Liverpool vs Villarreal Picks and Predictions: Can't Stop the Reds

Wednesday sees our second Anglo-Spanish tie of the Champions League semifinals as Liverpool welcome Villarreal to Anfield.

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are European heavyweights but Villarreal won’t be scared, having already eliminated other famous European names such as Juventus and Bayern Munich.

Surely Villarreal can’t pull off another huge shock, or can they? Don’t miss our Liverpool vs. Villarreal tips and predictions.

Liverpool vs Villarreal match odds

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Liverpool vs Villarreal betting tips

• Prediction: Liverpool (-350)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (+140)
• Best bet: Capoue to get booked (+240)
• Bonus SGP: Capoue and Parejo both to get booked (+1,200)

Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Liverpool vs Villarreal game info

• Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+

Liverpool vs Villarreal betting preview

Weather

A dry day in Liverpool will see this game's kick-off at 8:00 pm local time, with temperatures in the mid-50s and with cloudy skies.

Injuries

Liverpool: Roberto Firmino STR (Questionable).
Villarreal: Alberto Moreno LB (Out), Francis Coquelin DM (Questionable), Gerard Moreno STR (Questionable).

Liverpool vs Villarreal predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

The second instalment in the Champions League semifinals gives us our second Anglo-Spanish game with Liverpool facing Villarreal at Anfield. The bookmakers think we’re only going to see one result on Wednesday but given the shocks that the Yellow Submarine have pulled off so far, could they do it once again?

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool come into this game in incredible form. They’re second in the Premier League, just one point behind Man City, but with 24 wins in the league this season and the League Cup already in the bag, as well as an FA Cup final appearance to come, there is plenty of talk of pulling off a historic quadruple.

What’s most impressive is how free-scoring Liverpool have been. In their past six games, they’ve notched 17 goals. That's made even more special when you consider they’ve played Manchester City twice in that span and had both legs of a Champions League quarterfinal too.

Liverpool have dominated European play, scoring eight goals in their four previous knockout games as well as scoring 18 times in just six group-play games. Some people have argued that in facing Inter Milan and Benfica in the knockouts, and now Villarreal, they’ve had an easy path to the final but that is probably a bit harsh.

An easy path isn’t an argument you can level at Villarreal, who have beaten both Juventus and Bayern Munich to reach this point. In both ties against those blue-chip teams, it’s been expected that they’d lose but Unai Emery has drilled his team to perfection. At times they’ve had a bit of luck on their side, but it’s been hard to fault the hard work and industry that the team has come up with.

Klopp will send out his team in their usual 4-3-3 formation and it’s likely that they’ll go for the jugular in this first leg, trying to kill off Villarreal.

He’ll likely start the fearsome attacking trio of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Luis Diaz, after giving the Colombian a rest at the weekend. That attack is arguably the most terrifying in Europe, with its blend of technique and speed.

Elsewhere, it’s expected that Ibrahima Konate will return to partner Virgil van Dijk with Jordan Henderson replacing Naby Keita, with both players having been rested against Everton.

You can expect Thiago to see a lot of the ball again, using his passing to try and break through Villarreal and create opportunities for that trio upfront. The incisiveness of his passing will be key because Emery will set up Villarreal to sit deep and force Liverpool to try and break them down.

Pau Torres and Raul Albiol will need to be at their best for Villarreal to keep Liverpool out but equally key will be how they transition the ball forwards, with that being one of Torres’ specialties.

Etienne Capoue will provide the legs in the midfield, with Dani Parejo tasked with creating chances. The big question is whether their Spanish striker Gerard Moreno will be fit enough to play. Emery would like to have him available from the outset but it’s possible that he starts the game on the bench.

That will leave a lot of pressure on Arnaut Danjuma, who put Bayern Munich to the sword last time, but I think he may struggle against a central defensive partnership with the tools of van Dijk and Konate.

I rarely like betting on things as short as -350 but it really is hard to see this game finishing with anything but a Liverpool win. 

Prediction: Liverpool (-350 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We know about Liverpool’s threat in front of goal, having scored at least two goals in nine of their last 10 Champions League games, but I’m going to go against that trend and back Under 2.5 here.

We know how cagey first ties can be and the only way Villarreal can reach the final is if they keep Liverpool from scoring at their usual frequency. 

Unai Emery won’t be sending his team out to go toe-to-toe with Liverpool. In the first leg of their quarterfinal tie in Munich, he sent out his team to keep things tight at the back, resulting in a 1-1 draw. I think Liverpool are better than Bayern and should win at Anfield, but I am confident that it’ll be lower scoring than many suggest, with the Reds winning 1-0 or 2-0.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (+140 at FanDuel)

Best bet

We absolutely love a card bet in the Champions League and there’s one who looks very attractive here. Etienne Capoue is more than familiar with Liverpool, having played against them during his time in the Premier League with Tottenham and Watford. 

The 33-year-old Frenchman is going to have a hard day’s work in front of him, facing Fabinho and Thiago in the midfield, and it’s absolutely key for Villarreal’s hopes that he does a great job in shielding his defenders. That’s the sort of role which often sees you getting booked and he leads Villarreal with seven bookings in La Liga action this season, while having had another in the Champions League.

If you’re looking for something a little longer odds, then you could perhaps combine a Capoue booking in a same-game parlay with his midfield partner Dani Parejo, who has three yellows in the Champions League this season. 

Pick: Etienne Capoue to get booked (+240 at DraftKings)

Pick: Etienne Capoue and Dani Parejo both to get booked (+1,200 at bet365)

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