West Ham vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Tension in London Derby

The first game in this week’s Premier League slate sees a tense tilt in East London as rivals West Ham welcome Chelsea to the London Stadium. There is no love lost between these two sets of fans and this should be an exciting clash with both teams in desperate need of three points.

Can West Ham pick up a rare victory or will Chelsea finally be able to kickstart their season? Don’t miss our West Ham vs Chelsea EPL betting picks and predictions for Saturday, February 11.

West Ham vs Chelsea best odds

West Ham vs Chelsea picks and predictions

If you’re not from the area, then you might not realize just how spicy Saturday’s Premier League clash between West Ham and Chelsea can be. Sure, West Ham’s biggest rivals are Millwall, and Chelsea have been more worried about title rivals than local rivals in recent years, but this is a game that matters to large parts of London.

A victory in this derby really couldn’t come at a better time for either manager — David Moyes or Graham Potter — but a defeat really could be costly. Neither club expected their season to go as badly as it is, with West Ham one spot above the relegation spots and Chelsea sat ninth, firmly midtable in the Premier League.

The best bet for West Ham vs. Chelsea isn’t based around the result though, something tricky to gauge given the inconsistency in both team’s performances throughout the year. Instead, it’ll be based on something far more consistent, much to the detriment of his team, and that is Conor Gallagher’s impressive ability to get booked.

Gallagher has started just 12 games for Chelsea this season and found himself booked eight times, although he admittedly has come on as a substitute 14 times. In 19 Premier League appearances, with only 10 as a starter, he’s received four yellow cards and a red. He is a player who’s no-nonsense style, hard tackling, and non-stop workrate seemingly make him more likely to get booked.

With the arrival of World Cup winner Enzo Fernandez, and Mateo Kovacic and Denis Zakaria returning from injury, it’s likely that Gallagher will be feeling pressure to perform, knowing that he needs to fight for his starting spot if he has any hopes of keeping it. 

Not only that but Saturday’s game will be officiated by Craig Pawson, who has already brandished 57 yellows this season in just 13 Premier League games, an average of 4.38 per match.

Given the referee in charge of West Ham vs. Chelsea, the fierce local rivalry, and the threat for his position, I can see Conor Gallagher’s commitment to the Chelsea cause getting himself in trouble and getting booked in this game.

My best bet: Conor Gallagher to get booked (+220 at Unibet)

West Ham vs Chelsea side analysis

If you’re confident of the result in this game, then you can get good value. The home side are as big as +240 and Chelsea, who have spent incredible amounts in the January window, are +125. The problem with both of these teams is just how inconsistent they are. This is a game that Chelsea should win, but they’ve failed in plenty of winnable games this season, and it’ll take time to get the new players gelling, so I’d personally avoid betting on the result.

West Ham’s 3-4-2-1 is more of a five at the back with Emerson and Coufal dropping back in and defending against Chelsea’s pace in the forward positions. The midfield of Rice and Paqueta is key to any hopes David Moyes will have of his team winning and they must get the better of their opposite numbers. Up front, we’ll likely see Benrahma and Bowen support Michail Antonio, who has failed to find his best form this year, scoring just twice in the league.

We expect to see Chelsea in a 4-3-3 with Reece James and Ben Chilwell both in the fullback positions, it being many months since we last saw them operate together. Thiago Silva and the impressive Benoit Badiashile will be at the heart of the defense. 

The midfield of Fernandez, Gallagher and Mount will need to create more chances for the likes of Havertz and Mudryk, who both looked poor last week against Fulham. Chelsea really should win this but based on recent form it’s hard to be confident enough in either side to risk your money on them.

West Ham vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis

At -145 it’s clear that Under 2.5 goals is the way to go if you’re betting on the total for West Ham vs. Chelsea, especially with neither team in great form currently.

There have been Under 2.5 goals in 80% of West Ham’s home Premier League games, which probably explains just why the fans are so unhappy. Chelsea haven’t been in the highest-scoring of games either with 57.1% of their games this season seeing Under 2.5 goals. In fact, just one of their seven games since the World Cup break has had three of more goals.

West Ham vs Chelsea game info

West Ham vs Chelsea key injuries

West Ham: Maxwell Cornet AML (Out), Gianluca Scamacca STR (Out), Kurt Zouma CB (Out), Thilo Kehrer CB (Questionable).
Chelsea: Armando Broja STR (Out), Christian Pulisic FWR (Out), N’Golo Kante CM (Out), Edouard Mendy GK (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Questionable), Mateo Kovacic CM (Questionable), Denis Zakaria CM (Questionable).

West Ham vs Chelsea recent form

Teams	Last five matches
West Ham	D-W-L-D-L
Chelsea	D-D-W-L-L

West Ham vs Chelsea weather

It will be cloudy with temperatures in the high 40s at kick-off. There will be light winds and virtually no chance of rain.

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