Southampton vs Manchester City Picks and Predictions: Keeping Man City in Check

Man City enter the weekend 11 points clear of their nearest rivals and they’ll look to extend that as they travel to Southampton. For Southampton fans it’s a chance to see their team against the best team in the country, if not Europe, and they’ll be crossing their fingers for a historic upset.

Will we see a shock or will Man City continue their march to the title? Don’t miss our Southampton vs. Man City tips and predictions.

Southampton vs Manchester City match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Southampton vs Manchester City betting tips

• Prediction: Draw (+550)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+175)
• Best bet: Mohammed Salisu to get booked (+300)

Predictions made on 1/20/2022 at 5:55 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Southampton vs Manchester City game info

• Location: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, UK
• Date: Saturday, January 22, 2022
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, fubo TV

Southampton vs Manchester City betting preview

Weather

The weather in Southampton will be dipping below 40 degrees but with only minor clouds and no rain.

Injuries

Southampton: Alex McCarthy GK (Out), Tino Livramento RB (Out), Will Smallbone CM (Out), Moussa Djenepo LW (Out).
Manchester City: Luka Ilic AMF (Questionable), Riyad Mahrez RW (Out).

Southampton vs Manchester City predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

Manchester City travel to Southampton to face the Saints and their season couldn’t be in a better position. For the first few months of this season it looked like they’d have a real challenge on their hands to retain the Premier League trophy with Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool fit and healthy again, Cristiano Ronaldo back at Man United, and Thomas Tuchel set for his first full season in charge of Chelsea. United fell away quickly and over the past two months, Liverpool and Chelsea have tried to keep pace with Man City but have dropped key points.

Southampton didn’t start the season with such lofty hopes. Having finished 15th in the Premier League last time out, they needed to see improvement and Ralph Hasenhüttl has achieved that, with the team sitting in 12th heading into this weekend. 

Both teams come into this game in different degrees of form. The hosts have won just two of their past five in the league, losing their most recent game 3-1 to Wolves. Man City have won their past 12 Premier League games in a row, including some big wins over some of the league’s best teams. 

Pep Guardiola’s team isn't just the best in the Premier League, it's the best team on the planet and it isn’t really close. On Saturday, they’ll be missing Riyad Mahrez, who’ll be returning soon from the African Cup of Nations, but they otherwise have a clean bill of health. 

We’re likely to be subjected to Pep-roulette again with any of Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, and Raheem Sterling starting in the front three. Behind that, the team is a lot more stable, with the midfield three of Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, and Rodri the best around at the moment. Rodri sits and breaks up the play and gives De Bruyne and Silva the platform to shine. Silva, in particular, has taken a huge leap and is arguably second to just Mohamed Salah as the league’s best player. Southampton will need to lock him down. The problem is keeping him under wraps allows another of City’s talents to do damage.

Southampton are serious underdogs and the bookies only give them a +900 chance of winning this game. Despite their league position, Southampton have turned up when facing the league’s better squads. In the past month alone they’ve beaten West Ham and tied 1-1 with Tottenham despite having just 10 men from 50 minutes. Earlier in the season, they took points off Man United with a 1-1 draw, and when they traveled to the Etihad to face Man City in September, the game finished 0-0.

If Southampton are to get anything from Saturday's game, they need all their players to play at their best. The midfield of James Ward-Prowse and Oriol Romeu will need to match their opposition's work rate and Southampton’s fullbacks will need to focus on their defensive duties. Southampton's on-loan striker Armando Broja has played brilliantly of late and if he could snatch a goal then you never know what could happen.

Man City should and likely will win this game. They’re the best team on earth and capable of swatting away any rival. However, they can sometimes drop points when they probably shouldn’t. And at odds of -400, I just can’t recommend betting on them. If you have to place a small wager on the game, I’d recommend the draw. Southampton are capable of nullifying opposing attacks and did manage to tie their last game against City, so at odds of +550, it’s far more attractive.

Prediction: Draw (+550)

Over/Under analysis

Again, there’s far better value on betting the Under here than there is the Over. Only Liverpool have scored more goals than Man City, so it’s understandable why the odds are so short on Over 2.5 goals, but it just isn’t worth doing.

Firstly, we know that Southampton have performed well against City in the past, drawing the game earlier in the season 0-0. Another key stat that points toward Southampton being able to keep the score low is that a huge 70% of their home games have finished with Under 2.5 goals. 

At a generous price of +175, it’s the smart play to back Under 2.5 goals.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+175)

Best bet

Simon Hooper will be officiating the game and although he isn’t one of the most card-happy referees in the Premier League, giving out just 23 cards in seven games, the cards markets are still worth exploring.

Whenever Man City come to town, it’s often worth not worrying about who the ref is because it’s going to be a difficult game for the weaker team. City’s slick passing tires opponents out and their quick feet and pace are magnets for bookings.

Mohammed Salisu will likely start on the left of Southampton’s back three and is a booking waiting to happen against the likes of Grealish, Sterling, and Foden. In just 19 Premier League starts, the Ghanaian has already picked up seven yellow cards and one red. A talented defender who is particularly good in the air, he has improved Southampton’s backline but his tendency for ill-discipline and rash challenges make him a bettor's dream. Let’s put our money on Salisu struggling with City’s attack and finding himself in the referee’s book.

Pick: Mohammed Salisu to get booked (+300)

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