The final places at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided in March, as 16 European nations enter a high-stakes playoff bracket with just four spots up for grabs.
With the draw finalized, sportsbooks have released World Cup playoff odds across match moneylines, To Qualify, and Path Winner markets, creating early betting opportunities in a volatile, single-elimination format. Alongside the UEFA playoffs, a separate inter-confederation playoff will also determine the final World Cup qualifiers from other regions.
Below, we break down the full 2026 World Cup playoff bracket, updated World Cup odds, and early betting analysis for every path to qualification.
March 2026 World Cup Playoffs — format, dates, and betting markets
Before diving into the bracket, it’s important to understand how the World Cup playoffs are structured and which betting markets offer the most value.
How the playoffs work
- Teams: 16 European nations
- Spots available: 4 World Cup berths
- Paths: Four single-elimination paths (A–D)
- Format: Two semifinals and one final per path
- Semifinal hosting: Higher-seeded nations host
- Final hosting: Determined by draw
Key dates
- March 26–31, 2026 (semifinals and finals)
Common betting markets
- Match moneyline / three-way result
- To Qualify
- Path Winner
- Total goals
- Correct score
This format places a premium on experience, home advantage, and tactical discipline — especially in low-margin knockout matches.
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Best betting angles for the 2026 World Cup Playoffs
The World Cup playoffs are a single-elimination minefield, but certain betting angles consistently offer more value than standard match moneylines.
- To Qualify markets over moneylines: Two wins are required to advance, making qualification prices more forgiving than single-match odds.
- Home favorites in semifinals: Higher-seeded nations hosting semifinal matches hold a significant edge in low-margin knockout fixtures.
- Unders in evenly priced matchups: With qualification on the line, conservative game plans often lead to lower-scoring contests.
- Path winners in softer brackets: Some qualification paths offer a clearer route than others, creating value beyond individual match odds.
2026 World Cup Playoffs bracket & draw
The official playoff draw has split the 16 European teams into four distinct qualification paths. Each path produces one World Cup qualifier.
Path A: Bracket and matchups
- Semifinal 1: Italy vs. Northern Ireland
- Semifinal 2: Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Path A Final: Winner Semifinal 1 vs Winner Semifinal 2
Path B: Bracket and matchups
- Semifinal 1: Ukraine vs. Sweden
- Semifinal 2: Poland vs. Albania
- Path B Final: Winner Semifinal 1 vs Winner Semifinal 2
Path C: Bracket and matchups
- Semifinal 1: Turkey vs Romania
- Semifinal 2: Slovakia vs Kosovo
- Path C Final: Winner Semifinal 1 vs Winner Semifinal 2
Path D: Bracket and matchups
- Semifinal 1: Denmark vs. North Macedonia
- Semifinal 2: Czech Republic vs. Ireland
- Path D Final: Winner Semifinal 1 vs Winner Semifinal 2
Each path is independent, meaning favorites like Italy and Denmark must survive two one-off matches to qualify.
Inter-continental Playoff format (2026 World Cup)
In addition to the UEFA playoffs, the final World Cup places will also be decided through a two-path intercontinental playoff, featuring teams from multiple confederations in a mini knockout tournament.
Path 1: Bolivia vs Suriname — the winner advances to face Iraq in the final
Path 2: New Caledonia vs Jamaica — the winner advances to face DR Congo in the final
Each path produces one World Cup qualifier, with the winners of the final matches punching their ticket to the 2026 tournament.
World Cup Playoff odds and early betting predictions
With the bracket set, sportsbooks have posted opening World Cup playoff odds for the March semifinals, along with early To Qualify prices.
Match 1: Italy vs Northern Ireland odds and prediction
| Italy |  |
Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| -334 | Moneyline | +750 |
| -700 | To Qualify | +450 |
| Over 2.5 (-125) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (+100) |
Betting breakdown: The Italians lost two games in qualifying, both to Norway, but enter this fixture as overwhelming favorites. Their pedigree is solid; they just need to put in a focused effort, and they should have no problems brushing aside Northern Ireland.
Match 2: Wales vs Bosnia-Herzegovina odds and prediction
| Wales | |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| -118 | Moneyline | +300 |
| -225 | To Qualify | +162 |
| Over 2.5 (+115) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (-150) |
Betting breakdown: After putting six goals past Northern Macedonia in their last World Cup qualifier, Wales will be confident they can overcome a Bosnia side that did most of their scoring vs. minnows Cyprus and San Marino.
Match 3: Ukraine vs. Sweden odds and prediction
| Ukraine | |
Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| +160 | Moneyline | +160 |
| -115 | To Qualify | -110 |
| Over 2.5 (+110) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (-143) |
Betting breakdown: Ukraine are a short priced favorite here after giving France a good scare in Group D. Sweden were awful, notching just two points in qualifying while scoring just four goals and conceding 12.
Match 4: Poland vs. Albania odds and prediction
| Poland | |
Albania |
|---|---|---|
| -167 | Moneyline | +445 |
| -350 | To Qualify | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (+110) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (-143) |
Betting breakdown: Poland finished second behind the Netherlands and had a very good qualifying campaign by their standards. Their goalscoring prowess should be enough to get them by Albania, who netted just seven goals in eight matches.
