The FA Cup is back and Friday sees Tottenham vs. Burnley in the third round of the world’s most celebrated domestic cup competition.
It’s always a special time of year when the third round of the FA Cup arrives and Spurs and Burnley meet with both dreaming of reaching the final at Wembley in May.
Will Spurs be able to come through this tie against relegation-threatened Burnley? Don’t miss our free betting picks for Tottenham vs. Burnley to find out.
Tottenham vs Burnley best odds
 Tottenham |
 Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| -193 | Moneyline | +480 |
| +370 | Draw | +370 |
| Over 3 (-112) | Total | Under 3 (-107) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 4, 2024.
Tottenham vs Burnley picks and predictions
It might be an all-Premier League tie but make no mistake, this is an FA Cup meeting between Tottenham and Burnley.
The Premier League might have taken a break this week to make room for the FA Cup but we have to be honest here and accept it’ll still be overshadowing this fixture and playing on the minds of the managers. We often see teams rotate their lineups in the FA Cup and I wouldn’t expect to see anything different here.
Spurs will be forced to rotate with Son Heung-Min, Pape Matar Sarr, and Yves Bissouma all away on international duty at the Asian Cup and AFCON, respectively. Add that to a big injury list that features the likes of Micky van de Ven, James Maddison, and Cristian Romero, and we might see Ange Postecoglou unable to make wholesale changes.
Arguably, Spurs have been the Premier League’s big entertainers this year and that’s in part down to the way Postecoglou sets up his team. They go out to attack no matter the opposition and that’s refreshing to watch.
I also think that ideology is likely to mean ‘Big Ange’ might not want to rest as many players as teams often do. Combine that with Spurs’ long trophy drought and the possibility of winning the North London club some silverware makes this feel like an opportunity not to be wasted.
We'll see some changes with the likes of Bryan Gil, Eric Dier, and Fraser Forster all having a good chance of playing, but whether it’s down to the injuries or Postecoglou’s wishes, we'll see some starters play. I’d expect to see Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski start in the attacking positions, players who will cause Burnley issues.
Burnley have some issues themselves and with the club five points off safety in the Premier League, I think there’s a very real chance we see manager Vincent Kompany rotate heavily. It’s certainly what I'd be doing in his situation. Their top priority is survival in the Premier League.
Regardless of the likes of Son, Maddison, and others missing for various reasons, this Spurs team is far better than Burnley. In front of their home crowd, under the floodlights of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I expect them to win comfortably and by several goals.
After all, they’ve scored 42 Premier League goals to Burnley’s 20, which shows the gulf in class between the two front lines.
My best bet: Tottenham -1.5 (+135 at TonyBet)
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Tottenham vs Burnley same-game parlay
Spurs to win by 2+ goals
Spurs to be winning at halftime
Both teams to score: Yes
I expect to see less rotation in the Spurs team because of a mix of injuries and players on international duty, as well as Postecoglou’s ethos. If they play anywhere near their best side, they should win this one easily, just as they did when they beat Burnley 5-2 on the road in September.
I’m also backing Spurs to be winning at halftime. This is a team that plays fast and comes out of the game quickly. If you look in-depth at Premier League data, you can see Spurs have only been losing two games at halftime, the second-best record of anyone in the league. With 19 first-half goals, they’ve scored more than anybody except Man City in the first 45.
Finally, I’d also back both teams to score. We saw it when these two teams last met with Spurs winning 5-2 and we’ve seen 75% of all of Tottenham’s Premier League games see both teams scoring. With the injuries in the backline, it’s even more likely that we see Burnley score a consolation goal.
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Tottenham vs Burnley side and Over/Under analysis
I’m backing Spurs -1.5 as my best bet for Spurs vs. Burnley so it should be pretty clear who I favor on the moneyline but at -204, I wouldn’t recommend betting Spurs. It’s too short of a price for real value even though I’m certain they win. The draw at +360 or a Burnley win at +480 also don’t appeal to me.
You can get -154 on both teams to score which feels like a better way to bet the game. You can get Over 2.5 goals at -182 or the Under at +145. I wouldn’t back this despite thinking we're sure to see 3+ goals.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tottenham vs Burnley game info
| Location: | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Friday, January 5, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
| Weather: | Temp: 41F, POP: 92%, Wind: 2 mph, Conditions: A dry and cloudy day in North London |
Tottenham vs Burnley key injuries
Tottenham: Ivan Perisic RW (Out), Micky van de Ven CB (Out), James Maddison CAM (Out), Ryan Sessegnon LB (Out), Manor Solomon FWR (Out), Cristian Romero CB (Out), Son Heung-Min FWR (Out), Pape Matar Sarr CM (Out), Yves Bissouma CM (Out).
Burnley: Jack Cork CM (Out), Luca Koleosho LW (Out).
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