Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Picks and Predictions: The Villans Break Out

Forest have allowed their opponents to score at least three goals in all of their previous four games, and we like their defensive woes to continue. Read more in our Premier League betting picks to see why we're backing Aston Villa's offense on Monday.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 8, 2022 • 18:40 ET • 4 min read
Philippe Coutinho Aston Villa EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Nottingham Forest play under the lights on Monday for the second week in a row as they welcome Aston Villa to the City Ground.

Forest sit at the bottom of the Premier League, but only four points back of Villa. Can Forest claw back some ground on their relegation rivals, or will Aston Villa condemn them to another defeat?

Don’t miss our Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa tips and predictions.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa best odds

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa picks and predictions

On Monday, Aston Villa travel to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest. This is the second week in a row in which Nottingham Forest have played on a Monday, and they’ll be hoping that they don’t fare as badly as last week when they lost 4-0 to Leicester City.

After that defeat to Leicester, there were question marks over Steve Cooper’s future. He was one of the highest-rated upcoming managers in England, but things started to go wrong after he performed a miracle and got them promoted.

This week, rather than sacking him, they signed Cooper to a new deal. It was a bold move and a refreshing change from the usual Premier League tactic of firing anybody who has a few bad games. They’ve invested in the manager, and Cooper will be hoping that with the additional authority that his job security provides, he’ll be able to turn this team around and keep Forest up.

The biggest problem for Forest is that they still look so disjointed, hardly a surprise given that they signed enough players during the summer to fill two different starting lineups. It’s clear that the manager has yet to find his best team, but because of this, it’s caused problems on defense.

They’ve conceded 21 goals in just eight games, and giving up four to relegation rivals Leicester last week was a serious concern. 

Aston Villa have enough attacking players to put more goals in the back of the net. Danny Mings is a proven goalscorer, Ollie Watkins is more than capable, and Emi Buendia and Phillipe Coutinho should be able to chip in as well.

I’m expecting Aston Villa to find their offense on Monday and score at least two goals. You can even get a juicy price of +400 if they get three, but I’d advise playing it safe and taking Over 1.5.

My best bet: Aston Villa team total Over 1.5 (+122 at Caesars)

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Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa side analysis

Earlier in the season, it looked like Steven Gerrard’s time as Aston Villa was about to come to an end. I’m not convinced he’ll be in the job in the long term, but it has to be said that there has been improvement with the team.

Their last three results have given them five points, with a win over Southampton and two draws with Man City and Leeds. It is essential that Gerrard and his Villa team continue to develop in these next few weeks. A loss against bottom-of-the-table Forest is the sort of result that instantly puts him on the hot seat, and the team really should be winning this match.

You can get +115 on Villa winning this game, and I’d say that’s a good price and one worth taking. Gerrard should send his team out in a 4-3-3 formation, with Buendia and Coutinho supporting Watkins.

The Forest attack isn’t at all easy to predict, but I'm expecting to see Taiwo Awoniyi down the middle with Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson behind him.

My big concern for Forest continues to be the sheer volume of players they signed this summer, which makes team cohesion so hard to develop. I don’t think those problems would have been sorted by now, so it would be wise to back the away side to win.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Over/Under analysis

It really can’t be overstated how bad Forest looked defensively last week, and I don’t believe a week of training can fix that.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of Villa’s four games on the road, but I’d back it to cash in this spot.

If you look back through the years, you’ll also see that Over 2.5 has hit in seven of the last eight meetings between these two clubs in all competitions.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa game info

Location: City Ground, Nottingham, UK
Date: Monday, October 10, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network Universo

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa key injuries

Nottingham Forest: Moussa Niakhate CB (Out), Omar Richards LB (Out).
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), Lucas Digne LB (Out), Ludwig Augustinsson LB (Out), Diego Carlos CB (Out), Matty Cash RB (Questionable), Calum Chambers CB (Questionable).

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa weather

It’ll be a dry and sunny winter’s day in Nottingham, with temperatures around 50 degrees Fahrenheit when this game kicks off.

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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