest home run hitter in baseball since the break. The right-hander has launched five homers over his last eight games, and with Yordan Alvarez priced below +200 today, this +574 number on Peña looks like a steal. Everything checks the boxes here: matchup, setting, form, and price. I'm playing this home run down to +450.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the 2nd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
BOS
@
ATH
Wed, Jul 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Among all major league stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 102°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Jahmai Jones o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jahmai Jones ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jahmai Jones is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Among all major league stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 102°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
SEA
@
LAD
Wed, Jul 29 • 10:10 PM ET
Total
u9.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Emerson Hancock has not pitched as well as his ERA suggests but he's still done some good things. He has limited homers effectively and he ranks in the 82nd percentile in walk rate.
The Seattle Mariners rank 29th with a putrid .084 ISO when facing lefties this month. Their lack of power will make scoring runs in bulk a big challenge.
Bet to -125.
Spread
LAD -1.5 (+120)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Emerson Hancock has a lot of red flags masked by a 3.16 ERA. He ranks in the 40th percentile in xERA, the 21st in barrel rate, and the 16th in hard hit rate.
That is not ideal heading into a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the majors in OPS and rank second in hard hit percentage against right-handed pitching.
Back LA to win by multiple to +110.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Total Hits
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits (-130)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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