Match 5: Turkey vs Romania odds and prediction
| Turkey | |
Romania |
|---|---|---|
| -188 | Moneyline | +425 |
| -350 | To Qualify | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (-134) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (+105) |
Betting breakdown: Turkey had a strong qualifying campaign, giving Spain a tough time. They netted 17 times in six games, and should find the sailing much smoother vs. Romania.
Match 6: Slovakia vs Kosovo odds and prediction
| Slovakia | |
Kosovo |
|---|---|---|
| -120 | Moneyline | +280 |
| -225 | To Qualify | +162 |
| Over 2.5 (+130) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (-167) |
Betting breakdown: Slovakia beat Germany, which is a solid building point, while Kosovo managed just six goals in six games. This fixture will be cagey throughout. I'd play the Under.
Match 7: Denmark vs. North Macedonia odds and prediction
| Denmark | |
North Macedonia |
|---|---|---|
| -350 | Moneyline | +750 |
| -800 | To Qualify | +500 |
| Over 2.5 (-150) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (+115) |
Betting breakdown: Denmark had every opportunity to win Group C but failed and now must take on a North Macedonia side that lacks real conviction. The Danes should progress.
Match 8: Czech Republic vs. Ireland odds and prediction
| Czech Republic | |
Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| -118 | Moneyline | +270 |
| -225 | To Qualify | +162 |
| Over 2.5 (+107) | Total Goals | Under 2.5 (-138) |
Betting breakdown: The Czech Republic got through a very manageable group, but now has to take on an Ireland side that's full of confidence, having won three straight games while outscoring the opposition 6-2. I'll bank on goals in this fixture.
Updated World Cup futures odds — Impact of the Playoff draw
The March playoff draw has also influenced 2026 World Cup futures odds, particularly for teams still fighting to qualify.
| Country | |
|---|---|
 Spain |
+400 |
 England |
+550 |
 France |
+700 |
 Brazil |
+800 |
 Argentina |
+800 |
 Portugal |
+1100 |
 Germany |
+1200 |
 Netherlands |
+1600 |
 Norway |
+2500 |
 Italy |
+3300 |
 Colombia |
+3300 |
 Belgium |
+3300 |
 Uruguay |
+4000 |
 USA |
+5000 |
 Mexico |
+5000 |
 Morocco |
+6600 |
 Ecuador |
+6600 |
 Croatia |
+6600 |
 Denmark |
+8000 |
 Japan |
+8000 |
 Switzerland |
+8000 |
 Sweden |
+10000 |
 Canada |
+15000 |
Odds as of 1-9.
Market movement after the draw
Books have already adjusted World Cup playoff odds and some World Cup futures prices based on the draw:
Shorteners: Nobody has shortened yet, but Italy remains the top choice from the playoff nations, holding steady at +3300.
Drifters: The Danes have seen their World Cup odds drift from +6600 to +8000 after the draw.
2026 World Cup playoff schedule
Here is the full World Cup playoff schedule for March, including dates, kickoff times, venues, and broadcast information.
| Date | Match | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday, March 26 | Italy vs Northern Ireland | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| Thursday, March 26 | Wales vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff |
| Thursday, March 26 | Ukraine vs Sweden | Estadi Ciutat de Valencia, Valencia |
| Thursday, March 26 | Poland vs Albania | PGE Narodowy, Warsaw |
| Thursday, March 26 | Turkey vs Romania | Tupras Stadium, Istanbul |
| Thursday, March 26 | Slovakia vs Kosovo | Tehelne pole, Bratislava |
| Thursday, March 26 | Denmark vs North Macedonia | Parken Stadium, Copenhagen |
| Thursday, March 26 | Czech Republic vs Ireland | Fortuna Arena, Prague |
| Thursday, March 26 | New Caledonia vs Jamaica | TBD |
| Thursday, March 26 | Bolivia vs Suriname | TBD |
World Cup Playoff draw reactions
With the bracket locked in, certain nations will feel they received a favorable World Cup playoff path, while others face a brutal route just to reach the finals. Here are our early reactions from a betting perspective.
Winner of the Draw
- Italy: The Azzurri desperately need to avoid a third consecutive playoff elimination after being bounced by Sweden and North Macedonia in the past two editions. They couldn't have picked a better semifinal opponent, but the true test will likely come against Wales in the Final.
Losers of the Draw
- Denmark: The Danes had Group C all but wrapped up before conceding two late goals to Scotland to lose and ultimately finish second. With a tough match against North Macedonia up first, followed by a potential meeting with two tricky sides (Czech/Ireland), the Danes could be left ruing their missed opportunity.
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2026 FIFA World Cup Playoff Draw FAQ
The World Cup playoffs are split into four paths (A, B, C, and D), each featuring two semifinals and a final. The winner of each path qualifies for the World Cup, meaning four teams ultimately claim the remaining spots at the tournament.
All World Cup playoff fixtures are scheduled for March 23-31, with semifinals played first and path finals following shortly after. Exact kickoff times and venues are confirmed once the draw is complete.
A total of four European teams will qualify via the playoffs, with one nation emerging from each of the four paths to secure a place at the 2026 World Cup.
Sportsbooks typically release World Cup playoff betting odds shortly after the draw is finalized, starting with match moneylines and To Qualify markets before expanding into totals, props, and Path Winner odds.
For many bettors, the most popular markets include To Qualify, Path Winner futures, and match totals, especially in tight ties where a low-scoring or cagey approach is expected. Travel, home advantage, and injuries can all create edges the numbers don’t fully capture in the opening lines.
