We have had three rounds of matches in the 2025-26 Champions League group phase, and certain trends have emerged.
The first is how few shock results have occurred. Favorites are prevailing. This week's UEFA Champions League best bets reflect this.
The second is what a high-scoring competition this is. Fifty-four games have produced 3.71 goals per fixture. The goals count is higher than we are seeing in Europe’s major leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga). This is something to take into account when making goal market selections.
All Matchday 4 free betting picks below are from fixtures taking place on Tuesday this week.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Matchday 4
Slavia Prague vs Arsenal
Arsenal -1.5 (-133 at Sports Interaction)
You can make a strong case that Arsenal are Europe’s best team right now. They should win with relative ease on this trip to the Czech Republic.
Mikel Arteta’s visitors have taken maximum points from their opening three Champions League group phase games. They are top of the Premier League (W8-D1-L1) as well. Their defensive record is so impressive you need to read it twice to ensure you are not mistaken: they have kept 13 clean sheets in 15 fixtures in all competitions this season.
Slavia Prague are the Czech League leaders, but this is a different level of football altogether. I predict a convincing away win for the Gunners, who appear close to unstoppable right now.
- Date: Tuesday, November 4
- Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Fortuna Arena, Prague, Czech Republic
- Where to watch: Paramount+
PSG vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich Over 1.5 team total goals (-137 at Sports Interaction)
Bayern Munich would have something to say about the claim made above that Arsenal are Europe’s strongest side. They will want to prove that they are the continent’s top dogs when they face Champions League holders PSG on Tuesday night.
The German giants have started the season with 15 straight wins in all competitions. They have scored two or more goals in all 15 matches. Their average goals scored per game count is 3.86.
PSG’s defence can be breached, as Bayer Leverkusen showed when they scored twice against the side from the French capital on Matchday 3 (albeit in a 7-2 defeat). Paris goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier - still adapting after his summer move from Lille - lacks the shot-stopping ability of the man he replaced between the posts, Gianluigi Donnarumma (now at Man City).
The price on Bayern scoring two or more goals is too good to overlook.
- Date: Tuesday, November 4
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Juventus vs Sporting
Juventus moneyline (-105 at Sports Interaction)
Juventus appointed Luciano Spalletti as their new manager last week. Promising early signs suggest he will get more out of the super-talented bunch of players at his disposal than predecessor Igor Tudor did.
Spalletti’s reign began with a 2-1 (away) triumph vs Cremonese last weekend. Juventus made some mistakes in defense, but their attacking intent was clear. The signs of confidence returning to their ranks were unmistakable.
Sporting are W0-D2-L1 from their opening three Champions League games. They are flying high in the Portuguese League, too (2nd place behind FC Porto, with a W8-D1-L1 record).
But this is a bad time to face Juventus. I take the hosts to win.
- Date: Tuesday, November 4
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Turin, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Liverpool vs Real Madrid
Draw (+280 at Sports Interaction)
Liverpool ended a run of seven straight defeats in all competitions with a 2-0 (home) win vs Aston Villa last Saturday. Concerns linger over the Reds’ form, but the weekend victory will have calmed some nerves in the home camp.
Real Madrid are W3-D0-L0 from their opening three Champions League games. They are top of the La Liga table, too (W10-D0-L1). Even at this early stage of the season, Xabi Alonso’s side are understandably clear favorites to win the La Liga title thanks to their 2-1 (home) victory vs their only serious title rivals, Barcelona, last month.
It is hard to see Real losing, given how they are performing. Yet I would expect Liverpool to raise their game for this massive Anfield outsider. Liverpool are +155 to win, Real +145. As the outsider of three, the Tie (+280) is the smart selection.
- Date: Tuesday, November 4
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Both teams to score — Yes (-161 at Sports Interaction)
There will be an urgency to win from both sides given their records where they are in the table.
Napoli are W1-D0-L2 from their opening three games. Eintracht Frankfurt have an identical record. Anything other than victory would leave these clubs nervously contemplating their chances of reaching the knockout phase.
The need to win should lead to an open encounter. The stats point towards one, anyway: two of Napoli’s three Champions League games have featured Over 2.5 Goals. The same applies to all three Eintracht Frankfurt fixtures (all of which, remarkably, finished 5-1).
Over 2.5 Goals is -182; Both Teams to Score Yes is -161. At better odds, the latter is my pick.
- Date: Tuesday, November 4
- Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Matchday 4
Liverpool vs Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappe to score (-111 at Sports Interaction)
The price of -111 on Mbappe finding the net represents good value given his scoring record this season.
He has netted in 12 of the 14 Liga and Champions League games he has started. Expressed in percentages, the disparity is clear: his odds suggest he has a 53 per cent chance of scoring, while he has in fact scored in 86 per cent of the matches he has taken part in.
Bodo/Glimt vs Monaco
Aleksandr Golovin 1+ Total Shots on Target (-128 at Sports Interaction)
Monaco playmaker Golovin is one of four players competing for two attacking midfield positions in manager Sebastien Pocognoli’s favored 3-4-2-1 formation. He can also play in one of the two central midfield slots.
If Golovin starts, expect him to get forward. He scored twice in Monaco’s 5-3 (away) win vs Nantes on Oct 29, and had two attempts on goal in their 0-1 (home) defeat vs Paris FC last weekend.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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